With 42 hp, your problem is weight, not space. The weight difference between the 29 and 42 ltr panniers will not be much as they are both empty. What you need to think about is "packing light" and this is not the same as getting small panniers. Get the small ones, and don't pack light, and you'll have stuff flapping all over the place. Get big and fill them and your carrying the same as the scenario above but in an orderly fashion.
However, get big ones and don't fill them to bursting and you suddenly have space for kit you want to lock away when you park up, food, souvenirs etc.
I say get bigeger but don't take this as a green light fill them with unecessary stuff.
Only other thing to consider is rideability. If the bike will looks and feels like a caravan, then maybe go for the medium size.
HTH.
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Adventure: it's an experience, not a style!
(so ride what you like, but ride it somewhere new!)
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