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When will it get back to normal?
Obviously at the time of writing, the novel coronavirus has put a stopper on virtually all travel, people are stuck in countries, others are struggling through enforced quarantine every border they cross, and the situation has changed a lot since people asked on this board "should I still start my trip?" and others said "just go, it'll be fine".
The question is, when do we reasonably expect things to get back to something closer to normal - when should we plan to start the next big trip? My own opinion, and I'm sure others will differ (this is just for discussion, not giving advice) is I don't expect to see any semblance of normality return before 2022. I know some are saying it'll all be over by Christmas (where have I heard that before?) but this is why I think it'll take a lot longer, and why even 2021 may not be a good travelling year:
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Hmm, I’m trying to look at a half full glass at the moment. There is (or there was anyway) a huge travel industry out there whose whole purpose is trying to convince us to follow our dreams, fly here and there, book hotels, cruises (good luck) or even just fly and flop for a fortnight in August. They may be down and out at the moment but those that survive (and it’s in various national interests that industries like these do survive) will very quickly be pushing their wares at the population again.
Our little niche corner of the travel world exists to some extent on the back of mass tourism and they are not going to wait one day longer than they have to before pushing sun and sea and sand at us once more. And it’ll be an easy sell if we’ve been cooped up in self isolation and working from home for months. And it will be months unless the death rates start looking like a WW1 casualty list. When we putter in somewhere on our bikes I doubt very much we’ll be met by locals with pitchforks. Mass tourism will have got there before us and greased the wheels. Ok, the virus has done for the trip I was planning next month (April) but I’m still cautiously optimistic that my next one in August may be possible in some form - maybe 50:50 at the moment. Maybe I’m not grasping the big picture but we’ve only had this bug for a month and serious society wide adaptations for a week. Let’s see how it develops but I’m not writing everything off yet. |
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So far as more exotic destinations - Africa, Central & South America, anything that ends in -stan, etc. are concerned, I think that Des (TomKat) got it right - it will take at least 18 months, and the development and widespread dissemination of a vaccine, before it becomes safe, practical, or even possible for anyone to visit those kind of places. Michael |
Our type of travel will be restricted until our present country and those we wish to visit either have a programme of mass vaccination and the pandemic dies out (but there's no vaccine as yet) or have so many 'recovered' in the population that there's herd immunity and the pandemic dies out naturally. But by then there will be millions of deaths around the world.
The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) modelling was developed in the 1920 by Kermack and McKendrick along with the predictions that in an influenza-like pandemic you needed a recovered percentage of 80% to prevent transmission to the remaining 20% susceptibles. The term 'herd immunity' was coined by Captain Major Greenwood (Captain was his rank, Major his first name) in the 1920s to describe this. I'm currently reading 'The Rules of Contagion' by Adam Kucharski who's a Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and one of the team who's doing the mathematical modelling of likely outcomes for the UK government. None of what's happening is new or even unexpected. This is the UK government's strategy paper on dealing with a pandemic last updated 2011, https://assets.publishing.service.go.../dh_131040.pdf |
Pretty much agree with everything the OP says...
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From the little bit of research I’ve done, I believe, it will depend on 1 of, a combination of or all of, 3 things.
1 - How long it takes for the virus to mutate to a milder state. 2 - How long it takes for a vaccine to be created. 3 - when governments will open their countries up for business. Obviously, every travellers ‘take’ on any of these situations will differ. I must say I’m missing the travel reports on the various bike forums I look at. Stay healthy in body and mind my friends bier |
I’ll put on my lone wolf hat.
I find myself aware of a slightly more optimistic time frame. Apparently numerous national governments are pushing through stimulus bills for much needed aid that, conveniently, include the partial or complete removal of parliamentary approvals i.e. partial or complete removal of democracy for many months. IMHO this is classic smoke and mirrors used by governing bodies for 1000’s of years. The virus, which I know from first hand knowledge, is very real (for me supplementation with Vit D and oregano oil was beneficial) The pandemic status I’m not so sure - just my opinion. If I’m anywhere near correct the pandemic status might just fade as quickly as it emerged. By mid to late April everything could go back to ‘normal’. YMMV :scooter: |
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In a best-case situation, some regions or countries will see new infections begin to decline in perhaps 4 weeks time. Once new infections decline in any given area - large or small - the governments of that area will most likely TIGHTEN travel restrictions into that area to prevent introduction of new infections. I don't see a return to freedom of travel - even local freedom of travel - until either a vaccine is developed and widespread vaccination has been carried out, or until there is strong evidence of herd immunity, and it will require extensive testing to determine if herd immunity exists. Based on what we know today, that implies mid to late 2021. For a perspective on travel to lesser developed countries, which are typically much slower to relax travel restrictions, consider that many lesser-developed countries will still not let you in today unless you produce evidence of current vaccination for yellow fever - even though 50 years or more have passed since yellow fever was endemic in those countries. Michael PS: I'm stuck in Tunisia right now, and doubt if I will be able to get back to Canada before June at the earliest. |
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At the same time, however, by then other countries/regions will probably be at peak infection rates and so under lockdown, or will have mostly avoided mass infections in which case they will want to keep it that way by restricting or prohibiting travel to some degree, especially by outsiders. Either way, not exactly "back to normal" if you were hoping to do a long trip. Even if I thought it would be fun to travel through such areas (which I don't), I really don't want any significant risk of getting stuck in a foreign country for months on end like @PanEuropean. |
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Normality, that is I can travel where I like, subject to visa restrictions, will be a long way off. A comment from a learned gentleman on the TV last night (BBC Question Time, Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief of the medical journal The Lancet) was that when this current situation has cooled down, there is likely to be a re-occurrence of CV/C19 later this year and possibly another in 2021. |
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And these are only the cases that have been tested. Anyone who thinks they have the virus and is self-isolating at home isn't included. Also not included is the asymptomatic cases where people think they just have a cold. Some scientists however suggest the asymptomatic cases are many times higher than the government modellers believe, and if that's the case herd immunity might be achieved and cases start to die down as they have at Wuhan. But without antibody testing of samples of the general population we really don't know. |
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Only the UK appears to be pursuing a "herd immunity strategy" (at the potential cost of more than a million lives). Whether it works or not is questionable, and it certainly won't affect whether we can travel elsewhere in the world :( |
This was written ten or twelve days ago before the recent moves to encourage self-isolation...
The UK government is being criticised for its approach to tackling the pandemic, yet Netherlands is now following the same route. This is an explanation from Prof Ian Donald who is an expert in behavioural factors in anti-microbial resistance and it makes interesting reading... ________________________________________________ The [UK] govt strategy on Coronavirus is more refined than those used in other countries and potentially very effective. But it is also riskier and based on a number of assumptions. They need to be correct, and the measures they introduce need to work when they are supposed to. This all assumes I'm correct in what I think the govt are doing and why. I could be wrong - and wouldn't be surprised. But it looks to me like. . . A UK starting assumption is that a high number of the population will inevitably get infected whatever is done – up to 80%. As you can’t stop it, so it is best to manage it. There are limited health resources so the aim is to manage the flow of the seriously ill to these. The Italian model the aims to stop infection. The UK wants infection BUT of particular categories of people. The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others; the more there are the lower the risk of infection. That's herd immunity. Based on this idea, at the moment the govt wants people to get infected, up until hospitals begin to reach capacity. At that they want to reduce, but not stop infection rate. Ideally they balance it so the numbers entering hospital = the number leaving. That balance is the big risk. All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect. They can also return to work and keep things going normally - and go to the pubs. The risk is being able to accurately manage infection flow relative to health case resources. Data on infection rates needs to be accurate, the measures they introduce need to work and at the time they want them to and to the degree they want, or the system is overwhelmed. Schools: Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. Politically risky for them to say this. The same for large scale events - stop them when you want to slow infection rates; turn another tap off. This means schools etc are closed for a shorter period and disruption generally is therefore for a shorter period, AND with a growing immune population. This is sustainable. After a while most of the population is immune, the seriously ill have all received treatment and the country is resistant. The more vulnerable are then less at risk. This is the end state the govt is aiming for and could achieve. BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will. The Italian (and others) strategy is to stop as much infection as possible - or all infection. This is appealing, but then what? The restrictions are not sustainable for months. So the will need to be relaxed. But that will lead to re-emergence of infections. Then rates will then start to climb again. So they will have to reintroduce the restrictions each time infection rates rise. That is not a sustainable model and takes much longer to achieve the goal of a largely immune population with low risk of infection of the vulnerable. As the government tries to achieve equilibrium between hospitalisations and infections, more interventions will appear. It's perhaps why there are at the moment few public information films on staying at home. They are treading a tight path, but possibly a sensible one. This is probably the best strategy, but they should explain it more clearly. It relies on a lot of assumptions, so it would be good to know what they are - especially behavioural. Most encouraging, it's way too clever for Boris Johnson to have had any role in developing. Things are of course developing - I understand that the Govt are saying the idea of 'herd immunity' isn't part of their policy. It might have been better to call it community resilience. Large gatherings are being stopped and I understand the vulnerable will be quarantined. The idea of school kids being used to spread the virus is badly expressed earlier in the thread. I don't think the govt are "weaponising" our children, but that at this point given they mild symptoms, infection levels and so on, there is currently no need to close schools. ________________________________________________ So basically, until a vaccine is developed and mass immunisation can be given, the only safe way out of this is mass community resiliance (herd immunity). If you mange to totally suppress the virus by lockdown but don't have either immunisation or herd immunity it WILL start all over again when some 'super spreader' flies in from another country. |
This is a very good article on the subject, in a respected journal (US-centric but it doesn't matter where you are, it's the same)
"When will things return to normal? The answer is simple, if not exactly satisfying: when enough of the population—possibly 60 or 80 percent of people—is resistant to COVID-19 to stifle the disease’s spread from person to person. That is the end goal, although no one knows exactly how long it will take to get there. There are two realistic paths to achieving this “population-level immunity.” One is the development of a vaccine. The other is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others—those who contract the disease and then recover—immune. “They’re just Teflon at that point,” meaning they can’t get infected again and they won’t pass on the disease, explains Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor at the University of California at Irvine. Once enough people reach Teflon status—though we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity—normalcy will be restored. Unfortunately, both of these paths could be a year or two long, but degrees of normalcy will likely be won back in the meantime..." Read the rest at: https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...-normal/608752 Here at HU HQ, we continue to watch closely, and mostly "wait and see". And self-isolate! Take care everyone! |
And yet there's always that worrisome little caveat: "... we don’t yet know if recovering from the disease confers any immunity at all, let alone lifelong immunity..."
I have a close friend and professional colleague who believes that things will never be "normal" again--that this is the beginning of an entirely changed world in which all we've ever taken as true will be voided. I'm not so glum as all that, but I'll offer it as a possibility. Personally, I think there will continue to be a lot of death and suffering but that we'll muddle through eventually. It will leave durable scars and be inarguably traumatizing for some, as has been true for past pandemics, wars, and other large-scale disasters. I'm hopeful that predictions of 6 to 18 months are accurate, but I'm definitely hedging my bets. Mark |
Yes, a lot of people seem to be pinning their hopes on the fact that once you have COVID-19 once, you can't get it again. Hopefully that will be the case, but I haven't seen much in the way of evidence to back it up.
Since other common viral diseases (the common cold, the flu, etc.) don't confer immunity against future infections, I'm not sure why people seem so confident that this one will? |
The hope of a durable immunity is not totally without support. Many viruses can give you long-term immunity, whether by contracting the disease itself or by vaccination--smallpox, measles, yellow fever, mumps, polio, etc. etc. etc.
It's my understanding that the same goes for the influenza virus except that it mutates readily, and immunity to an earlier mutation doesn't necessarily imply immunity to a more recent one. It's also my understanding that this particular new coronavirus is believed to be far less prone to mutation than the influenza virus. Note that word "believed." If true, long-term immunity would be a reasonable prediction. Common understanding is that the common cold is caused by at least a couple of hundred different known viruses--including some coronaviruses, many rhinoviruses, and a bunch of others--plus a large number of unknown viruses. You'd have to catch each one before you'd have any chance of lasting immunity to colds. You can look into all of this yourself if you're interested. I'm no expert, but it's not difficult to learn as much as you can stomach. Our very human tendency to opinionate loudly without adequate supporting information doesn't really serve us very well in times of crisis. Mark Mark |
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The fact is that currently there is much that is not yet understood about the coronavirus, including whether or to what extent it confers immunity and the extent to which it is subject to mutation. At this point, any definite assertion on these issues simply can't be considered to have "adequate supporting information," only informed conjectures, at best. |
Not actually aiming that at you, but I see that it appears that way, for which I apologize. I don't know if your internet feeds are as full as mine with unreasoned assertions and scams expressed at high volume, but I'm trying to figure out how to separate myself from a lot of it.
It does seem to me that I offered some answers to your question about why people believe this virus will confer immunity. If you want to call that "informed conjecture," I'm not going to argue. I was merely filling in some information which you didn't state that you knew about; if in fact you knew it all along, but chose not to say so, that's fine--maybe someone else finds it interesting. Or not. I'll welcome any form of rejoinder if you want, but I think I'll go silent unless I've got something really important to say--an unlikely prospect at best. Mark |
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The UK strategy has been deeply suspect from the beginning, starting with a decade of cutting the NHS, 17,000 beds eliminated for "efficiency" and a shortage of 40,000 nurses relative to what it needed. The NHS failed the government's own pandemic preparedness test 3 years ago and the results were hidden from the public they were so bad. More recently the government's strategy was leaked (and denied) as “herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad.”. Well, they would deny that wouldn't they. The UK failed to close schools, pubs, venues etc until a late stage and still runs crowded public transport with many businesses (including building sites) allowed to stay open. This isn't lockdown, this isn't going to slow the spread, the infection rates are already going exponential and that's as a result of infections that were acquired 14 days ago. If that's strategy it smells to me frankly like mass murder. Returning to the OP, other countries will see what has happened in Italy, Spain, the UK etc, and react strongly at the prospect of such carnage ever happening in their own country. At the moment the picture as I see it for travel is even gloomier than I considered up there. Not pointing a finger at any particular country but we are already seeing an uptick in xenophobia :( |
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There are some serious risks/flaws. Without testing you don't have reliable data. Without data you're unable to make the correct decisions. I'm 58 and have, at times, thought "what the he'll, I'm going to get it. Let's get it over with. Having watched Italy and Spain I'm not in that mind set now!! I maybe wrong here but Herd immunity is only a proven strategy when used in the context of "how many of the Herd do I need to vaccinate?" And as a (maybe not) fictitious Government spokesman stated "it's really unfair to expect us to ramp up health care in a few days. It's taken us 12 years to degrade it" :-( |
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I hope it works! |
I no great fan of any of the current choice of politicians from any party, but you have to assume that the government's scientific advisors are making what they see as the best possible decisions based on the information they have. Why would they do otherwise?
To suggest they would they do anything else is close to a conspiracy theory. Yes, to Chris, 'community resilience' is the new name. |
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I'm tracking various stuff to use in projections and the good news which nobody seems to have picked up on is that whilst the Italian newly declared cases are not declining numerically, the rate of increase has dropped, which implies the transfer rate from person to person is now only half what it was nine days ago.
I'm hoping today's results continue this trend. Spain is starting to show a similar trend over the last four days. |
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It's so difficult to interpret the numbers (not yours above) due to the huge differences in testing numbers in particular. The number of recovered patients is, up to now, worryingly low. But you've got to assume that curve is lagging infections and will climb over the coming weeks. I'm pretty sure we've been sat in the house for the last 2 weeks with our son who has had the virus. But of course no way of knowing. We've been pretty focused on wiping surfaces down, hand washing etc. but still assumed we'd get it. But no. From what I can read if you're careful it's a low chance. Unfortunately, no matter how hard we try to social distance both he and our daughter who live with us are front line employees so it's only a matter of time I guess:-( |
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Today's figures are in from Italy and the rate of increase has dropped again.
. DATE . . CASES INCREASE PERCENT |
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Professor Neil Ferguson, Director for Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, was interviewed by Parliament on Wednesday and apparently revised his initial warning of 500,000 deaths in the UK from the corona virus. Now, Professor Ferguson, who has unfortunately himself tested positive for the virus, has apparently announced that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the corona virus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. The interview is here: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Inde...e-1563e67060ee Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a field. I’ll meet you there.' - Rumi |
I guess that'll serve to highlight how much is unknown, perhaps unknowable--including by experts.
I just watched the Trevor Noah interview with our Dr. Fauci, director of infectious diseases in the US National Institutes of Health, who seems in general a straight shooter and not prone to exaggeration or self-aggrandizement. I was surprised to hear him say, about the development of immunity following initial infections, that he was very certain this would occur as it does in "every other virus that we know....it's never 100% but I'd be willing to bet anything that people who recover are really protected against re-infection." You can see for yourself at 10:42 in this ~13 minute interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3j...RwhRyzT67E2znY |
According to Adam Kucharski who I mentioned in an earlier post, there's a saying in his field, "If you've seen one pandemic, you've seen..... one pandemic." Each is different.
Dr Fauci's comment is echoed in the UK, albeit if the virus comes back in a slightly modified form next winter, all bets are off (one of the viruses causing the common cold is coronavirus). |
Has anyone else actually had symptoms? I _think_ I've had the virus, but I can't be certain because testing is simply unavailable for most suspected cases in my area. Unless you have trouble breathing, are a health care worker, or have been travelling overseas, the health system is saying stay home in self-isolation for 14 days.
For me, the symptoms were fairly mild: went to bed on Mar 16th feeling fine, then woke up at 5am with a moderate fever, diarrhea (very unusual for me), a painfully sore throat, a headache, muscle aches in my arms, and strangest of all, a very strong bitter 'soapy' taste in my mouth. Most of the symptoms lasted about 3-4 days but the sore throat hung on for a week. For the last week I've felt completely fine. As testing is just not available, I have no idea if this was COVID-19 or some other bug. Unless there is wide-spread antibody testing I'm not sure I'll ever know for certain. I've been staying in my apartment and avoiding other folks. In theory I'm done with 14 days of self-isolation on Tuesday, but I'm planning to continue keeping to myself and working from home. |
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Two weeks ago my lone wolf call was for a potential return to normal by mid to late April. Today, April 15, there is a rumor that Chancellor Merkel has stated that shops of up to 800 square metres in size will open again from this coming Monday onward while just about everything else by May 4th. Is there anyone from Deutschland listening in that can confirm this for us? If it is indeed true, then it seems extremely likely this decision will create a domino effect for other countries in the near future. And, ignition keys may be making their way back into parked adv bikes around the globe shortly after – here’s hope’n :thumbup1: |
I find myself feeling a bit glum about all this "reopening" talk, and here's why: In my county, population 225k, there are ~260 confirmed cases with 25 deaths. The best-wild-guess ratio is 10 untested cases among the general population for every 1 confirmed case. That suggests that about one in every hundred of us has been infected, but 99 have not (yet).
Given how rapidly the virus spread, it's difficult for me to imagine any significant reopening which would not immediately put the uninfected 99% of us at significant risk. Yes, I know social-distancing-wearing-masks-contact-tracing and all the rest, but still: all indications are that my country, at least, is not really ready to deal with any of this. Of course, there's this other part of me which wants to chime in with the hope that I'll be able to resume my twice-yearly vacation schedule late this summer. I just can't see any real evidence suggesting this will come to pass. My hopes are cheap and plentiful. Mark Edit to add: I got curious, as one does. In Italy, using the same 1:10 ratio assumption, 97+% of the population remains to be infected; in Germany, 98+% remains. There are a LOT of people still at risk. |
Hi all,
Riel: I am not from Germany but can confirm what you wrote about re-opening in Germany. It´s in the german newspapers and it´s also in line with the re-opening of other european countries. I think most things will go back to normal in may/june in Europe. But beware, I am talking about travel inside Europe. Europe was behind China getting the virus. America is behind Europe and will probably open later or Europe maybe opens later for overseas foreigners. A big question is what will happen to other parts of the world, Central Asia, Russia, Africa, South America? Are they behind China-Europe-America? Is the situation there gone be as bad as in the previously mentioned countries only some weeks later? In Europe they are trying to open slowly because they know if they open too soon things may get out of control again. On the other hand, I don´t think you can keep people inside their homes many months without getting revolt, especially when summer is coming. Also the fact that sooner or later the damage to the economy is more then the damage caused by the virus. Regards, Rögnvaldur |
Announced today - the UK government has extended lockdown for a further 3 weeks - it is interesting to note that our lockdown is not as tight as other European countries. They will delay further until a vaccine for Covid 19 had been developed.
AFAIK there has never been a vaccine developed for Coronavirus - SARS has been around for many years. So is herd immunity the only real way out? The Portuguese population went into self directed lockdown well before their government demanded it and they have had a very low contract and death rate - will they get hit hard when they come out of lockdown? In the meantime in the UK we have had a steady stream of victims but flattened the curve and it looks like the health service will cope if things continue as they are. It’s still too early to say what will happen and whose approach will end up being the best. I suspect that, even though countries come out of internal lockdown, there will still be restrictions on foreign visitors ie business only, for a while yet. Hopefully our trip through France and Spain will go ahead at the end August beginning of September but I’m not holding my breath. Cheers |
There's quite a few big spring / summer events being rescheduled into September now - the Tour de France for example - so mainstream thinking may be that it'll be ok by then. My August France/ Spain/ Morocco trip is off but that's mainly because of logistical issues that would have to happen in June / July.
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Unfortunately I don’t think our trip through France will be seen in the same economic bracket :laugh: although we will do our best to boost the wine and cheese industries if they let us in :D I hope you get to reschedule your trip - it sounds a good one. bier |
The Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 killed 20-100 million people and had a pass on rate (“R0 Value”) of 1.8 [Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4169819/] whereas the R0 value for Covid-19 appears to be between 2.25 and 3.5.
As this is a virus that spreads easily unless EVERY person is utterly isolated for weeks at a time with no contact whatsoever (except in their sealed bubble household) then it is going to continue to spread and remain as a virus like the cold that goes around the population all the time. The difference is that this one kills more than influenza or the cold. In the real world we won’t be able to lockdown tightly enough to eradicate the virus because it is too spread out, people need to eat, people go to hospital, people break lockdown etc. The virus is going to be with us from now on I suspect, like flu, and is something we are going to have to live with. Realistically, the only route to avoid significant death tolls is to develop a vaccine AND to change our personal habits and the way that we live - there is going to be a new normal. Sorry for being a little down on the subject, I am just trying to be realistic. |
I read a current research paper (abridged) sorry I didn’t save the source but found it easy enough on non-academic Internet that proposed that the Spanish flu (SF) was fairly mild - the high fatality rate can be, possibly, put down to a world population weakened by WW1. This looks likely as, even though Covid 19 is far more contagious, the mortality % rate is a lot lower than SF - experts say that the population of Covid infected people is not known and is probably higher than conservative figures suggest.
Don’t forget also that the reason SF is called Spanish is because it was the only country to report it and keep records so the evidence base is sketchy to say the least. Again, I’m not aware of any coronavirus vaccine and we’re at number 19 so these messages are somewhat confusing. Without testing we will not know how many people have had it - I know a person who has had it (tested) and didn’t even know, I had the symptoms about 3 weeks ago. They were very mild and I carried on with my physical job but later when I saw what the symptoms were it made me think. So herd immunity may well be on the way. Also viruses usually mutate into a milder form and our antibodies can easily cope with these - I suspect SF is still around with no or little effect. I’m not a “we’ll all be back to normal in 3 weeks” person, I think things will be difficult for 6 months or so ( longer financially) but...... these things have happened before and I certainly don’t believe it’s going to change the world - human nature hasn’t changed during recorded history - over 2000 years. In 2 years it’ll back to the same old same old - doh |
All these postings are based on guesswork at this stage.
Best to keep one's mind slightly open and wait further developments. As a wise philosopher once said to me, "Mate, I've got two balls and neither of them are crystal balls". And for my 10 cents' worth, I choose to believe little of what I read, some of what I am told, and most of what I see. |
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There's an interesting, if rather extreme, mathematical example dating from the 13th century which aptly demonstrates the power of the R0 (reproductive) factor. This involves grains of wheat placed on a chess board; 1 grain in the first square, 2 in the second, 4 in the third, 8 in the fourth, and so on. By the time you get to square 32 you need to be placing 2 billion grains, and by the time square 64 is loaded up the chess board would be holding more than 1,000 times the entire annual global production of wheat.
If, however, the multiplication factor is only 1.2 rather than 2 the final square only needs 97,000 grains. If the R0 can be kept below 1, then numbers of new cases will decline but starting to decline still means they are going up. The balance between new cases and recovered then starts to plateau but it takes several weeks for any appreciable movement. Finally (we hope) the active cases start to fall and the Italian statistics show this happening (shaded in green), but the rate of decrease is excruciatingly slow compared with the earlier rate of increase. [Because of the delays involved in testing and reporting, these figures are historic, so it's likely the real numbers of active cases started to fall a week or more beforehand. The numbers also only track hospital cases and don't necessarily reflect what's happening with less serious cases in the general population.] So this is real knife-edge stuff, the decline is so small that the room for manoeuver by the authorities is limited. I can see only minor relaxation in May in Spain, Italy and the UK and this will be focused (I believe) on preventing the total collapse of our economies rather than personal freedoms. |
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There are hundred+ people in Korea, Japan and China who after being negative and declared "cured" several weeks later tested positive again for covid19. Will surviving covid19 result in long term immunity? Will survivers be carriers after? Those are questions which need to be answered for sure. |
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