COVID-19 - Morocco Master Thread

[Tim Cullis]

I wouldn't dream of criticising any of the Moroccan decisions, the authorities have consistently acted quickly and decisively. I think case numbers in Morocco are as accurate as anywhere else (i.e. probably less than half the reality) as the percentage of positive tests in Morocco has been healthily low.

In the last seven days the UK has recorded 158.3 daily cases per 100k population which is roughly twice the USA with 74.1 (Canada 52.1). It's estimated two million people in the UK are infected with covid right now, with one person in ten in London.

Deaths are the ultimate measure, and yet the UK daily death rate of 0.15/100k is less than half that of the USA with 0.34, despite the UK having more than twice the cases. The death rate for Canada is even lower at 0.04.

Closing the borders only really gave Morocco a week or two breather, and case numbers are now climbing steeply. A month ago there were 84 Covid cases, yesterday there were 1,184. Currently there are 76 confirmed cases of Omicron with another 276 suspected cases and it seems likely Omicron will sweep through Morocco, but hopefully with low virulence. The authorities predict the peak will come in the week 17-23 January.

[Tim Cullis]

Despite the flight suspensions, according to an article in Bladi.net, the authorities have authorised the landing of private jets for a mega wedding party involving hundreds of participants to take place on 2-3 January at the Agafay 'badlands', a largely wasteland area 30 km to the west of Marrakech. Hundreds of police and gendarmes will be supervising the event and also ensuring safety, whilst in recent days the roads leading to the area have been 'rehabilitated'

[TheWarden]

Private jets have been allowed in for some time. I talked with someone who arrived via private plane a few weeks ago. As ever, money talks and the Moroccan gov certainly likes pampering to the Americans and Israeli's.

Probably more important to members here. is that the UK embassy has stated it will not arrange repatriation for UK nationals. The are also stopping the Consular Warden service in the New Year.

(TBH, those vehicle based travellers who dealt with the embassy, the staff and the wardens during the first lock down didnt have a particularly good experience)

[Tim Cullis]

Almost 4,300 new Covid cases were reported in Morocco today with the rolling seven day average at just over 2,050, more than double the figure five days ago.

Throughout the pandemic the central coastal towns and cities from Kenitra in the north, through Salé, Rabat, Mohammedia, Casablanca and as far south as El Jadida, have been the most severely affected and if anything this trend has become more evident with the littoral recording 86% of today's cases. By comparison the next most severely affected area is Marrakech-Safi region with just 7%.

Testing has been ramped up, however the fact that 19% of all tests throughout Morocco are reporting positive results implies the testing isn't sufficient to record a meaningful figure (WHO's guideline is to increase testing if positives are 5% or more). The reality is that between 50 and 60% of all tests carried out in Casablanca-Rabat regions are positive (and for Omicron), whilst most of the other regions around the country (e.g. Draâ-Tafilalet and Oriental) show very low infection rates and may well still be mainly Delta. Almost all the 38 hospital admissions reported today were in Casablanca which is warning of being overwhelmed, https://www.bladi.net/omicron-casabl...ifs,89378.html

As noted above, the numbers of serious cases being ventilated might provide the clearest indication of the seriousness of the situation. Last August the numbers being ventilated with pressurised face masks peaked at 1,400 with a further 80 being intubated with a tube down the throat. The numbers fell back to 650/40 in September, 300/20 in October, 84/5 in November and 73/2 in December. Two days ago they reached a low of 52/6 and it's likely that all of these, or almost all, are residual Delta cases.

Whilst the increase in case numbers appears alarming these are comparatively light compared to the one million cases recorded last week in France and UK, and Morocco appears to be three weeks behind the curve of these countries. To end on a positive note, new infections in London may have plateaued, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...rwhelming-nhs/ which gives an indication this may be a massively sharp but comparatively short wave for Morocco.

[bikebabe26]

Thanks Tim for such an informative post. Managed to get my booster jab today in Sidi Ifni

[anttof]

Fyi if anyone else is in Morocco and wants to go over to Maruitania. We heard many conflicting stories regarding the land border whether it was open or closed but we managed to cross into Maruitania 2 days ago.

The Moroccans let us leave without any questions asked and we managed to cross rather easily.

[TheWarden]

In the news today....

Ceuta Morocco Border to remain closed until May or June 2022

[backofbeyond]

Originally Posted by TheWarden

In the news today....

Ceuta Morocco Border to remain closed until May or June 2022

And there’s me planning to go through it in August. Fingers crossed time I think.

[Tim Cullis]

Face-saving coverage by the Spanish press—in reality the decision on the border rests totally with Morocco which remains peed off with Spain and is in no hurry to relax the pressure on the Ceuta and Melilla exclaves. Morocco has yet to reinstate its ambassador to Madrid so nothing will happen for a while.

I wish this was not the case, my 690R is patiently waiting for me in southern Spain for another Morocco trip.

[TheWarden]

It was the Moroccan press (I don't follow the Spanish press).

Both sides need to agree for a border to be open, as we have seen with the Mauritanian border, Mauritania says open, Morocco says closed.

This is more due to Spains upgrades to the border post than COVID, installation of new "intelligent" controls and renovation of the buildings. Spain has said several times Ceuta border wont open until this work is complete

[Tim Cullis]

So the stories are the same—claiming it will take more than three months for some upgrades.

Morocco is accused of economic suffocation the two exclaves and there's a whole pile more complications as this backgrounder explains.

The 'intelligent border' is not specifically for Ceuta and Melilla, it's part of the smart border project that the European Commission dreamed up five years ago. I can't see why the delays in implementing this should be used as an excuse to hold up the opening of borders with Morocco.

[TheWarden]

Originally Posted by Tim Cullis

I can't see why the delays in implementing this should be used as an excuse to hold up the opening of borders with Morocco.

Work was supposed to start 12 months ago but the construction tenders weren't issued until September 2021 and the work is just about getting started now. The Ceuta authorities have repeatedly stated that the border wont open until the work is completed.

But its only 1 crossing point, the bigger issue is the ongoing suspension of travel and lack of progress on passenger access to the ferries from Spain.

[sz_22]

Originally Posted by Tim Cullis

I wish this was not the case, my 690R is patiently waiting for me in southern Spain for another Morocco trip.

I still have my GNV ticket for 5 Feb...and completely puzzled, what to do.
Start preparing in time, or wait until 1 Feb to see if closure gets prolonged?

[TheWarden]

There will be an announcement this week probably Thursday after the regular government meeting.

Last week the gov said reopening is a priority but only when the data is favourable and any announcement will be last minute. Currently recording over 8000 cases a day and European case numbers are still high. My bet is another extension.

[Tim Cullis]

Although there's been some days of 9,000+ and 8,000+ new cases of Covid, the seven day rolling average (which takes account of low case numbers over the weekend) is currently 7,250 which is some way off the previous August 2021 high of 9,774.

Something I wrote (elsewhere) on 4 January

Throughout the pandemic the central coastal towns and cities from Kenitra in the north, through Salé, Rabat, Mohammedia, Casablanca and as far south as El Jadida, have been the most severely affected and if anything this trend has become more evident with the littoral recording 86% of today's cases. By comparison the next most severely affected area is Marrakech-Safi region with just 7%.

The trend in the past few days is that whilst Marrakech region has remained roughly the same, Casablanca and Rabat have dropped dramatically and the other regions (Souss-Massa, Beni Mellal, Oriental, etc) have increased rapidly. Thus case numbers have risen by just 20% in ten days.

So it seems to me that the wave is already receding in Casablanca and Rabat.

Having said that I don't think we can trust case numbers (we certainly can't in the UK anymore), so the better indication is probably numbers of patients being provided with oxygen either through masks or intubation. These are currently 203 and 29 respectively, which are slightly down in the last couple of days, but certainly many orders of magnitude less than the highs reached in August 2021 of 1415 and 82.

On past performance the government has shown itself to be cautious in the extreme and I wouldn't be surprised if the flight restrictions were extended, however there is a surprising number of calls from Moroccan epidemiologists for the country to open up.