From a Canadian biker living in Tbilisi, a few comments:
1. Risky area is Dagestan, Chechnya etc. - although lots of bikers were riding through without trouble last year.
2. If you turn south at Mineralnye Vodi and head through Vladikavkas, you will meet lots of bikes. Means staying north of the "high risk" area and heading further west before dropping south, but the most popular routing right now for bikers.
3. Do not attempt to enter into South Ossetia - enter to Georgia via Kazbegi / Goudauri. Roads are fine / area is known for rock slides during heavy rains so check before turning south. If that road is closed, you really have no other alternative but to miss Georgia and head south via Ukraine.
Hope that helps!
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