Dave, the Americans have had a very visible presence in Gao for years now,
This hasn't had much if any effect on what is going on in the surrounding desert as far as I can tell.
American opinion is as usual divided between those who would like to move in and "clean up the mess" (Cheney style) and those who don't give a damn.
The French are playing dirty games like always, as per the above article.

Recent development probably means a setback for any effort to improve the situation and eliminate the AQ threat.
Gulf Times – Qatar’s top-selling English daily newspaper - Opinion
"The capacity for military co-operation against Al Qaeda cells operating in North Africa has been undermined by a coup in Niger last month and rising tensions between governments in the region.....
The capacity of Western nations to fill any widening of the Saharan security gap due to regional diplomatic tensions may also be undermined by deepening mistrust between them and the North African states.
Algeria, a regional counter-terrorism powerhouse, has accused France of orchestrating Mali’s prisoner swap to save hostage Pierre Camatte, and has also resisted Western pressure to pursue AQIM beyond its borders.
“The way the French hostage has been released is a dangerous setback in the fight against Al Qaeda in the Sahel,” said retired Colonel Ahmed Adimi on Algerian state television. “The visit of (French President) Sarkozy to Mali is in itself a victory for Al Qaeda,” he added.
The prospect of increased Al Qaeda activity in the Sahara could hurt tourism revenues in places like Niger and Mali which, according to the World Tourism Organisation, rely on sightseers for more than 4% of their respective GDPs.
“The dollar figures are fairly negligible, but as a percentage of GDP they are extremely high,” said Porter.
Tuareg rebels active in Niger and Mali have begun cooperating with Al Qaeda cells in recent months because they are able to make more money through ransoms and drug trafficking than they could from their share of tourism revenues, according to security experts. — Reuters"

^ Makes for a depressing read.

Is it fair to say that Northern Mali is AQIMs main sphere of influence? Do people think Niger and Mauritania will soon find themselves in the same situation?

Sorry if this sounds ignorant, but it seems to me that AQIM have entrenched themselves in northern Mali and from there launch raids over the borders into Mauritania and Niger.

Are there any articles which suggest AQIM have bases in Niger, or do they simply work with disgruntled Tuaregs? From what ive read it appears that AQIM grab what they can in Niger and get back over into Mali as quickly as possible.....seems like they dont like hanging around in Niger for too long.

I suppose one issue for AQIM with regards the threat to Niger is that the capital Niamey is so close to the Mali/Niger border (well, in camparison to Nouakchott Mauritania being close to the Mali border).....is is possible that AQIM worry about a swifter mobilisation of Nigers security forces to try and catch them? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part?!

Do people think that with the military junta overseeing a transition period back to civilian rule (InSha'Allah) things for Niger (with regards the AQIM threat) will improve or deteriorate?

Curious what people think.

In reply to DTH-

I reckon AQ-IM are in NE Mali because:
1) it is possible to live there (i.e. remote, but has water + topography to get in amongst and hide)
2) they now have good connections in the region
3) the Mali army is inept - certainly more so than Mauri, Alg or Niger.

What about the military govt in Niger? For the moment they have their diary full with running the country, so they are not expected to be out hunting tigers as well. BUT if they decide to, then I think they would be more effective than if they (as military) were acting on instructions from politicians. Any war is slowed down when managed by a cabinet. If the military run the country, v.quick operational decisions can be made. The trouble is other countries (notably Mauri and Algeria) can't mount unilateral rades into NE Mali without either the advanced permission of Mali or some kind of comeback on them. In this sense AQ-IM have got their tactics right. Algeria must be busting to take their Mi-24s over the border and hose down AQ-IM. Check out Google Earth - you'll see 4 choppers (prob MI-17s) on the apron at Bodj Mokhtar, 7 km or so from the border.

Le Matin - Paris et Washington vont-ils intervenir au Sahel ?

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

Tahalil Hebdo - Sept pays condamnent prises d’otages et paiement de rançons

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

AQIM renews threats, urges jihad (Magharebia.com)

Interesting read.

Droukdel possibly out as leader of AQIM (Magharebia.com)

... a prominent member of [AQIM?] had surrendered several days ago to security services [at] a province on the border with Niger, before being transferred last week to Algiers where he made very serious statements about the dealings of the leaders of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat and the French intelligence services.

This post by Ulrich a few days ago (actual link here now) seems to have slipped by without much comment apart from 'dirty tricks'.

...following the dealings of ... Abu Zeid with French intelligence and particularly after the French campaign against Islam, including the latest against the Islamic veil..

Abu Z ...succeeded in 2006 to establish channels of contact through a foreigner who was working in the field of oil in Hassi Messaoud...

it "...reveals the existence of direct contacts between leaders of the organization, and French intelligence agents (DGA) to enable the French military to be informed about the situation in the Sahel region".

How cozy! Are we expected to believe that AZ was having discussions with France about the ethics of of suppressing the hijab and at the same time keeping them abreast of its ops?

Then again, AFAICT, DGA is the weapons procurement arm of the French MoD, rather than an Mi5-type organisation.
I think ennahar might have meant: DGSE

Anyone want to attempt an explanation (excluding 'tunnels') - I've gone a bit thick. It makes you suspect that ennaharonline might be a DZ state mouthpiece incorporating an anti-French agenda. Or just lazy journos? Some ennaharonline articles look a bit sensational.


There is also a small 'where not to go' map on Ennaharonline with this article (which otherwise doesnt say much).

It's not quite how I might have drawn it; the Fezzan looks especially dodgy!

Ch

Attached Images

 

__________________
Morocco Overland 4 pre-order for Xmas • Trans Morocco Trail

I have to say, I also don't understand the article that Chris Scott discussed in the previous posting. It makes very little sense to me.

I do think I understand the map - including the dodgy Fezzan shading. It looks to me that the map simply links all the points where kidnappings have happened to NE Mali by means of thick shaded corridors. The Fezzan shading comes about because of the kidnapping of the Austrains in Tunisia. They were transported down the Algerian/Libyan border and for that event, the map earns a large shaded corridor in E Algeria and W Libya. It is no real guide to where the next events will happen.

It looks to me that the map simply links all the points where kidnappings have happened to NE Mali by means of thick shaded corridors...

Well if it means to show that then it does so pretty badly too IMO, assuming it was drawn to accompany the article and following kidnappings 3, 4, 6 and 7 (as shown on the kidnapping map pictured earlier in the thread). And how does north Nigeria fit - other than a place of sectarian violence involving Muslims?

Overall though the map is nothing to get too steamed up about.
Private security consultants get paid a lot more to produce less accurate info.

Ch

__________________
Morocco Overland 4 pre-order for Xmas • Trans Morocco Trail

In a news conference, Mr Gaddafi called on Libyans currently fighting in Algeria and in the deserts of Mali to lay down their arms, saying they could come back to Libya as free people and reintegrate as productive citizens.

BBC News - Libya frees more than 200 Islamist prisoners

Ennahar claims to actually be the "first independent daily" in Algeria. Run by two journalists, a private enterprise, no state connection.
But their reporting raises suspicions. The spaniard/israeli who disappeared in Hassi Messoud has been reported first hand only by Ennahar, and their "corroborative source" seems to be the only one?
And this Mossad agent is said to have been smuggled into the country by an Egyptian company owned by a coptic Egyptian businessman. So they are suggesting a plot involving jews and christian Egyptians? Hmm.
And the reporting of AQ training camps in the Israeli desert is, well - it is still on the "most popular" list.
I would have marked the Gao-Menaka region in Mali bright red.

From the Algiers conference, there may be some results. A wider French and US involvement (perhaps this is how Kouchner persuaded the Malians to set four prisoners free - - - one wonders what else they promised).
Air surveillance and bombing from airstrips in the Mali desert. And a US Africom base in Tam??
North Africans mull anti-Qaida airstrikes - UPI.com

maliweb - Espace sahélo-saharien : Mandat d’arrêt de Nouakchott contre un chef salafiste

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

'Several Western states' need to do some homework about insurgencies! If we know bombing is a tactic, so does AQ-IM. The simple response is to divide into small groups. Bombing groups of 3 people doesn't make sense. For the tactics to be effective you'd need to bomb first and then talk about it in the press. Not the other way round!

Yes, I spotted the rather pointed 'Coptic' ref too.

Re: the US Africom base in Tam. As we know there is a nearly finished installation there just north of the airport but with no exclusive runway.

I read a few documents by a US Saharan counter-terrorist specialist Lianne Kennedy-Boudali the other night (2 from 2007 on Welcome to the Combating Terrorism Center, and one Senate testimonial from 2009) in which she suggests people, including locals, assumed the installation was for Africom because it was being built by Brown & Root (Halliburton subsidiaries?), when in fact it was for the Algies. (Construction stopped amid corruption allegations not unlike those plaguing Sonatrach at the moment). You do wonder why the Algies could not build this themselves unless it is super hi-tech and was built in return for oil and gas concessions.

Of course writing for West Point might cast doubt on LHB's impartiality, but nothing else I read in her docs looked like it had a hawkish agenda. She seemed rather rational and coherant, especially about the move from GSPC to AQIM as well as predicting Droukal's shaky position which seems to have come to pass according to Dave's post above.

Regarding the French engineers building new? air strips in north Mali. You wonder why bother, they have all the all-weather runway they need at Bordj Moktar, the same at Agadez (both just 600km from the near-Menaka 'Red Zone'), and a mile long strip at Chegga (all in 'safer' Alg, Niger and Mori respectively).

Perhaps part of the deal is Mali gets improved runways at Tessalit and especially Kidal and nice new airstrips elsewhere to better control the area in the future.


Maybe this is has been said already but the more I think and read the more I feel there are two separate 'narco-Salafist' groups out there in north Mali:

MBM (whose latest arrest warrant Ulrich has announced above) based somewhere in the Taoudenni region for many many years - good for fast smuggling routes. Notably MBM never joined up with the re-branded AQIM and long before this all started was seen as purely a crim-businessman and even a Robin Hood figure (who has also been killed/arrested several times/retired to Togo/blamed for the falling £/got an amnesty/surrendered/works for the DRS/does not exist at all).

And hardcore AQIM Abou Zaid down to the southeast, north of Menaka, where most hostages have been/are being kept, including unfortunate Edwin Dyer. Definitely exists and not a Robin Hood figure.

all idle speculation of course...

Ch

__________________
Morocco Overland 4 pre-order for Xmas • Trans Morocco Trail