With vastly increased case numbers, Omicron is now 95.7% of all analysed cases in London, and 93.8% in the whole of the UK. Delta hasn't totally disappeared but is down to about one-fifth of previous levels. See thumbnail chart attached.

A week or so back (post #79), I wrote, "Other reports point out that whilst antibody levels are low with those whose vaccinations were several months ago (lowering protection against infection), B Cell and T Cell response remains good (which helps prevent serious illness). The Omicron variant is better at infecting the upper respiratory tract but has a less powerful effect on the lungs—as some will realise, it's far better to have bronchitis than pneumonia."





Dr John Campbell released a video last night talking about a study in South Africa (not peer-reviewed yet but with impeccable participants) that explains the situation very clearly in a way that ordinary folk can understand.

Nothing is certain in this world, but it seems recovering from Omicron will give (only) limited immunity to Pi, Rho and Sigma—or whatever the future variants are called—but the cross-reactivity of the retained B and T cell memory, means most people won't get seriously ill.

To quote directly from the South African study, "the resilience of the T cell response..... also bodes well in the event that more highly mutated variants emerge in the future."

Agreed, though I don't think anyone has been talking of throwing caution to the winds.

Agreed. It's a math problem, but over 2,700 cases included in hospital figures presented with other problems and were only found to be positive when tested on admission. In a total about turn, NHS chiefs are reported in today's newspapers saying they don't believe the threshold for new Covid-19 restrictions has been crossed despite a surge in hospital admissions. Having said that, we don't know what's in store for us when the figures for family Christmases and rawkus New Year parties come through in the statistics in seven to ten days time.

I might be accused of being naïve, but I believe that with the possible exception of Brazil, governments around the world have tried to make the best decisions balancing the country's diverse needs. In the case of Omicron, one group of experts on the ground in South Africa were saying it wasn't so dangerous, and another group of mathematicians and medical experts in the UK were urging for lockdowns. Whichever way it was called, the government would be criticised.

Time will indeed tell. Most viral outbreaks don't end but rather mutate from a pandemic that society deems unacceptable, into an endemic state where it remains in the background.

Medical staff in the UK were poised for a tsunami amongst older folks but it hasn't happened. Chris Hopson, head of NHS Providers, "Although the numbers are going up and going up increasingly rapidly, the absence of large numbers of seriously ill older people is providing significant reassurance." Though this could, of course, change.

World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus expressed optimism during a press briefing last Wednesday that 2022 may be the year the world ends the acute stage of the COVID-19 pandemic.  There was a caveat—that governments do as the WHO has been pushing for and get the world vaccinated.

His videos are good but I thought at the time that the 20% calculations were suspect. NHS England has now stated that of 8,321 patients in hospital that have Covid, 5,578 are now being treated primarily for Covid, so that's two thirds (but it didn't answer the question of whether or not those 5,578 patients were initially admitted for Covid complications).

When cases were high in counties to the south and east of Germany they were also high in the areas of Germany bordering those countries. Now the pendulum has swung to France and Spain, but I think it's only a matter of a week or so before case numbers in Germany start to rise rapidly.

There's no date on posts, but I think this was from 23 December...
The six reports referred to in today's Guardian newspaper have yet to be peer-reviewed but are reinforcing the view above that Omicron is more likely to infect the throat rather than the lungs, which explains why it is both more transmissible but less dangerous.

But the UK is not out of the woods yet (more like still deep in the forest) and the next two weeks will be challenging for the NHS as the effects of Christmas and New Year gatherings become apparent.

As well as bring tent overflows back into use, a number of other things are being considered including the home use of continuous pulse oximeters that signal low blood oxygen levels to a mobile app, allowing the less-seriously sick to be treated at home.

Martin,
Omicron arrived in Germany in calendar week 46 - 15th -21th of November.
If you want official data to that check Robert-Koch-Institut, they publish a daily overview. This is the one dated on the same day of your post:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

So there are 4044 documented omicron cases up to 29.12.2021.

Sources you find here: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...te/Gesamt.html

P.S.
To all english speaking users:
The Robert-Koch-Institute is a German federal government agency and research institute responsible for disease control and prevention.

Greetings from Hamburg/Germany.

From three weeks ago... The UK Office for Statistics Regulation has warned the UKHSA that Sajid Javid's claim of 200,000 infections per day by mid-December caused confusion after officials failed to justify the figures.

In the meantime South African scientists seem to have taken umbrage with the way the UK totally dismissed their 'on the ground' advice regarding Omicron, see news report.

From two weeks ago... London is thought to be a week or more ahead of the rest of the country with the Omicron wave and is also the region of the UK with the lowest vaccination records. So looking at London gives some indication of where the rest of the UK will follow.

Daily infection rates in London (based on the more accurate date of test rather than date of report) did indeed peak just before Christmas with a rolling seven-day average high of just over 26,200. Since then the daily average has fallen back by 13% to just under 23,000. There has been no sign of a surge due to Christmas gatherings. There is a backlog on tests and it will be another four days to judge whether there has been a surge due to New Year celebrations. Other statistics such as hospital admissions, ventilation cases and deaths will lag infection rates and likely continue to rise even when infections are dropping.

Hospital admissions were running around 150 per day in early December, they increased in middle December to 400, then 450 and peaked at 511 on 29 December, but have now fallen back to under 320 per day.

The number of patients in hospital with Covid peaked at just over 4,000 on 5 January, though one-third of these (NHS stats) are patients who presented for other ailments and were identified positive post admission. There has been a small but continuing drop off in the last four days but it's too early to call this a trend.

Numbers in ventilation beds have risen from around 195 before the Omicron surge to currently 224. Most Covid patients in intensive care are unvaccinated.

Daily deaths have risen from 12 per day on 9 December to now 24 per day, with 90% of these being patients over 60 years of age. Some will likely be Delta patients who were already in intensive care, but there's no statistics on vaccination/booster status.

Staff pressures through sickness and isolation absences are immense, especially in the ambulance service and A&E (emergency department) with some hospital trusts advising heart attack cases to take a taxi to hospital rather than gamble on an ambulance.

Watch out - the Deltakron mutation has arrived….

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/08/cypr...and-delta.html

And if that doesn't get you Flurona will :

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/h...facts-22691215


https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...mation-blooms/

Whilst the Omicron wave is massively steeper and more powerful than any that have come before, it seems short-lived in reaching a peak and starting to come down, but then slower to reduce than normal. 


LONDON: I believe infections peaked in London about the 17-18 December. I have been tracking the rolling seven-day averages of reported new cases by the SPECIMEN DATE (more accurate than DATE REPORTED) and these cases peaked in London on 23 December and have since fallen back from 26,280 per day to under 18,000. There was no obvious mini-surge following Christmas and New Year celebrations.

London's daily hospital admissions peaked six days later on 29 December and have since fallen back from 511 to around 250 per day. Over one-third of these cases are patients presenting for other reasons (e.g. heart) and found to be Covid positive on admission. Others are patients who caught Covid in hospital.

A further six days later on 4 January patients in London's ventilator beds peaked and the number has since fallen back slightly from 245 to 219. Some of these will be Delta cases on long term intubation.


Deaths in London have not yet started to reduce and are currently averaging 36 per day. Whilst this is regrettable, thanks to the protection of vaccines and the lower morbidity of Omicron, the numbers are just one-tenth of those in January 2021 (2022: 36 of a peak of 26,280 compared to 2021: 199 of a peak of 14,344).

Daily new cases per 100,000 population have been 50 to 100% higher in London than in the regions, one possible reason might be the comparatively low vaccination rate in London. Several health professionals have gone on record to say that 80-90% of those in intensive care in London are unvaccinated.

So in summary for London, case numbers were more than double those of January 2022. A very steep increase in cases, and slower than usual decline of case numbers, with death rates just one-tenth those of other waves.



--------------------------------------

REST OF UK: Cases in the remainder of the UK peaked 5 January and average daily cases have since fallen back from 184,000 to around 99,000. 

In early November whilst 95% of all UK cases were Delta variant there were over 1,000 patients in ventilator beds. Today, with reported cases still more than twice that of November, the number of ventilator beds in use has fallen 720. As with London, deaths are still at their peak, with a rolling average of 260 per day.

The results are a world away from the dire scientific predictions of mid December where there were warnings of between 600,000 and 2 million infections per day, hospitalisations of between 3,000 and 10,000 per day and deaths of between 600 and 6,000 per day.

OFFICIAL VS REALITY: Nevertheless the situation on the ground has been far more widespread than the official figures suggest, with the Zoe study estimating that even with the recent fall in cases there are currently over 2.5 million people infected with symptomatic Covid in the UK. The REACT study suggests over 4 million have so far been infected with Omicron and by the time the wave is over it will be more than 6.5 million.

There’s always going to be a gap between actual and reported cases, but the less serious symptoms of Omicron, coupled with widespread distribution of free lateral flow tests have enabled people in the UK to do their own testing, and then if positive decide on their own course of action without involving the government with the results or asking for a PCR test.

Case numbers in the UK do seem to have peaked, though caution again is advised as "infections" is partly a function of how many tests are done. You also have the situation where the virus is now encountering a population who have either been vaccinated or have recovered from a prior dose. This is not the same as "herd immunity" because the R0 of Omicron is too high to be stopped by residual immunity and can to a degree be passed on by low level infection of the vaccinated and reinfection of the recovered.

Despite the apparent passing of the peak of infections the full effect in the UK is yet to be felt since hospitalisations and deaths are both lagging indicators, and both still rising. This is of course exacerbated by long covid and the continuing high absence rates from work (especially medical and teaching staff) due to infection.

How it goes from here depends largely on whether the virus mutates again in a significant way to evade the vaccines. Clearly in the short term it is essential to tailor the vaccines to target Omicron and improve the current half life which stands at around 10 weeks. Without that we are looking at a further deadly wave in spring as acquired immunity drops.

Longer term I wonder if we will ever enter an endemic phase and live with it as we do with seasonal flu. Covid, however, will always be worse than flu - about 3 times worse at current rates. Are we willing to see between 1/4 and 1/2 a million deaths each year in the UK (at the current rate)? One thing is for sure though, it'll always be with us now and the question is not whether we live with it but how. This really needs to be a global approach, because locking borders won't keep it out and lockdowns are socially and economically devastating.

To my mind vaccine passports with a regular booster programme are absolutely essential, to minimise mass spreader potential, to ensure those entering countries are less vulnerable, and to incentivise the ditherers to make themselves safe for the sake of everyone round them. We are past the point where test & trace can work. Tests at borders are pointless when the virus is already rampant. Add mask wearing, hepa filters in classrooms and hospitality venues and an adequate sick pay system so the infected don't feel they have to go into work and infect everyone else. Then maybe you've got some chance of controlling the spread and effects without resorting to panic measures every time a new wave hits.

Whilst it is certainly true that omicron more contagious and faster to spread there could be other explanations on why recedual numbers are still higher: winter, higher R-value.. and Delta and other variants are still around. One of the possibilities that it goes very quickly to create 100% proof antibody protection.

We had omicron-like symptoms twice, beginning of December and a month later; both times after coming in contact with infected, YMMV.

The fairly recent widespread rollout of free LFTs and the cessation of confirmatory PCRs tests definitely confuses the situation, which is why Zoe and REACT are probably better indicators. I've been regularly reporting to Tim Spector's Zoe Study since mid 2020 along with another 4.5 million contributors reporting vaccinations, tests, symptoms and general health.

For sure, but there's still also a huge number of totally unvaccinated zombies out there, especially in London where 22% have declined all vaccinations and only 54% have had booster doses.

Totally agree, and whilst we may be past the peak there will probably be another 1.8 million cases reported by the government in the next 30 days.

Current thinking is that there will be another wave, probably late spring. Whilst hugely transmissible, it wasn't a case of Omicron evading the vaccines, more one of antibody protection (our first line of defence) dropping, which allowed infection. But the second line defence of memory B and T cells kicked in with vaccinated and boosted patients, preventing serious illness. It also helped that Omicron affects the upper respiratory tracts rather than the lungs, hence less need for invasive intubation ventilation.

I'm fairly hopeful—that's what happened with Spanish flu, the remnants of which are still covered in our seasonal flue jabs. I read your article link on the relative dangers of Covid and flu and that was certainly true with Alpha and Delta variants, but I am hopeful that once over, this Omicron wave will be viewed as far less dangerous. And will have given the bonus of a pile of natural immunity to those who have chosen not to accept vaccination.

I hope this won't come back and bite me on the bum, but I feel we are approaching the end game. We couldn't have wished for a better variant than Omicron—one that is eminently transmissible and at the same time far less virulent. In the last month both my daughters' families have been infected with Omicron—a bit difficult to avoid with schools and nurseries—but thankfully with minimal discomfort.



Here's how Omicron affects a 2.5 year Spiderman superhero

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Hindsight being a wonderful thing
 

I am amazed at the naivety of some of the comments, statements, so-called 'facts', redirect links etc about this virus and the chatter that 'it's soon over'.doh
How many more posts and how long is it going to take before the penny drops?... :whistling:

Covid is here to stay, in different guises no doubt just, like influenza and we will have to learn to live with it and cope with various frustrations and restrictions it will cause in our lives including travel issues as and when these arise.

The Halcyon days of travel I have had the immense luck to enjoy are mostly over- just like Brexit, Visas, paper work, we will all have to adapt. They are all a pain but the price we have to pay.
Let us not forget that most people who have/had the time and money needed to enjoy motorcycles/4x4's/camels etc to travel with belong to a very privileged group. A massive proportion of Homo Sapiens spend their lives just surviving from one day to the next. That thought alone may well be a 'whinge killer'.

Meanwhile, here is an artists’ impression of the new variant.
Carpe Diem

I was interested in pandemics from a personal safety viewpoint before Covid became a problem and had actually taken a copy of Adam Kucharski's The Rules of Contagion with me as reading material on my Jan-Mar 2020 trip to Morocco. Since then I've taken the view that knowledge and understanding of Covid is the best counter to apprehension and anxiety.

It seems that most pandemics last between 2.5 and 3.5 years, and that over time the virus mutates to become less life threatening and it then becomes an endemic disease that continues to circulate at manageable levels. That's what happened with the 1918-1920 'Spanish' flu pandemic that killed more people than died in the Great War—protection against modern versions of this virus is included in the annual flu jab.

Part of the reason that death rates around Europe were so high in the early Covid waves is that the virus picked the 'low hanging fruit' of the elderly with co-morbidities, running riot in care homes, with many also becoming infected in hospitals. But even when you take these excess deaths into account there's no doubting the dramatic reduction in virulence of Omicron amongst a mostly vaccinated population, as the figures for France so eloquently demonstrate.

In the 22 months to 31 December 2021 there were 126,000 deaths resulting from just under 10 million recorded covid cases in France.

In the 23 days since 31 December there have been another 6.7 million !! cases with projected fatalities likely to be around 7,000.

World health Organisation Europe Director Hans Kluge stated yesterday that “It’s plausible that the region is moving towards a kind of pandemic endgame.” Once the current surge of Omicron currently sweeping across Europe subsides, “there will be for quite some weeks and months a global immunity... so we anticipate that there will be a period of quiet before Covid-19 may come back towards the end of the year, but not necessarily the pandemic coming back”.

Other experts have also said there is likely to be other waves later in 2022 and possibly beyond, so yes, I believe the only viruses that mankind has managed to permanently eradicate from circulation are smallpox (last outbreak 1977) and rinderpest (2001), but we do manage to live with other coronaviruses and we will have to live with this one as well.