Clever Politicians
 

The hostage problem in Algeria was the first of its kind in Algeria and the desert itself was shown to be safe for some years. But now
following the release of the 14 Europeans in Mali, some politicians are getting very clever about warnings of adventure travel:

"Those who recklessly put themselves in danger just for the thrill of it must also reckon with the fact that they'll be asked to contribute something towards the rescue"
Wolfgang Bosbach, CDU.

OK, Wolfgang, good point. But can you politicians tell us where the next hit is going to be? New York, Morocco, the UN? When you can tell me that, then I'll take some notice. Its no good being clever after the fact.

"Those who recklessly put themselves in danger just for the thrill "

A kind of caper that, it appears, was particularly popular with retired pensioners in motorhomes.

It would be good to remember what the German version of the FCO travel advice was saying about Algeria just before it all started. Much like the UK I 'd guess: Tassili-H is OK (as of course it was)

Like every German Saharan knows, the guy is talkng bollocks. Spread the word.

Ch

And as an example of closing the door when the horse is bolted:
The British FCO advises against all travel to:

Algeria (to the desert and mountainous areas of the South East)

But say nothing in this category of travel warning about the Algerian-Malian border in the SW, the Tanezrouft, the north of the country......

basically these services (can) only ever operate in past tense.

The problem with the FCO is that it has to cater for the lowest common denominator ie the independent traveller (in all their forms). Secondly its advice can and is also used as a means of political leverage on a country hence the dire warnings during the India v Pakistan confrontation last year when they advised everyone to get out of India.

Making sound predictions is possible though if you collect the available information (FCO, Google News etc) analyse the situation and establish what the dynamics of a situation are. You can then identify possible events "triggers" which will effect those dynamics positively or negatively.

For instance in Algeria / Mali the successful crack down on the Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat including the capture of Hassan Hattab and Mokhtar Belmokhtar would be a positive trigger. The payment of the ransom is a bad start and sets a dangerous precedent as already discussed on this forum. If true prepare for more hostage taking (a negative trigger).

There was definitely no "travel warning" for central Algeria in Germany, neither in January nor in March/April. The warnig covered the densely populated north (usual terrorism) and the extreme south (bandits operating from Niger & Mali).
A so called "travel hint" was issued after the first groups were reported missing - the second wave was caputred or near capture and on the track at that time. There is still no travel warning covering Algeria as a whole so far.
It may be interesting that Switzerland and Austria issued stronger warnings. At the moment, France (any tourism is "formalement deconseille" )and Austria (any tourism, especially north and Sahara) keep up the strongest warnings.

Regards,
Peter