Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security

[donncha]

According to the BBC tonight.

[priffe]

How could anyone on earth possibly justify the murder of this old man?

[Ulrich]

Direct link to the audio-statement from AQIM:

Multiupload.com - upload your files to multiple file hosting sites! - 7 MB

Ulrich

[Chris Scott]

Google Translate

[Rui Pedro Tremoceiro]

Hi all

Now that's the right moment for a large operation in the area.
First: the return of the two spanish citizens, at any cost.
Second:strong military operations to solve the problem for the next years.
After the 11 gendarmes and the french citizen, the is the right moment for a wide operation (except the hot season...)
By the way: what do you think, it's easier to find and defect them in summer or in winter?

Cheers,
Rui

[Ulrich]

The security services responsible for combating terrorism in Sahel have located almost 20 sites in which terrorists use to holding the Western hostages. In light of this information, combined security forces, composed of soldiers of the Mauritanian army, backed by a French army commandos, were questioned and examined the movement a terrorist leader of Al Qaeda in the Sahara for more information, through which they can pinpoint the whereabouts of Germaneau. However, the operation did not go as planned and went into action and launched an offensive against terrorist strongholds in the north of Mali, this weekend, but failed to save the lives Germaneau.

El Khabar - Les renseignements ont fait défaut

Gogoonisch - E

The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) announced Sunday it killed an elderly French aid worker held hostage in the Sahara, a few hours after deadline had expired.

Echorouk - GSPC kills hostage and France under shock



Supposedly in the action were also killed nine French soldiers, an Islamist relevant forum said.

Neufs membres de la ont été DGSE tues par l'AQMI (Al-Qaida au Maghreb islamique) lors du RAID-mene par les Kräfte spéciaux françaises pour M. liberer Germaneau.
Liste de tués au cours de l´opération contre AQMI Liste de tues au cours de l'opération contre AQMI
le Jeudi/07/2010 le Jeudi/07/2010

Cristopher LE BERRE - DGSE/SA Cristopher Le Berre - DGSE / SA
Lambert DELANNOY - DGSE/SA Lambert DELANNOY - DGSE / SA
Timothee AUBERT - DGSE/SA Timothee AUBERT - DGSE / SA
Claude VINCENT - DGSE/SA Claude VINCENT - DGSE / SA
Benjamin ROUSSEL - DGSE/SA Benjamin ROUSSEL - DGSE / SA
Gaston PHILIPPON - DGSE/SA Gaston Philippon - DGSE / SA
Jean-Marcel ROCH - DGSE/SA Jean-Marcel Roch - DGSE / SA
Youssef EL-ABBASI - DGSE/SA Youssef El-Abbasi - DGSE / SA
Isidore DOUSSET - DGSE/SA Isidore Dousset - DGSE / SA

Ulrich

[priffe]

Also according to El Khabar

The plan as implemented and executed by the French, then, together with the special forces of the Mauritanian army was to make contact with the group's terrorist squad of the Sahara, belonging to the movement of Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb , expecting the arrival of a Malian negotiator, represented in the person of a former Mauritanian army officer accompanied by a significant tribe of Arenane.
The purpose of this meeting was to have proof that the French national was still alive and the payment of a ransom, the amount of which was not disclosed. It was, also, to keep alive the seven terrorist kidnappers, subjecting them to interrogation, check the exact location of the detention before Germaneau then move on to the action and release.

[Richard Washington]

Such difficult times and such a sad end for Mr Germaneau. I can't imagine what must be hapenning with the Spanish.

With 9 special force losses on the French side + Mr Germaneau + Mauritanian loses which don't seem to have been declared, it looks like AQIM came off best here. Looks like AQIM were expecting the attack. If the party came into Tessalit by plane, then the whole of NE Mali would have known something was about to happen. Choppers would have been more discreet.

Edit...its been pointed out to me that the French special forces loses are not confirmed but instead derive from one source. Looks like the Mauri + French forces went in by vehicle, then on foot for the last 10 km or so. Other reports say 2 AQIM escaped. Must have hit the wrong base.

[priffe]

Kouchner on tour
Mali wants co-ordinated effort against terrorism: Kouchner < French news | Expatica France
ANALYSIS-Raid shows resolve, trouble in fight vs Sahara's Qaeda | News by Country | Reuters

Mali, on whose territory the raid took place, is widely perceived to be the weak link in the fight against al Qaeda due to reported connections between some authorities and the Islamists.
...
While happier a more robust approach is being taken after Mali earlier released Islamists in exchange for a previous French hostage, Algerians are likely to be bristling over an intervention by its former colonial power on its patch.

Algeria hosts a regional military headquarters for fighting AQIM. Richard Barrett, head of the U.N.'s al Qaeda monitoring team, said regional cooperation would take time, and a few successes to bolster confidence between the actors.
But Wolfram Lacher, head of the Middle East and North Africa desk at Control Risks, said the exclusion of Mali and Algeria pointed to problems in the process. "In sum, the operation does not suggest that the obstacles to regional cooperation to counter AQIM are being overcome - quite to the contrary.

Nothing is keeping the Algerians from getting more involved, right? So why bristle.

Now is not the time for any westerner to be near the Mauri-Mali-Niger desert.

More analysis from France -
Mauri moving against Abu Zeid
"Le raid contre Al Qaeda au Maghreb islamique est une premi�re" - L'EXPRESS

Germenau executed for publicity and to please Bin Laden
Le Figaro - International : �AQMI a besoin de publicit�

That the Spaniards are being held by MBM and not Abu Zeid gives some hope
Al Qaeda au Sahel d�tient aussi deux otages espagnols - L'EXPRESS

[Chris Scott]

... So why bristle...

If it's not strategic posturing then I suspect because they resent the French and want to control and dominate the situation (and can probably afford to do so because if not, Libya might) - or, as widely suggested is the case in Mali, some Alg elements may be involved in the game.

Reading and discussing with others, one conclusion is that sadly, M. Germaneau died a few weeks ago, as some sources quietly suggest. (About the time of the 15-day deadline, in fact). The French sensed this (suddenly stalled negs, 'no proof of life') and so had nothing to lose by taking direct action (with Mori) and letting the GSPC claim their 'retaliation' after a 'botched rescue bid'.
It may even indeed have been a pre-emptive land-based raid just over the Mori border in the Timbuktu region - as claimed - and not east of Tessalit as many of us assumed. Did Kidal forum report Tessalit hearing big jeep- and chopper-laden planes? Don't know, but there was also talk of a second 'distracting' op.

Once it's all old news the precedent is set for future French-led ops, although the Spanish are rightly not pleased about it.

Neither is Alg with its Tam CC, but the coalition of African nations has so far not been effective, as Wolfram Lacher suggests. We heard the same 'Alg aid to Mali' (the famous 'sleeping bags', etc) some 14 months ago in preparation for decisive action. Things merely got much worse.

AFAICT all that's happened with Tam CC is that we're told 11 or so gendarmes in a new border patrol unit got wiped out two weeks ago near Tin Z. Must say I'm not so sure about that one.

I also suspect the list of 9 DRSE casualties is merely jihadist propaganda (check out the sources by Googling the names). Otherwise GSPC would be crowing about it from the dune tops with mutilated pics of DRSE, not shots of dead muj brothers.

If only for the people who live in the area, one can hope this might be the much anticipated beginning of the end of the GSPC in Mali at least, but it could all be too far gone.

Ch

All my speculation of course. Links and sources on my website

[priffe]

Originally Posted by Chris Scott

Reading and discussing with others, one conclusion is that sadly, M. Germaneau died a few weeks ago, as some sources quietly suggest.

Seems very likely. An ailing 78 yr old would not be a good kidnapping target for those looking for a hefty ransom (MBM) but he could be used for propaganda (Abu Zeid).

Once it's all old news the precedent is set for future French-led ops, although the Spanish are rightly not pleased about it.

The French are always acting out of self-interest, making even Bush look like the blue eyed idealist he was (my personal view of course).

AFAICT all that's happened with Tam CC is that we're told 11 or so gendarmes in a new border patrol unit got wiped out two weeks ago near Tin Z. Must say I'm not so sure about that one.

Do we ever get the real story?

I also suspect the list of 9 DRSE casualties is merely jihadist propaganda (check out the sources by Googling the names). Otherwise GSPC would be crowing about it from the dune tops with mutilated pics of DRSE, not shots of dead muj brothers.

Precisely.

If only for the people who live in the area, one can hope this might be the much anticipated beginning of the end of the GSPC in Mali at least.

That would be just splendid!!

All my speculation of course. Links and sources on my website

How do I find links on your site?

[priffe]

A little more on the Tam command. Is this division of missions practical or merely a desktop construction?

El Watan :: 25 juillet 2010 :: Comité d’état-major de Tamanrasset�*: Une mission plus formelle qu’active

... Missions were assigned to each country. Thus, Algeria is in charge of air forces, the ground forces Mali, Mauritania transmissions, Niger logistics, while Burkina Faso has an observer role. Each country was represented by a senior military level. However, on the ground, the committee remained completely absent, if not ignored.
...
Is this situation that led Mauritania to appeal to France to track down a group of terrorists in Malian territory? Nobody knows. What is certain is that this operation shows that states in the region still can not agree on the problems that undermine their relations and jeopardize the future of their people. It is clear that today is a challenge to get back on track this committee and ensure it plays its full role. The security of the region should go exclusively to the states that compose it and not to those who covet her wealth.

[Richard Washington]

"According to Mauritanian television, the Mauritanian security authorities have identified the body of the terrorist Bilal among the terrorists eliminated following the military operation conducted by the Franco-Mauritanian forces in which seven French soldiers were also killed.
Bilal El-Djazaïri was one of the pillars of the organization in the Sahel, the right arm of Hamadou Abada, alias « Abdelhamid Abou Zeid » and an expert on desert trails and surrounding areas."

Ennahar Online - Bilal El-Djazaïri, Abu Zeid’s right arm, eliminated in Mali

[Ulrich]

It is surprising that the French media continue to believe that the July 22 raid took place in the circle of Tessalit. The famous site wikileaks creates a nightmare at the Pentagon investigated and here the truth that resembles truth itself.

One begins to understand how things happened on Thursday morning, during the operation against Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), thanks to a source familiar with the matter. It was originally an army operation in Mauritania, which has been grafted a French intervention. In early July, Mauritania has been warned by Western sources and by their own networks within the region that a group of AQIM preparing an operation against a post on Mauritanian territory, by the end of July. President Abdel Aziz then warned Paris that he would mount a massive operation against AQIM, using the "right of pursuit" as mutually agreed Mauritania, Mali and Niger to combat terrorism.

Saharamedia - Raid du 22 juillet : Ce qui s’est réellement passé

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

[Fastship]