Travel now?

[LD Hack]

I'm trying to decide whether to travel to SA this September/October - Peru in particular, staying in country. Currently their vaccination rate for at least the first shot is around 30%. They had very high infection rates during the spring surge, to the point where one person I know believes this created a level of herd immunity throughout the country. The WHO weekly confirmed new cases chart is quite low.

This is a difficult decision to make, mostly assessing the level of risk, and whether it's of a level of high concern. Another variable is the potential for an upcoming surge; the delta and lambda variants becoming established.

Then there is the issue of "gringo traveling in small villages" and the local population's perceived threat that a traveler may spread covid. Yes, I'm vaccinated, but I wonder what the perceptions well be. Will the traveler be shunned, cautiously or reluctantly welcomed...

I'm interested in hearing what other travelers are thinking about this issue.

[brclarke]

The way I see it, there are three possibilities: things could get better, things could stay about the same - or things could get worse. The first two situations, you know how to deal with, but what about the third? If you're in the middle of your tour and things get a whole lot worse, and the borders start to shut down again, what's your plan? Worst case scenario is that you'll have to lockup the bike for 6-12 months and fly home.

I have no idea what the odds are of that third scenario. Perhaps 1 in a million, but it could happen. You have to decide if you can afford to take that gamble.

[Rapax]

I think there is still a big misunderstood existing regarding vaccination. Right now the vaccination rate of a country or a continent doesn`t predict anything about the future progress of the pandemic or your personal health condition as a traveller.

Think about Isreal or UK. Both have a quite the same vaccination rate and both show an increase of infections. Also both, Israel earlier than UK, decided to easing restrictions for different reasons. None of the vaccines both countries used offer a complete protection against hospitalization due to the Delta variant.

The experience and evidental data the world has got up to now with C19 vaccination shows if a partially immune population starts replicating a virus by high numbers of infections, it will inevitably produce escape variants of the virus. India is the best known proof for this.

What will the world do if one this escape variants will be vaccine-resistant?

You should be aware of that even if you are vaccinated by what vaccine whatever, you can get infected with a C19 variant. In the majority of cases you will be protected against a perilious course of illness.

You as a vaccinated traveller and the vaccinated people of the area or country you are visiting could be a possible spreaders as well. There is no medical evidence given up to now that excludes these possibilty of virus reproduction. This fact could give power to virus to convert itself into a vaccine-resistant one.

It is equal if you travel or if you stay in your home country. Every country which isn`t vaccinated to 100% or to a rate to recieve herd immunity will take part in the game of virus mutations.

In the moment nobody can predict in what kind of pandemic situation the world will be in 2 month. The worldwide vaccination rate is still everywhere much to low to prevent further mutations.

As brclarke said: It`s a gamble in the moment and you decide about your bet!

[Tomkat]

Personally I'm staying in my own country this year. The situation with the virus is still too unpredictable, as are the actions of governments at their borders. Even though I'm fully vaccinated I don't want to get stuck somewhere or quarantined or be the one who brings the virus to a village. There's plenty of time to travel without being foolish or selfish. I'm planning my big one in 2022 but I won't firm up plans until early in the year, just in case.

[newguyjon]

My friend and I plan to start the ride from USA to Argentina in November of this year.
In my experience traveling the world, it has always been one thing or another.

In Mexico City it was an earthquake.
In Indonesia we had to cancel plans due to Mt. Agung erupting, and had to cancel Rinca Island due to flooding.
We visited Myanmar just in time before the country again became embroiled in civil war.

That said, you just have to exercise caution and discipline during the pandemic. Naturally, avoid crowded areas, be clean, and wear a mask (at least one country along the route requiring two masks now). I know that of the <40,000 tourists to Thailand in the past year, people were able to enjoy entire beaches and other retreats all to themselves. The same holds true in other tourist destinations, such as CA and SA. Yes, COVID is rampant, but less crowds and tourists out and about = less human interaction, which is my type of traveling.

The world is very, very small now. I know that if I waited or canceled travel due to unfavorable circumstances, I would not have visited many of the places that I have been to.

Make no mistake, I am not recommending you to travel if you are not comfortable with it, I am just adding food for thought.

[TerryTheLuddite]

This is something I've contemplated a lot since covid sprouted up. I've been saving for a few years and originally planned to leave February this year. I bet a November departure would work out.

For me it's less about whether I can technically ride through all the borders and more about when the most optimal time is. I bet I could ride for a long time in mexico and thread the needle through the borders as I'm able to, but the whole thing would be a lot more enjoyable if i could press forward in a more carefree manner. A big aspect of travel is interaction with people. If some countries have populations which are apprehensive about outsiders, I fear that the experiences have a lot less potential.

On a personal note, having to push the departure date for myself has caused me to back out of the escapism mindset I've been in for these last two years. I'm going to love traveling (probably next year), but its been good to save more and explore the mountains here.