Of course. Young men from Moscow/SPb will have better things to do with their life than get killed in Ukraine - even if they support the war. Most of the troops come from depressed areas where people have no economic prospects. They can spend their life working on a farm or a sawmill for 300-500 USD per month, or they can sign an army contract and get ten times that, for the time they survive. And if they die, well, their family gets a compensation payout and can buy a brand-new Lada.

The Russian authorities remember the wars they lost very well (Afghanistan, the First Chechen War), and know that they can only maintain a high level of public support as long as most of the civilian public can tell themselves that only their neighbors will be impacted, not they themselves. They are too smart to get caught up in it, they won't sign a contract, or will pay a bribe to avoid conscription... The rulers are only in danger when they have to introduce general mobilization and everyone's got a chance of being thrown into a meatgrinder for no good reason.

Yup, exactly. The purpose of army garrisons in Russia has always been at least partially to put down local unrest when needed, so the soldiers need to have no personal ties to the "townies" that they might be ordered to beat or shoot.

A few years ago there was a near-uprising in the Far East, around Vladivostok, where the central authorities had to fly in riot police from Western Russia - the local cops refused to go and beat up and tear-gas the protesters like they are expected to.

The rulers are only in danger when they have to introduce general mobilization and everyone's got a chance of being thrown into a meatgrinder for no good reason.[/QUOTE]

Exactly.
Or when/if the country gets broke if the war drags on like in Afghanistan ( probably the main reason that caused the implosion of the USSR ).
Russia's coffers seem pretty full right now, but who knows.

I have to say that in the months since I posted this, I have changed my views considerably, partly because of interactions with Russian friends, or at this point ex-friends, and partly because it has become blatantly obvious that most Russians simply don't WANT to know what is happening in Ukraine.

You can't really even blame propaganda at this point, because there have been so many reported incidents where parents refuse to believe their own adult children when they say they are being bombed by Russia in Ukraine. not to mention all of the Russians outside of Russia who support the war. Roughly speaking, I've concluded that there is something deep in the Russian psyche which craves a "great Russia," and many Russians are willing to undertake rather impressive mental gymnastics to get them there.

Very sad time for me, a lifelong Russophile. No more.

Yes.
Sad state of things.
It's like finding out your best friend is a bully.
That's what a lack of ' democratic behavior ' ( for lack of better term ) does to a people.
We haven't reached rock bottom yet, unfortunately...

Very sad. Without wanting to deliberately invoke Godwin's Law :innocent:, there are distinct parallels between Russia today to a different European country in the first half of the 20th Century (run by a populist with a Charlie Chaplin 'tash; sorry his name eludes me at the mo' :D ) who was able to persuade many of his (easily persuadable?) population to believe there should be a greater version of his country.

From the then National Anthem, as used between 1922 and 1945
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt

The Maas is in the Netherlands, Memel in Lithuania, Belt in Denmark and Etsch in Italy.

In today's world there are plenty of other countries who have been/ are being run by delusional populists. No need to name check them. We know who they are...

Are (some/many/all) humans so easy to be hoodwinked?

Mixed emotions on reading this. It can't be easy finding out a favourite country isn't what you thought it was, but thanks for coming back and reporting.

It's taken me 70 plus years to realise that men are the root cause of so much angst, from bullying, fighting, thieving, murder and genocide. However the saving grace might yet be the number of senior politicians in the countries immediately surrounding Russia that are women, most of whom are incredibly impressive...

Maia Sandu, President Moldova;
Natalia Gavriliţă, Prime Minister, Moldova;
Zuzana Čaputová, President, Slovakia;

Sanna Marin, Prime Minister, Finland; 

Magdalena Andersson, Prime Minister, Sweden;

Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister, Lithuania; 

Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister, Estonia;
Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister, Denmark;
Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Prime Minister, Ukraine;
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, exiled leader Belarus opposition

I've long held that having women in senior positions leads to fewer wars. Not sure where Liz Truss might fit in this, but anyone who gets up Lavrov's nose can't be all bad.

Not sure I can agree it is "interesting" in any meaningful way. How is that different from us? How many Londoners fought in Iraq and Afghanistan? They come from Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Yorkshire, Cornwall, Lancs ... the poorer regions. And the US military? Massively overweight in ethnic minorities from lower socio economic groups. So how are the Russians different in any interesting way? Its naturally socially and economically more attractive for people in less developed regions / groups to join the military - in any country

I would similarly be pretty sure that very few of the regular enlisted men in the Peoples Liberation Army come from Shanghai or Beijing as well. Thats just natural forces at play. There are far more attractive economic opportunities available to kids growing up in big cities, that applies equally to whether or not they are British, Russian, Chinese, American or French.

It's been exactly like that since long before Iraq or Afghanistan too. The WW1 and WW2 war memorials in the north of England, Scotland, Wales and N Ireland tell their own story. One example of many that was close to my former home: https://www.yorkshire-guide.co.uk/ni...-memorial.aspx

A personal anecdote: My father gave up a marine diesel engineer apprenticeship in a ship yard on the River Clyde in Glasgow in the 1950s because the writing was on the wall: He signed up for 22 years in the British Army instead.

If it wasn't for the Nips
Being so good at building ships
The yards would still be open on the Clyde
(From The Post War Dream by Pink Floyd)

Been there, done that, loved it!
I can also agree with Colbatch’s sentiment on where the majority of the force come from
I personally don’t hold the Russian Populace accountable, just the regime running it. I tend to try and not take things at face value.

I am currently in moscow on my bike.

German passport + bike german reg.plate. 30 days Tourist, single entrance.
Documents for visa as required. Health insurane covered by premium membership of
ADAC (German Car Club). Issued within 4 working days, used visa agency.
Passed C19 PCR in Helsinki one day before showing up at border.

Entered from Finland, Vaalimaa. 2022.09.22
Waiting/passing time:
Finland 15 minutes
Russia 90 minutes

No questions asked (both sides) regarding money in/out - just regular russian custom
forms. No C19 check.

As known, no cards working. Get yourself some Rubel before you enter.
Banks in Europe will not help you, I used eBay and russian bus drivers in Helsinki.
No exchange tried in Russia so far.

As all German car insurance agencies I asked refused to cover Russia on a green/white insurance card I helped myself, enhanced an old one using well known software.
No check at the border, not of interest for customs, only needed in traffic check points.
Could not notice any opened border insurance shops.
No advise, you are responsible for yourself.

Things can change quick in these times.
But for now I enjoy

Hey Uwe
What's your itinerary in Russia? Are you heading anywhere near Volgograd? I'm hoping to cross the border around the top of the Caspian Sea, coming from Kazakhstan in less than a week. I have a visa.

Not sure if FB works in Russia, or if you're able to use a VPN to get round any restrictions. We're FB friends and could continue chatting on Messenger there. Or on WhatsApp?

We met in Ulan Bataar in 2012, or was it 2013?

Best
Chris

If you are still in Moscow, let me know. Can do a beer and advise on exchange if required

PM sent

Welp, they got there. Mass mobilization is announced, and now the Russian authorities are preparing to ban men of military age of leaving the country.