Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security

[Surfy]

@ All writers here:

Thank you much, for keeping us updated!

There is no other Source of Information available who provide so much compressed information about the topic. That saves many travellers hours of googling.

Surfy

[priffe]

Originally Posted by Surfy

@ All writers here:

Thank you much, for keeping us updated!

There is no other Source of Information available who provide so much compressed information about the topic. That saves many travellers hours of googling.

Surfy

I would agree, and that is one of the reasons this is the most (?) read thread on the HUBB. The writing has been somewhat curtailed, as we were asked to keep it relevant to travel. Still, I would like to discuss what is going on in Ubari, Libya right now as this will have impact on future Saharian travel.
MBM is building a new movement, protected by Malian (not local) tuaregs who have moved to the area.
There are people here who know the region and others with long experience from the Sahara.

There are two hostages missing from the video.
Serge Lazarevic, who was abducted from the hostel in Hombori two years ago (together with Philippe Verdon. Verdon was executed by Aqim in March 2013).
And Gilberto Leal, abducted in Diema a year ago.
Perhaps they are held by another group, or in another location?

.

[Magoo2]

Has this video actually been released to the public? I see some news quote that a News Editor in Morocco was arrested for releasing a video for Al Qaeda
Magoo2

[Chris Scott]

Still, I would like to discuss what is going on in Ubari, Libya right now as this will have impact on future Saharian travel.
MBM is building a new movement, protected by Malian (not local) tuaregs who have moved to the area.

The south of Libya became inaccessible to regular tourism even before MBM and the rest moved in. And reports of speedy northern transits between Tunisia and Egypt seem to have died down this year.
You'd hope it won't take 10 years of ever-bolder attacks/abductions, as was the case in north Mali, for action to be taken in southern Libya (article), but that must depend on what they get up to. You'd suppose they pass the time running day-to-day trafficking, but Ubari is a lot nearer to eastern Algeria's gas installations than Ametetai. If In Amenas last Jan was organised from Mali, you'd imagine doing more of the same from Ubari would be less difficult to pull off. As we know MBM's outfit hit Agadez and Arlit from Libya last May. But until foreigners [BP, etc] come back in, you'd assume hitting Libya's installations would be seen as below the belt and perhaps pointless?

Elsewhere south Algeria seems closed to foreigners according to various agencies (others contradict).
Egypt and the Gilf seem to be a bureaucratic free-for-all.
North Chad seems a bright spot, but to get there overland is a long, expensive trek. Better to fly in.
Morocco and WS - business as usual.
Mauritania - the usually visited places in the south and west of the country still seem to be accessible, albeit with a bit more supervision than before.
Northeast Niger - presumably under the influence of AQIM-types and associated traffickers.
North Mali - well few ever went beyond Timbuktu/Gao since the Tanezrouft piste closed. I don't suppose that will reopen soon, but will be a positive sign if it does.

Short version IMO: largely FUBAR'd for years to come.

Ch

PS: Serge Lazarevic was claimed by AQIM two years ago, but perhaps by another faction from the 7. Gilberto Leal was thought to be with MUJAO - does that include MBM's new group? Who knows.

[priffe]

Thanks for a cheerful outlook
but probably true - Libya, south Algeria. N. Niger and N. Mali won't be accessible for a long time.
Libyan border patrols reporting 'tents of Al Qaeda' are told to close their eyes.
Trafic transfrontalier dans le Sud libyen | Afrique | DW.DE | 17.09.2013
borders wide open.
Niger welcomes armed drones http://www.trust.org/item/20130918153035-3ya1t
The Swedish hostage was on television this morning, filmed in June.

[priffe]

Mali now
bombs went off in Kidal and TB2 the other day. Suicide bombers in TB2.
also
Winning: France Seeks Permanent Victory In Mali

[priffe]

I heard of the large cache of arms they had found near the border, and thought it was on the Libyan side - but no, this was near Illizi!
Hundreds of RPGs, anti-air craft missiles, MANPADs, rocket launchers, land mines, beside the usual rifles and ammo.
UPDATE 2-Algerian troops find huge arms cache on Libya border | Reuters

[Richard Washington]

With news of the release of the long held hostages from Arlit (see
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...-niger-52742-4) one wonders whether there will now be more kidnappings and if so, where and what kind of groups will be targeted.

There is no proof at all that a ransom was paid for the Arlit hostages but most, I think, would be very surprised if there were less than tens of millions that changed hands. I say that because a) the hostages were employed by a company and were not regular tourists with much less access to money b) they were held for three years and, in objective terms, would have been expensive to keep.

Will others be targeted now that the Arlit hostages are free? A 'yes' argument goes like this:
a) the kidnappers now have the money (see speculation above) and the renewed confidence that money will be paid
b) the kidnappers now have more resources with fewer people to hold captive and can afford to take more captives given that the resolution with the Arlit hostages came even after the events in N Mali where the bandits were effectively chased out (in other words, the concept of hostages for ransom is alive and well, not withstanding the turbulent times in the Sahara)
c) It has been nearly a year since a hostage was taken

Who will be targeted, tourists or workers from abroad?
The Arlit event seems to have proved that a patient, long wait will yield the money. So even though 3 years was a record in the Sahara in terms of holding captives, it was most likely their most profitable haul.
Is it easier to take tourists with a faster pay rate by governments though lower overall pay per person? We will see the answer to this from how the currently held hostages from Timbuktu and Diema work out.


A 'no' argument for no more immediate kidnappings could be:
The bandits now have the money they want and will focus on regrouping in the changed Saharan security situation (harder in Mali, easier in Libya).


On balance, I am surprised that hostages in Libya have not been taken. That means yes, kidnappings will continue. I would expect that the prime targets would be expats in Libya.

[priffe]

The ransom paid, unofficially, by the French was in excess of €20 million.
Otages d’Arlit : une rançon a été versée
A lot of money to play with, perhaps and hopefully there will ensue a big fight over the loot.

Kidnappings could happen anywhere in the triangle Benghazi - Bamako - Abuja I think.
It has been pointed out that the kidnappings of westerners in northern Nigeria did not bear the marks of Boko Haram, but rather that of Algerians being involved.
allAfrica.com: Nigeria: Jacob Zenn - On Terrorism and Insurgency in Northern Nigeria

SE Algeria is awfully close to where MBM and his cohorts are regrouping in Libya. I hear that the Djanet plateau will remain closed for tourism, but there are some tourists around anyway. Perhaps as you say it is a better idea kidnapping expatriats working for big oil etc, easier to extract money then.
The Swede who was kidnapped in TB2, I don't know who is negotiating on his behalf; Swedish governement have little experience with similar situations. I suspect they are delegating the job to the French.
Dutch troops are being stationed in N Mali, and Algerian troops are being moved to the Libyan border. Can they keep it under surveillance? Libya is unstable all the way from Ghadames to Ghat, with militias filling the role of governement.
It is estimated that one third of Aqim in Mali were killed during operation Serval, another third have deserted, and most of the remaining third, around 500, have retreated to Libya.
But there are still pockets in Mali, with suicide attacks in Gao, Kidal, Aguelhoc and Tessalit. And the french hostages are said to have been released in E Mali.

[Chris Scott]

BBC News - Sahara kidnappings: A massive money-making business

[Richard Washington]

Land mine explosion between Ansongo and Menaka. Mali is truly a mess at the moment. More here:
Truck hits landmine in Mali - 4 dead | News24

(note, its not necessarily AQIM who planted the mine).

Late edit to this landmine posting:
Until now it was thought that Mali is clear of mines.
Now we know Mali is not free of landmines.
The reason the landmines are in Mali now most likely relates to the insurgency of AQIM and its splinter groups (whether or not AQIM placed the mines).
The landmine posting here is highly relevant to overlanders because
a) landmines remain active for decades
b) information on them is scarce and in some places not up to date.

[Magoo2]

If Areva settled the bounty and Governments are saying no pay, then pity the poor traveller who gets taken and has no big daddy company behind them to pay. The monies asked are way beyond any individuals/family's means. Maybe there should be some insurance cover that Horizons Unlimited can set up that we all contribute to at the start of our trips?

[cruiser guy]

Originally Posted by Magoo2

If Areva settled the bounty and Governments are saying no pay, then pity the poor traveller who gets taken and has no big daddy company behind them to pay. The monies asked are way beyond any individuals/family's means. Maybe there should be some insurance cover that Horizons Unlimited can set up that we all contribute to at the start of our trips?

Any time you capitulate and pay a ransom you up the anti for the next person. If these guys never get a penny ransom then the whole idea of kidnapping will be finished as there is no incentive. I would not contribute to a fund to pay ransom and I would strongly recommend no one else set up such a fund or contribute to such a fund.

Personally, I don't WANT anyone to pay a ransom for me if I were kidnapped.

[Magoo2]

Hey Cruizer I get your drift. Just one question........ Can you tell us what you would do if it was your son.... or your daughter.... or your wife that was abducted and held???

[cruiser guy]

Originally Posted by Magoo2

Hey Cruizer I get your drift. Just one question........ Can you tell us what you would do if it was your son.... or your daughter.... or your wife that was abducted and held???

I really can't say unless I were in that unfortunate place. What I can say is if no ransoms were being paid now we could all worry A LOT less later.

Would stopping ransom payments totally stop all kidnappings? Probably not, but it would certainly stop the kidnappings for cash.