With Lybia droned into oblivion, and AFRICOM finally gaining a foothold on African soil, you don't need to be Jeremy Keenan to envision a very bleak future for Desert Divers & Lovers ...

So much for the hiatus. It must have been reason number 6.
AFP: Two Spaniards, Italian kidnapped from Algeria camp

Seems to be being attributed to MBM (as it's on the west side?).

Meantime found this update on the 4 French (in the hands of ABZ), one year on:
French AQIM hostages still alive (Magharebia.com)

Ch

My guess is that AQIM were after Spanish and Italians - most likely because payments have previously flowed for these nationals. Aid agencies are also more likely to pay than some governments. The recent kidnappings of aid workers in N.Kenya shows this move to be a wider trend. It is also consistent with wanting to remove western influence from North Africa - all the way from the Indian to Atlantic Ocean.

The last few AQIM raids have been on targets that are fixed in space. I think this is because the raids, and the get-away, can be more easily planned. The Italian women in SE Algeria was taken from a popular camp spot. AQIM were expecting many more tourists that night. The Areva mine and Tindouf can be scoped out well in advance - with insiders sharing the details on routines and the extent of security. Taken together, this suggests that tourists in their own vehicles following an unusual route the finer details of which are kept confidential, will be less likely to be targeted. Either way, its turning into a long wait if you do get caught and for British and French nationals, it will be particularly difficult.

Also yet again they went quite far to find hostages outside of Mali.
Is the Italian woman with Abou Zeid? If so, MBM may have felt short of hostages.
Whether the two katibats of AZ and MBM are cooperating and even sharing renevue seems doubtful, they rather appear to be in competition with each other.

The camp workers were protected by sahrawi guards, and one was wounded, along with one or more of the hostages.

The kidnapping a couple of years ago of three Spanish aid workers were on moving targets, even if it appears to have been planned.
Frenchman Germenau kidnapped in Niger could have been a chance encounter in the desert, the kind that could happen to any of us on the piste.

Now I think about it, I agree the Spanish and Italian were probably targeted as their countries/organisations pay readily. There must be several nationalities of aid workers to choose from in the camps around Tindouf. And as also mentioned, aid workers and the like are sitting targets, though I'm not sure if it's anything as ideological as 'removing western influence'.

Wasn't it claimed that Gadaffi was a broker on many of these deals - paying the ransom in return for concessions from the EU country concerned so the EU country could claim clean hands - or maybe that was years ago. Still, without him around, it may slow such deals down.

Just back from an FCO meeting about Sahel security. Mali and Mori were mainly discussed, in particular why does the exclusion zone on the FCO map extend so low below the Niger river in Mali. One theory I heard is that the French and Mali govts are at odds over something and so the French have turned the screws by escalating the security threat right down to Dogon lands to ruin tourism

On 19 April the Embassy of France in Bamako (Mali) alerted its nationals of a “very high risk” of being kidnapped in Mali and Niger particularly between the city of Mopti and the border with Burkina Faso.

and the Brits, knowing no better, follow suit. And yet Nioro, close to where this attack took place a few days ago, escapes the FCO red zone - or is on the very edge of it. That, and pulling off a raid as far south as Dogonlands (a non-Islamic region, to boot) and escaping back over the river into the desert would be quite a feat. (Apparently the attack a few days ago was more successful that it reads.)

It's the age old thing of politics affecting FCO travel advice, though you get the feeling they are well meaning people who can't win either way.

See also this and this

Though I'm not exactly sure where Wagadou Forest is, to be fair you do wonder how a new AQIM base can spring up so far south in Mali. Plus the fact it’s never been clear that parts of the Malian govt or army were not connected with AQIM’s money making activities.

I was also told that broke pro-Gadaffi Malian fighters (Tuaregs?) coming back from Libya are having their weapons bought off them and generally being rehabilitated by the Malian govt, rather than being condemned or ignored. Suggests the Mali govt is not so slack and recognises that bored and broke young men with guns is not a good idea up north.

Ch

This wont let the FCO feel any better, either.

Polisario claim they are pursuing the kidnappers and are some 50 miles behind them.
Le Front Polisario aux trousses des ravisseurs - Actualité - El Watan Some harsh words between Mali and Polisario.
Aren't any of the Algeria 75,000 desert troops stationed in the west?

No kidnappings south of the Niger river so far.

edit: the plot may thicken some when we recall that several Polisario members were reported to have been arrested in eastern Mali a few months back with a ton of drugs.
The value of these hostages would then compensate for the loss of the drug.
Hmmm...I get a headache trying to figure this out. But there is something going on between Polisario and the touaregs, and Polisario and the Malian government. And the general speculation is that this could be part of it.

Chris, I haven't found Wagadou on the map but it is supposed to be 50 kms south of Bassiknou.

Wagadou is some 50 km SSW of Nara, just south of Kaloumba and just north of Mourdiah.

The complex in Rabouni where the three hostages were taken is a place where humanitarians check in after arriving in Tindouf and before leaving for their assignment in the camps, usually nobody stays there for long ...

Thanks for that, spent ages looking last time it was mentioned and never really pinned it down.
Puts the Wagadou forest here then.

You do wonder how or why they have established a base there and expected to get away with it for long. Doesn't look like being immune from Mori army attacks has helped them much.

Ch

That is ridiculously close to Bamako! Makes you think how much Mali has ignored the AQIM issue - particularly when its the Mauri army that is cleaning up there.

The Wagadou forest reserve is 120 kms across, I am told. Part of it is dense and would provide good shelter for arms caches and whatnot. Now that they were pounded from above and the area was searched by Malian troops perhaps they will give it up and relocate? It is close to Mauretania but also only 400 kms or so from Bamako.
Algerian military looking for the hostages destryoed two 4x4, four dead, near the Malian border. El Khabar

Fowler speaks out about his time as a hostage in the Malian desert in a new book "A season in hell".
Excerpt from Robert Fowler's book 'A Season in Hell' - The Globe and Mail
He firmly believes he was set up by Niger then president Tandja.
Niger officials likely set him up for kidnapping, Fowler believes - The Globe and Mail
Pic from day 52 out of 130.
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.c...336601cl-8.jpg
The negotiator, Baba Ould Sheik, infamous mayor of Tarkint north of Gao
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.c...336759cl-8.jpg

Sketchy map of the route they were taken
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.c...c_1336879a.JPG

I reckon Fowler's book will be well worth reading. Of all those who have been kidnapped, he has been the most analytical about the strategy/modis operandi and so on surrounding the kidnappings. I have been greatly impressed by his interviews I have heard.

When this thread on general speculation of kidnapping tactics was first set up, I felt that there was genuine scope for understanding the methods used and, on the basis of that, minimising the chances of being caught. To a great extent that is still true.

But what has changed in the meantime is the general political setting in the Sahara. In short, while the odds of getting caught may be similar now, the chances of a successful outcome are much reduced. This is no time to get caught. The politics are now far too complex. Libya, Gaddafi as the former middle man, Nato, Mali double-dealing, Taureg issues, drug-trafficking, Franco-AQIM relations - all these things mean that it is a real mess out there. It would be a long and most agonising wait - as those who are currently being held are no doubt experiencing first hand.

Some juicy parts in today's episode:
"In April, 2009, after four months in limbo, the captives learned they were going to be imminently freed or imminently killed. And it was AQIM group leader Mohktar Belmokhtar – nicknamed “Jack” by the Canadians – who would decide their fate.

It was then that Mr. Fowler met two negotiators – Burkina Faso’s Mustapha Chaffi and Mali’s Baba Ould Cheik – who were working for their presidents."
...
"After everyone had eaten lunch, Jack summoned his full council – nine of them, including Omar Two – to sit beneath a distant tree across the flat open space behind our designated prison, perhaps 300 metres distant. There they sat talking for five interminable hours. Without a doubt, this time it was indeed the jury that was deciding our fate. Jack obviously felt he needed to get formal buy-in from his senior lieutenants and that was not coming easily.

While the jury was deliberating, Louis and I discussed the extent to which any of them were really in our corner. There were clearly two schools within the group: One believed that whatever deal was on offer should be rejected, with cataclysmic consequences for us; the other held that it was better than nothing and we should be released. ... Eventually, in the gathering dusk, the members of the council trooped back, right past us, without saying a word or acknowledging our presence in any way. They had their habitually quick dinner and all was quiet. We were on tenterhooks. What had been decided?

A couple of long hours later, Omar One emerged from the dark and hunkered down before us. He did not appear happy, but we couldn’t tell if he was angry at us or with some of his colleagues.

He was sure as hell angry at Canada. He began by reiterating how perfidious Canada had been throughout the negotiations, stressing the lies he said they had been told and the unfulfilled promises made. He repeatedly insisted, stabbing his finger at me, “They do not want you back. They do not care the least about you. They hope you will stay with us, or, more likely, that we will kill you.”

But – and then I suddenly paid close attention – “we will not do that. We have decided to free you, and by God, Canada will feel our wrath.”"
...
"Belmokhtar’s troops, fully armed, pressed around all three vehicles facing outward. As soon as the women were loaded, Belmokhtar, standing beside the driver’s window, ordered Baba with a sweep of his hand, “Leave – immediately!”

Suddenly Omar One knocked on the passenger window. When Chaffi opened it, Omar, wagging his finger at me, reminded me that on the Day of Judgment I needed to be very clear in my meeting with my maker that he, Omar, had tried valiantly – if unsuccessfully – to guide me to the straight and true path.

Then to my utter surprise, Omar Two, who had refused even to acknowledge our departure moments before, thrust his hand through the window and grabbed mine, saying, “I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you will find the true path, so I offer you my hand believing that you will become a brother.”

* * * * *

Chaffi turned to me and, giving me an uncertain look, asked, “Would you like to know how they would have done it?”

“Done what?” I replied.

“How they would have killed your friend,” gesturing with his thumb back toward where Louis sat on his tires in the back of the truck, “and then, perhaps, you?” ...

To sharpen his focus during those long hours of negotiation, they told him that they had decided they would kill Louis first, in order to get the attention of Canada and the United Nations, before they decided whether I should get the same treatment. They explained that they would have stuffed our mouths with cotton wool and then put tape over our lips to prevent unpleasant sounds being heard on the video and to ensure that there would be no unseemly eruptions of blood from the mouth when the sword was drawn – some practitioners insist that it be done slowly – across our throats."

Wow. The day Fowler and Guay’s fate was decided - The Globe and Mail

Fowler says media attention harmful
Former Canadian diplomat says media coverage 'harmful' during kidnapping