Rumours...that Iyad Aghally of Niger has created a new movement FPILA for the "Liberation of Islamic Azawad" and joining hands with Aqim - and he was behind the Timbuktu kidnap.
Les forums de Kidal.info || Kidal.info
The Malian MNA appears to have lost their domain mnamov.net
but they are checking vehicles on their turf, two 4x4 with 13 armed Mauritanians were
halted near the Algerian border
The French have moved in with helicopters and aircraft, first to Gao, then Timbuktu
Ennahar Online
French extended the red zone to Nioro - Douentza - Koro

I know only one Iyad Ag Ghali, the former rebel leader from Kidal who had connections with Jamaat Tabligh from Pakistan and was until last year ambassador for Mali in Saudi. Or is there another Iyad Ag Ghali?

Same guy, Iyad Ag Ghali and not from Niger, sorry, but I heard he is there now?
Iyad ag Ghali - Wikipédia

Rumour is spreading
greenpeace magazin: Deutscher in Mali von Entführern getötet - neue Terrorgruppe

"A new Islamist terror group is possibly behind the recent kidnapping of Western foreigners in Mali, where a German was apparently killed. The terrorist group being led by former Malian diplomat and President negotiator Iyad Ag Ghali, reported the French Sunday newspaper "Le Journal du Dimanche", citing an unnamed security experts from Niamey"

Could very well be desinformation meant to discredit him!!
I saw it first on kidal.info

Mali : des otages et des barbouzes - leJDD.fr

"Northern Mali is again in the news by two almost simultaneous terrorist acts: the kidnapping of two former French mercenaries in a small hotel Hombori between Gao and Timbuktu, on the night of Wednesday, and that of three other Westerners , Timbuktu, Friday, where a fourth tourist was killed.

According to one of the best specialists in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity in Niamey, these events are linked to the creation of a new terrorist movement led by a master negotiator of Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure, Iyad Ag Ghali. This former Tuareg rebel leader became an ardent Jihadist after a parenthesis [spell] as a diplomat in Saudi Arabia. Iyad Ag Ghali, described as being ideologically close of AQIM (Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb), has benefited from the return of Libyan Tuareg fighters to form his own armed group. Designated by the Malian authorities to negotiate with AQIM hostages in several cases, he has played such a role in the recent release of three hostages Arlit in northern Niger.

A French, ex-Colonel Jean-Marc Gadoullet, 49 [aka 'the engineer; in Paris Match article], shot and wounded Wednesday in the same check-point of the army in northern Mali, would, according to this specialist, supervised the payment of a ransom for release of three hostages: the French Françoise Larribe, married to a part of Areva and two Togolese officials and Malagasy Satom Niger. The new warlord and Gadoullet, ex-action drive the service of the DGSE, became responsible for the safety of Satom Mali, have been "involved" in negotiations with Franco-Malian AQIM. These have resulted, of course, by the release of the hostages, but also by the payment of a ransom that connoisseurs say the case [raised the price] considerably.
...
While four French hostages Arlit are still held by the emir of AQIM Abu Zeid, the excolonel Gadoullet was increasingly criticized for his ambiguous role. The former soldier, who served on several continents in covert operations, had indeed developed a private security activity extremely ambitious in the Sahel since the end of 2010. Last April, he defended particularly in Niamey, the colors of Areva, a modest regional outreach project called Phoenix [or: 'proposed to the Nigerian authorities to create a militarized security company that would sell its services throughout the region, called Phoenix.']. The Nigerian authorities have foiled [declined the offer], but Gadoullet has not given up either [the idea]. In Bamako, he resumed his cap VRP private security, very active with groups of AQIM.

According to several sources French and Nigerien Gadoullet was then commissioned by France to be the interlocutor of Abu Zeid, and introduced to the Emir by Iyad Ag Ghali at the request of the President of Mali. It is established that at the end of 2010, Abu Zeid was ready to release for free the three hostages, of little value for him, two Africans and a woman. But the negotiations failed when he was about to arrive, sabotaged by the network of contacts Gadoullet. Finally, the release of three hostages in February following cost over 10 million euros, corroborating sources, Areva and Satom. The four remaining hostages are also "put a price on" the sum unheard of of 90 million euros.
...
Wednesday at a checkpoint of the Malian army, Gadoullet refused to stop. He was shot and brought back to France. The two mercenaries ['geologists'], who were employed in the 1990 and 2000 in countries where the colonel himself worked, they knew? And have they been removed [kidnapped from Hombori the day after] for this? These events are, in any case, the signal of a growing confusion in the region and a very bad move for Malian and French authorities."

(Google translate - a little messy, hope you could make some sense out of it.)
So - Gadoullet had €90M in his Landcruiser and was robbed???
And Ag Ghali is the new OBM/Qhadafi??

[clarifications in [xxx] added to original text. Ch]

So what is the current situation on the Algerian route through Tam and down into Niger? I'm thinking about a 4x4 trip this coming winter. Is it safe or is it definitely a no-go?

South of Algeria visa situation unclear, north of Niger is a no-go at this time
but see other more pertinent threads such as
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...-algeria-57191
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...-from-lp-61206
Things may change quickly and without notice

Full story here.

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Mauretania taking hard line stance at the meeting of 10 defence ministers in Nouakchott
AFP: Don't pay ransom for Qaeda hostages, says Mauritania

Are some people worth more than others?
Pour la France, certains otages d'Aqmi valent plus que d'autres | Rue89
Delory's sister accuses France: the two kidnapped were sacrificed
Les deux otages tués au Niger ont-ils été sacrifiés par la France*? | Rue89
French organisation for victims of terrorism
Association francaise

...discussion continued from this post in Timbuktu thread

I would take this one step further - most abductions have involved some careful research on the part of AQIM. Then, in support of the research, a tip-off is sometimes also needed to fine tune the timing of the abductions.

Some examples are:
1) Spanish taken from the tar-road in Mauri - my guess is AQIM were expecting them and were reading the blog on the internet to get the timing right
2) Italian woman from SE Alg - taken from a frequently used camping spot in SE Algeria - here a discussion with local guides prior to the abduction would have taken place - no tipoff on the day as AQIM were disappointed to only find one tourist
3) Niamey restaurant - known as a likely spot to find westerners, then additional tip off needed to give the green light that particular evening. AQIM may well have been waiting outside town for a few days prior.
4) Canadian diplomat in Niger - in this case it seems like the travel details were leaked and the abductions planned days in advance
5) Arlit Niger - planned days/weeks in advance with westerners known to be in mine compound day after day

One of the articles in today's postings show that even in 2003 AQIM (as they were later to be called) were researching the Paris-Dakar route via a mate in the UK.

Somehow a daylight abduction from T'tou does not surprise me greatly. It may even be easier to get away during daylight hours. All the AQIM needed to do was to make sure that there were no choppers nearby that could chase them. They would have known about those odds.

It was expected that AQIM would have an enhanced ability to defend their HQ given the SAMs taken from Libya. Perhaps these recent attacks show that AQIM is more confident in defending their camps from choppers with their newly acquired kit from Libya.

I wouldn't plan a Saharan trip at the moment, but if I were intending to go, then I would still not expect to be abducted if following an usual route with unpredictable timings of departure/arrival in towns and, of course, keeping those visits to a minimum. I reckon the safest trip is in one or two western cars in Algeria with one guide who does not have a satellite phone. That way the visitor can control the route and timings sufficiently to keep things unpredictable. And with no sat phone in the guide's hands, updates beyond the party will not be easily made. As I have said before, the chances of getting taken on a trip like this are still quite low. The problem now is that there is too much upheaval in the previously established chains of negotiation which are necessary for safe release. It is because of the latter that I would stay clear as the prospect of time in detention annuls any enjoyment one might derive from the trip in the first place.

Chris - do you mean the pact not to take tourists from Mali which was supposed to have been established in 2003? If so, what kind of government would let bandits stage a dozen or more raids on westerners and let them be holed up on that government's territory for months on end? Unless the government stood to gain by a slice of the ransom money? There are plenty of examples of the Mauri army trying to sort things out. What has Mali done? And it is on their patch.

My reading is that we are seeing an expansion of AQIM confidence in the region. They haven't been troubled much since they settled down in 2003 and have meanwhile had several successful abductions. They are better equipped than ever and are not concerned about what Mali thinks. In short, the pact if there were one, is history. AQIM feel in charge of the desert.

My purely speculative take is something like this: the Malian state gave away the country north of the river a long time ago. Too big, too expensive, too dangerous at times and nothing there apart from a salt, sand and the lands of the despised Tuareg to the NE (a parallel with Niger). In between rebellions some of the Kel Ifoghas may have been engaged in their own innocuous contrabanding - doubtless as across many remote borders RTW where the price of commodities is so disparate. Then the GSPC (later AQIM) moved in and upset things with their kidnappings, etc.

Don't know how the Taounenni Basin oil thing fits in, but you'd think it would be critical the way things are, or will be in times to come.

The local pact, if there was one, was between Timbuktu Tuareg (Kel Ansar) to have their tourist opportunities (music festival, etc) left undisturbed while the storm raged all around and the commercants in town got on with business, legit or otherwise, possibly with Tuareg guiding, GSPC protection or whatever.

Elements of the Algerian, Malian and Moroccan states (most probably generals and minsters) are in on it - that is how it prevails to this day. I dont suppose it's so different from many other countries (Egypt, Pakistan, former Ghaddafi clan) and now we are told (IIUC) some French DGSE bloke wanted his bite [of the €90m ransom]!

Mori seem not to be signed up - or have their own thing going. And I think stakes have been raised still higher in recent years by the much greater quantity of South America cocaine landing in Africa via Bissau (govt on the take) and so on. High demand and lots more easy money to be made per kilo than with cigs, refugees or arms.

Only partly revelant, but I thought this quote here by Hugh Roberts summed it up well:

It's all about trade, money, survival and vested interests of the few; be it funding the GSPC jihad up in Kabylia, Polisario aspirations, France's access to cheap uranium, or the governor's new palace and a Paris education/shopping for his kids.

Could all be rubbish, of course!

Ch

PS: 'My dear compatriots'
Mali president ATT's appeal (2 days ago) following Hombori and Timbuktu events:

Google Translate

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