![]() |
Quote:
|
Lies told to Norway before they rejected EU membership
Lies told to Norway before they rejected EU membership
https://youtu.be/i-UbT0g9A8c The campaign to get Britain out of the European Union has taken a three-point lead over the "Remain" campaign, polling firm TNS said on Tuesday, the first time it has found the "Out" campaign ahead since February. Forty-one-percent of respondents wanted Britain out of the EU, up five percentage points from a May 3 poll, while those wanting to remain in the bloc fell one point to 38 percent. Well done Mark Carney, Balls, Osborne & Cable Mick O'Leary et al. Can we have more "Project Fear" from you plz |
Remain 55% - 37% Brexit
IPSOS MORI 18.05.16 |
An outside opinion
I'm relatively new to HUBB, so I should probably confess two (or three) things about myself first:
1. As I recently broke a few bones in an accident, I currently got way too much time, which is probably why I read through way too many comments here - no offense!:innocent: 2. I am German by birth and citizenship (living snd working in the UK for some 5 years now), so I'm not unbiased to all of this but can perhaps contribute to somewhat of an outside view on this. 3. I am an economist and, having previously worked in finance, am currently doing a PhD in international monetary economics. So I can say a few things about the economic arguments being made. I can understand the emotional case people make for Brexit in the UK to a certain degree. Britain has a very proud tradition of the oldest parliament in the world among with the pioneers of free markets and human rights, and it has defended this continent against evil in some of its darkest times, which was appreciated by the turn of history with the loss of an empire. Given all that, advise coming from the other side of the channel is understandably not always appreciated. But then there is the reality of international policy in a globalising world: We don't live in a colonial world any more and and we face a whole bunch of problems that require international cooperation. And for that we need to move to a new understanding of governance, one based on international cooperation. Where we negotiate international treaties that are then defining our understanding on how we work and live together, trade, travel; how we protect ourselves from abuse, fraud, our consumers from malpractice etc. Since these treaties are being negotiated, one will have to commit to compromises and, yes, it implies a loss of sovereignty. Then there is the economics of it. The biggest case seems to be made about migration. Europe seems to be overrun by refugees, in constant crisis and as a consequence everyone seems to want to the UK. First, let's establish that there is a difference between a refugee and an economic migrant and that Europe is by no means overrun by refugees, but rather behaving like a giant ***** in the light of crises in our direct neighbourhood, that we have in many cases at least contributed to. Let's also establish that roughly as many Brits live on the continent as vice versa. But more importantly, that immigration is a good thing! And yes, even in low wage segment. A paper on the economic effects of the balkan refugee wave on the Danish labour market was published this year! Interestingly, since it used panel data one could "follow" specific cohorts of sample individuals and in away track the careers of people. It turned out that, yes, migration did increase competitive pressure in the lower wage segments. But, because the Danish labour market is very flexible, people reacted to this pressure simply by moving occupations to more productive jobs. This led to an increase in wages and employment throughout the whole labour market spectrum. Other research is usually inconclusive or shows insignificant effects for low-wage migration. But I don't know of any recent reputable paper that shows unambiguously significant negative effects of migration. So what matters isn't migration but the labour market structure. Then, there seems an odd conviction of the British that the continent would be economically dragging along. As a matter of fact recent figures suggest that the UK is actually growing below average in the EU, that average income, taking living costs into account, is about average, that overall welfare as measured by the HDI is about average. Yes, the Euroarea is a bit of a pain but given the crises it was confronted with it is doing alright - there were crucial reforms to banking supervision, and, although not complete, a banking union is almost standing. The banking sector has consolidated (not just in Europe) and public finances in most countries have improved. But, yes, there still is a long way to go. But then, we were hit by quite some crises, and the UK has a quite a bit of a public deficit as well I believe. So no exception here. Now, trade. Well, it's actually quite simple. The EU is a customs union. If you leave it you gotta pay tariffs. Thinking that you just simply adopted a no tariff free-trade regime sounds nice, but is also incredibly naive. Do you really think the government would simply scrap all tariffs? Come on! Think Tata, to name just one example. But also examples of tariffs or embargo's used as tools for foreign policy? Surely, the EU's protectionist policies were often horrendous - especially agricultural subsidies. But that has lost more and more in significance. In fact the often dreaded common agricultural subsidies took more than 70% of the EU budget in 1982. Now it's just about a third. When it comes to trade, don't fool yourselves. Yes, Germans will still be selling cars, and French food to the UK but it'll be more expensive and hence less. But more importantly, they'll be all too keen locking up their service sectors and that'll be a real blow to finance in the UK. Regulation. Yes, there is silly regulation coming from Brussels. But guess what, you'll find that everywhere and Brussels bureaucracy is actually relatively small considering the size of the single market. Most of it actually considers norms and consumer protection. I actually appreciate that electrical appliances need to be tested before they can be sold and that food needs to be labeled. Also, the EN norms I think were quite useful. Yes, indeed, you can go on measuring things in stones, pounds, yards and inches, but sorry... it isn't very practicable. Can you give me one good reason why we should have different power plugs? Emission controls I believe are a good thing as well. Or the ban of certain pesticides or animal protection regulations when it comes to a lot of farming ect. But more importantly, you'll have to meet all these regulations anyway, if you want to trade with the EU. Well, then, is the EU democratic? Yes, of course it is! All legislation that comes from Brussels has to go through the European parliament and the European Council. Actually, the Lisbon Treaty crucially strengthens the parliament and enabled it to draft own legislation to become the main legislative chamber. The EU Commission is elected by the parliament in the same way every government is and was clearly running campaigns with candidates for the presidency. When just less then half of the population is casting a vote but a clear majority is complaining about a lack of democracy, well whose fault is this then? It seems to me, that the reason people perceive the EU as undemocratic is because national decisions can be overruled. Well, but then a majority of Europeans was against it. That's democracy! Jurisdiction: The European Charter of Human rights was essentially following a blueprint of an understanding of universal human rights drafted British lawyers after WWII. It enshrined the right to a fair trial, privacy, freedom of speech among other things. It's exercised at the European Courts of Justice in Strasbourg. The UK appoints one of the judges and one advocate general for it. Theresa May has recently criticised it for its rulings on anti terrorism laws and its enforcement on the right for privacy. But frankly, the way the UK government dealt with these rights was at times appalling and people should be more concerned about this. Today I actually saw a discussion on this on the BBC: A "constitutional expert" in defence of Brexit argued against the ECJ because it weren't British judges ruling there. What a condescending thing to say! But frankly what I found quite surprising is to find so much Euroscepticism on this platform. Of all the people, you are the ones benefitting from it. You travel a lot across Europe and clearly benefit from open borders. You only need one currency in Europe and wouldn't have to deal with a multitude of exchange rates. And I bet many of you got holiday homes in Europe or even live abroad. Not to mention cheap airfares. So, you can't be serious when you want to vote for a lot of hassle to come just for a bit of national pride! Cheers and apologies that this ended up so massive (as said: too much time)! |
Quote:
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I'm glad you mention Switzerland by the way, because I'm a frequent reader of the NZZ, a leading Swiss daily. So I follow the debate over there closely. And they can't be clearer about the warnings the sent! Following the referendum on migration, the Bundesrat is now struggling to implement legislation that is in line with the so-called bi-laterals. This is a set of rules the Swiss had to sign in order to gain access to the single market. So, just like Norway, Switzerland is effectively an EU member but can't decide on any policies. And with the recent they might've cut themselves out of the single market which is actually hitting their economy already. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
You might as well say scrap the justice system altogether. Its fantastically expensive and why having checks and balances? People will just do the right think. Seriously, don't be that naive. Quote:
I mean, hey, in the end of the day it's your decision and a lot of us might actually go back to where they came from. But if you think it solves any of the domestic problems that the Brexiters want to make you believe it does, you're mistaken. Nothing will be solved but a lot destroyed, so not too sure about that. Also, I'm just giving you my opinion. So chillax! :thumbup1: |
Quote:
Welcome to the forum and our country. I hope our NHS is treating your broken bones to your satisfaction. In reading your viewpoint I find some of your position to be contradictory; how does restricting our country to the protective confines of the EU and its' customs union correspond with the concept of globalisation? That controlled immigration can be economically beneficial is beyond dispute. This is what we seek in an independent UK. However, your position on immigration is hopelessly naive; EU ideologues see those people who identify themselves as British, Greek, German, French etc., instead of "European" as the chief obstacle to accelerating the single state project. They will want to inflate the population with as many people, both intra Europe and from outside Europe as possible because those people don't carry what they see as outdated cultural baggage, and as beneficiaries of open border Europe they can be relied upon to vote for more of it. It is dangerous gerrymandering. This is most clearly visible by the tear gassing, baton wielding EU border forces and their newly erected barbed wire fences we see on the news. The Schengen system of passport free travel is now effectively dead. The future trade policy is up for grabs. In my view we have no need of any trade agreement with the EU or anyone else. We simply trade under WTO rules. Simple. Your tariffs only contribute to your further economic decline. Goods (including BMW's) will be available at world prices, not at “EU protective cartel” prices. In short, prices will fall, rapidly and steeply. The blow to the finance and banking in the UK is already under way. The City will still face a hard time if we remain in the EU as the UK did not achieve a veto to protect it from greater control by the eurozone and from decisions of the European Court of Justice. In recent years, there has been increased tension between the eurozone and non-eurozone members, with the European Court of Justice (ECJ) having to decide on areas of contention. There has been a trend in which the UK has witnessed a declining ability to influence the regulatory environment for the financial sector, in areas such as the bank bonus tax, the financial transactions tax and the ban on short selling. In view of this, in early 2015, there was a concerted political effort to ensure the ECJ decided in favour of the EU on the issue of allowing euro clearing to take place outside of the eurozone and in London. While this was a significant victory, remaining in the EU does not resolve the issue. In the future it is likely that the eurozone will centralise further, ensuring that the ECJ will have to decide again in the future on areas of contention. Protecting the City was considered one of the most important aspects of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation, but the legal opinion is that water tight protection was not achieved. Regulation? As a German and an economist you will know that your country's Wirtschaftswunder was largely thanks to Ludwig Erhard and his quasi ordoliberal theory. It's emphasis on liberal deregulation is what drove Germany to its' current economic heights. What a shame therefore, that the EU and its' re-regulation will bring all that to an end. Don't take us with you. That the EU is democratic is plainly and so obviously untrue as to not be worthy of further comment. Of course there are some conveniences to the freedom of movement but I have no problem travelling to Switzerland as I just did, or Norway where I wish to go this summer. As for cheap air fares, low cost airlines are my profession; When Stelios, a wealthy, well connected Greek wished to start an airline where did he choose to do so? London. When Tony Ryan finally put his shoulder to the wheel one last time which city pair did he start with? London was one… Each airline, when first attempting expansion into Europe faced concerted and systematic obstruction from local, national and EU regulators and vested interests. Ironically, they are now both strong advocates of “remain” perhaps because their business models depend on the wholesale shipment of PAX from poorer EU countries to richer EU countries. I'm sure Gdansk is a worthy place, not on my bucket list though. The EU now seeks the re-regulation of the airline market through taxation, working directives and a thousand minor regulations Air France, Lufty et al can lobby the corrupt EU commission with. Don't even get me started on Alitalia!!! Good luck with your Phd. You will find that an English Phd is more rigorous than a German Phd and in defending your thesis or dissertation you will come under more rigorous examination than I have provided here. In that and in your arguments for remain I would humbly give you some advice:- ...contradictions can't exist in nature you should therefore check you premises. "You will find that one of them is wrong."All of the above though, is utterly irrelevant; as a scholar you will understand the concept of a moral inversion. For me this is what the EU is. A corrupt cross-section of the culturally prominent and politically connected that loudly damns all the values and virtues that being British embodies; reason, independence, self-interest, and pride in productive achievement and more besides. In this referendum, to pursue their doctrine the EU and their advocates are seeking in us, the sanction of the victim, a sanction they need from us in order to destroy us. It is their only power over us. Don't give it to them. Vote leave. |
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
How can we say this? Well, first because of the group of migrants we looked at - refugees, surely the kind of group an immigration control system would reject. How can we say this is not because of any factors that were actually controlling for? This is dealing with a so-called endogeneity problem: The number of refugees coming into a specific region may be determined the local labour market situation which would in turn be affected by that number of refugees coming in. Thus, we cannot empirically distinguish cause and effect. The way we deal with this is by constructing an instrument for labour supply. And that is the Danish refugee dispersion policy. Because coincidentally, it was absolutely random. That means that when precisely looking at an experimental setup when any kind of control does not matter, do we get these positive effects. And why is that? Precisely because inlanders face competitive pressure! Since when did we start believing competition was something bad? Macro-economically, labour is essentially a factor of production. So allowing for it to be traded freely and internationally (no I'm not referring to slavery but lifting immigration related work restrictions) causes efficiency gains and makes us more prosperous. So why not do it and just abandon all borders? Well, interestingly estimates suggest that world GDP would indeed rise by some 60% if we did that but the problems are mainly political ones. In other words, we simply couldn't agree on the right terms with many countries (availability of e-passports, problems with criminal records systems and all kinds of diplomatic issues). So we ended up in a system where we unfortunately still need way to many visas to live and travel in other places. But within the EU we could and we should really, really appreciate this. Quote:
Well, truth be told, nobody forces the UK into anything. There is a permanent opt out from the Eurozone and now from ever closer union, so it seems quite clear that the UK gets that extra of autonomy and it will keep it. Most integration happens within the Euroarea and the UK won't be affected. But what you talk about is quitting treaties that have previously been agreed and that is jeopardising the relationship between EU and the UK in an unnecessary way. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
Quote:
EDITED BY TIM CULLIS TO REMOVE EXCESSIVE QUOTATION Your economics may or may not be valid. They are your views, one amongst many. As the old joke goes: The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist. The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.Whilst you ignore the existential reasons for rejecting the EU you still dispute its' democratic credentials; I haven't the time to express my personal views on all the ways the EU is undemocratic so I shall relay this concise, short essay. The EU's law-making process is fundamentally undemocratic. Power is vested in the unelected and unaccountable elite who make laws - in secret - to preserve the status of large multinationals at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Multinationals achieve their preferential status by spending enormous sums of money on lobbying. They create a complicated regulatory framework, which only large companies with their Human Resources departments can comply with. This drives small competitors out of business, destroys competition and encourages monopolies, forcing the consumer to pay a higher price for poorer quality goods and services.In choosing to dispute the above you would lead me neatly on to the ultimate error you make; ignoring the “law of identity” :- A is A. Again I haven't the time to define the philosophy in relation to the EU and nationality so I will quote from the good book - and you may or may not "get it": To exist is to be something, as distinguished from the nothing of non-existence, it is to be an entity of a specific nature made of specific attributes. Centuries ago, the man who was—no matter what his errors—the greatest of philosophers, has stated the formula defining the concept of existence and the rule of all knowledge: A is A. A thing is itself. You have never grasped the meaning of his statement. I am here to complete it: Existence is Identity, Consciousness is Identification. And to which I would merely add – I Am British! A is A |
Look, I guess it's pointless going on about this. If you believe the EU is ruled by the Illuminati, then that's your opinion and I accept that. But I won't exhaust myself in something that frankly has stopped being a debate a long time ago. I actually just wanted to state my opinion and I've done that now.
On the 23rd you'll cast your vote and I'll hope for the best and on the 24th the world will still be turning and we will still be biking. In that sense, cheers! |
@ Paul Wohlfart
@ Fastship Outstanding points of view chaps. Simply wonderful to read your highly intellectual comments and arguments. Don't stop. Keep it coming. I'm learning a lot. :thumbup1: BUT puhleeze keep it friendly and open-handed. We are all mates in here. Transcending borders. Always our common aim. bier |
Quote:
So for now I rather leave it to others to chip in! |
Quote:
|
Quote:
Ride safe Wayne |
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 10:00. |