General speculation on Saharan kidnapping tactics

[priffe]

Isn't it ironic that this "real map" is near unintelligible?

And not much to do with kidnapping tactics.

[Ulrich]

Interview with Jeremy Keenan (translated from German)

Jeremy Keenan on Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and why they are probably a useful horror ghost, created by intelligence agencies, is

Barcelona has been cheered when, on a week ago, the Spanish NGO staff for 268 days in captivity in the Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) 23rd August freikamen. In France, however, there was grief and sadness after a rescue operation of French special forces failed in Mali and the execution of Michel Germaneau was announced. In Paris and Madrid is now AQIM promised to fight a merger of the Algerian GSPC (Groupe Salafist pour la Predication et le Combat) and Al-Qaeda, harder than before. In both countries, governments must necessarily cooperate with Algeria, which has monopolized the anti-terror fight in the Sahel region for years, as the countries of Mali, Niger and Mauritania complain.

TP: Im Gewirr von Geheimdiensten und Terrorgruppen

Google translation to English

Ulrich

[Ulrich]

September 7, 2010 ------ Al Qaeda is using cash, and coercion, to increase its power in the area south of Algeria. This can be seen in how al Qaeda arranged the release of one of their members (Omar Ahmed Ould Sidi Ould Hama) from a Mauritanian prison last month.

This was apparently part of a secret deal to get two Spanish aid workers released by al Qaeda. Hama was aided by the intercession of UN recognized rebel group Polisario, and officials in Mali (where Hama was expelled to) who looked the other way as Hama promptly disappeared.

Malian officials and Polisario have both been seduced by al Qaeda cash.

Shimron Letters: AQIM and Polisario, How Smuggling works in the Sahel

Ulrich

[Ulrich]

The kidnapping of seven people in Niger, Areva and Vinci (five including a French woman, a Togolese and a Malagasy), regardless of future developments (and of course they can be dramatic), is a challenge the French government and the entire country from the borders of the Sahara, who play their game in a game of pool in several bands. L'Elysée, which multiplies the preparations for military intervention type, semi-clandestine, highly technical, heavy and finally - with the geopolitical consequences that may accompany it - commits France in what could be another quagmire on bottom of uranium , terrorism, destabilization of Sahelian countries, and interventionism of former colonial power. This would amount to very little new course that President Sarkozy claims to give to Franco-African ...

blog mondediplo - Au Sahel, un nouveau front �* haut risque

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

[Chris Scott]

Interesting article (have not read it all yet) but features another vague and inaccurate graphic (actually, some diplomatic atlas from 2006) that would be misleading to someone who did not know the background.

Ch

[Ulrich]

The recent abduction of hostages in Niger, Areva has often appeared as the revelation of collusion between the new African branch of Al Qaeda franchise and the Tuareg. When French commits a crime, France is she a criminal state? But easy with a shortcut, using the reasoning "who benefits?", The Tuareg are charged because they are the first victims of Areva in Niger.

Le Monde - La dérive maffieuse d'AQMI

Gogoonisch - E

New born regards :-)

Ulrich

[Yves]

Hi,

an article in French resuming quite well the complexity of the situation in souther Sahara:

Aqmi, un business à désert ouvert - Libération
Aqmi, un business

[Dave The Hat]

Very interesting read, thanks Yves.

The opening paragraph has an interesting line:

"Each European abducted by accomplices of Al-Qaeda would be "resold" terrorists for rates ranging from 15 000 to 300 000 euros. American and British nationals are not subject, because their Governments refuse to pay ransom"...

Is there any basis to believe that is true (US and UK citizens not subject). Or are they just more likely to be killed outright?!

[priffe]

The latest events show a change in French policy towards AQ and their affiliates. The new hardline approach is probably good for ending the kidnapping of westerners as a way of financing terrorism but it may be very negative for those who are unfortunate enough to become hostages.
It appears Sarkozy will rather sacrifice his own than negotiating. What will this lead to? Will Aqim start looking for other nationalities, or will they continue to take big risks to attack France for propaganda purposes? There are many thousands of French in Niger-Mali-Mauretania.
Sahel : la France opte pour le durcissement face � AQMI - LeMonde.fr

"France has chosen a new approach that had already been implemented with Michel Germaneau . It sends a strong message, " says Mathieu Guidere. In August 2010, Nicolas Sarkozy had indeed discussed a "major shift" in the strategy of France after the Franco-Mauritanian raid conducted in July to try to find the hostage kidnapped April 19, 2010 in Niger. It is a "very clear signal of a change strategy that will take place throughout the area" . He considers that "France no longer wants the image of a government that negotiates with terrorism" .

[Ulrich]

PARIS - The Algerian Islamist Mokhtar Belmokhtar, who according to the Malian and Nigerian mediators has sponsored the abduction of two French nationals found dead in Mali, reigns over the smuggling routes of the deep south Sahara, as terrorist, smuggler and thief.

Ennahar - Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the godfather of the Sahara

Regards

Ulrich

[Richard Washington]

From the last few lines of the article which Ulrich's most recent posting refers us to (and talking about the Elusive One):
" There, he enjoyed for years the right to asylum, following his intervention in the happy ending of the abduction of German and Austrian tourists.

He has been promised to be left alone if he does not engage in hostile action on our soil," told Le Figaro in March 2007, Col. El Hadj Gamou, head of the 1st Military Region of Mali. "

This is probably the first explanation I have seen about why Mali does little to expel AQIM from Mali.

[Richard Washington]

The first Algerian kidnapping since 2003 happened in Alidema, near the Tadrart, ESE of Djanet in the early evening (6pm) of 2 February 2011.

The Algerian domino has fallen. What can be learnt from the incident?

1. The kidnapping occurred in an area close to the Algerian/Niger/Libya border, but particularly close to the Niger border. Reports are that the bandits took off for Niger during the hours of darkness but first destroyed the lights of the guide's car - presumably to buy time. The UK FCO travel warning for Algeria has long posted the following warning: "We also advise that you exercise extreme caution in the areas bordering Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Libya and Tunisia." While much of the Algerian Sahara open to tourism is reasonably secure, the border areas cannot be secure. The FCO warning has proven to be accurate. Many tourists who know Algeria have known to stay clear of the border areas, particularly the far, far south near Niger and Mali. The kidnapping location was well chosen - a short drive to Niger. The timing of the kidnapping at or just after sunset suggests that the tactic was to clear off to Niger as soon as possible. On 2nd February there was no moon. The night would have been dark - part of the plan no doubt.

2. The incident seems to have happened near a known camping spot in the Alidema region - a region famous for many rock arches. It seems that the bandits expected more than one tourist.

3. For the first time the bandits have kidnapped a woman on her own. Previously women have been taken as part of a group which included men (e.g. Austrian from Tunisia, Spanish from Mauri, Italians from Mauri). In some cases, the women have been released earlier than the men (e.g. Spanish) or have been offered release earlier than men (e.g. Italians from Mauri). The tactic of taking a lone woman is a first. I think it was unplanned on the part of AQIM.

4. The bandits have reportedly told the tourist agency in Djanet that tourism is un-Islamic. While AQIM have succeeded in closing down tourism over vast stretches of the Sahara, this is the first incident I know of where there has been a direct instruction to cease tourism. One would imagine that the instruction would be unpopular in places like Agadez, Djanet and Tam where there is little else to the current economy. Now that there has been a direct instruction to close tourism (compared with tourism being damaged as a result of AQIM activities), can we expect attitudes to AQIM in the local community to change? I would have thought so. But will that make any material difference to the fortunes of AQIM? I don't think so.

5. There has been long standing discussion on the Sahara Travel Forum about why no kidpanning has happened in Algeria since 2003. There has been discussion, for example, about the role of the guide in somehow preventing the kidnappings although no one could be clear about exactly how this worked - in other words exactly what it was that deterred AQIM from taking tourists in the presence of guides. That all seems to have changed now. There does not appear to be anything on AQIM's side from stopping AQIM from taking tourists in Algeria in the presence of guides. Clearly AQIM have preferred not to operate in Algeria, but there seems to have been no ideological reason why they did not. Perhaps scarcity of tourists elsewhere have driven them there - in the same way that they had to go to Niamey to find the two French guys.

6. In this case, on the morning before the kidnapping, the tourist returned to Djanet, where the car(s) refueled and then drove out to Alidema. One suggestion is that the tourist was followed or that news on the destination was passed on. In my view it is not possible, when travelling with guides, to keep travel plans and destinations secret. The only way to ensure this is if one were in one's own vehicle and without a guide/cook/driver. But travel without a guide is not permitted in Libya/Algeria/Niger etc.

7. The towns in Algeria (e.g. Djanet and Tam) and some routes away from the borders in Algeria remain secure in my view. AQIM know that the security is too tight this far in to Algeria. But the open desert 70km or so from the border cannot be secure.

8. What does this mean for Libya? My feeling is that AQIM will consider SW Libya fair game. And what about Maroc?

[grizzly7]

Several reports seem to suggest it wasn't AQIM as taking a lone woman is un-Islamic, and so therefore the kidnappers were smugglers?

"This would be the first time that al Qaeda has kidnapped a woman alone," said Samer Riad. "This is against (Islamic) sharia rules. We wait to see if al Qaeda ... claims this action."

Gunmen kidnap Italian woman tourist in Algeria - World news - Africa - msnbc.com

Ennahar Online - An Italian tourist kidnapped by Smugglers in Southern Algeria

Gunmen kidnap Italian woman tourist in Algeria | Reuters

Personally I think you are at the mercy of whichever local bandit has you in their sights. Take first and see what they can get when they are safely away (which may then be their first contact with AQIM?), so UK, USA, lone man/woman whatever.



Jason

[priffe]

I think Richard is right, 14 men in two Toyotas is not smugglers, it is Aqim. Further reports from the incident says they spoke Mauritanian (hassani) and they even claimed to be Aqim.
«Les assaillants seraient d’Al Qaîda» - Actualité - El Watan
” One of them had their faces uncovered. He spoke Arabic Mauritania. ” They ask “where is the group of tourists” and he replies: “There are no tourists here.” The attackers searched the premises and discovered the Italian. They demand the identity papers of three Algerians (the guardian of the site, the guide and a shepherd).
“They took away the papers and phones before asking me what agency I worked for. When I told him I was Ténéré of Kherrani, they said: ‘Tell him he must stop this activity. It is contrary to the principles of Islam. ” I wanted to know who he was and his reply was, ‘We Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’. ”

What it means? I hope it leads to greater cooperation in the region. Alg can have all the army they like, there's still no safety if there are bands of terrorists just across the border waiting to strike. Like when a number of Alg military were butchered north of Tin Zahouatine last year. This caused great resentment in Tam, but hasn't lead to any changes. Meanwhile, both Niger and Mauri troops have worked out the right of pursuit across the borders with Mali. As for Morocco, it could happen there too. Libya - - the leaders in the region are loosing strength and many things can change in the near future. But I think Algeria's attitude is the greater problem.
Now they have announced that the nine-teen year old state of emergency will be lifted - will this have any immediate impact on the situation in the south?

[t.crickett]

Originally Posted by priffe

«Les assaillants seraient d’Al Qaîda» - Actualité - El Watan
” ...They took away the papers and phones before asking me what agency I worked for. When I told him I was Ténéré of Kherrani, they said: ‘Tell him he must stop this activity. It is contrary to the principles of Islam. ” I wanted to know who he was and his reply was, ‘We Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’. ”

I read this at first as anti-tourism, as Richard also mentions. But in thinking about it, I wonder if the issue is the escorting of single (unattached) women.