I thought I would share this little piece of optimism with you, not so that you will go on an African Love Frenzy (the risks are still severe), but so that you can travel without being overly paranoid about getting infected, or overly dismal about the percieved suffering arround you. Don't get me wrong, the situation is still bad as hell, just not as bad as first thought, and also getting better. Its gotta be good fpr something, right?

I sourced the following information from the Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet. I've taken the liberty to edit out the stuff of less interest/relevance, and translate it in my own lingo. If you want to read it in its original form and don't understand Norwegian, take a course

A fresh study financed by USAID and other corganisations, undertaken by ORC Marco, concludes that previous UN and WHO repports vastly exaggerated the African AIDS problem, mainly because of studies using poor data collection methods, leading to studies with poor reliability and validity (this new study is supposedly muh more reliable and valid, but what do I know.The findings of the new study is supported by numerous other independant experts and organisations, so I won't argue against it).

The UN and WHO have been blaimed for excagerating the situation to get more money flowing. Washington Post refers to the study and writes that UNAIDS denies having had any politial or financial motives behind the inaccurate repports. The UN has repportedly used only small and limited population samples for entire countries, with pessimistic conclusions about the extent of the epidemic. Several independant studies have been performed, indicating that the UN numbers were way off. The new study makes a closer examination of 16 countries and conlude that the UN numbers are too high.

AIDS in Africa has never been as Galopping as first thought, and have never reached the astronomical proportions often believed. In fact, several studies in East Africa indicates that the epidemic is on a decline, and never reahed the estimates UNAIDS had for the region. In adition, the UN have to adjust its numbers for its core area, namely central Africa.

The study finds that there are vast differences. The study shows that the epidemic is more closely tied to urbanised areas than previously thought, and that lack of data from the rural areas, have led to wrong numbers. Also, tests of pregnant women were commonly used as a source of data, leading to highly unrepresentative and exaggurated data (over representation of young sexual active women).

Population studies performed with a representative selection of the population indicate vastly different infection rates. A study in Kenya indiates 8% and not the 15% calculated from the use of pregnant women. In line with the National studies, the number was reduced to 6.7% in 2004. In Burkina Faso the UN meant that 6.5% was infected, while the new studies indicates 1.8%. For Sierra Leone the gap was 7% in 2002 and only 0,9% in the new figures.

The Boston Globe repported in 2004 that the number of AIDS infeted may be exagurated as much as 25-40%

In Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe, the numbers have gone down.

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Southern Africa and more specifically Botswana and Namibia have the highest infection rates in the world. The official Namibian prevelance rate is 23% but then considering the number of unreported deaths and the fact that MOST deaths are attributed to TB or menengitis to avoid the family suffering the stigma of having Aids in their family; who knows what the actually figure it.

Some other stats:
- 40% of deaths in SA were aids related in 2000
- 1 in 5 teachers in South Afrcia are infected with HIV/Aids (What happens to a country when it's education system collapses)
- Cases of Aids deaths in SA Prisons has increased by 750%
- but there are signs that the infection rate has decreased compared to the 90's

This coming from a country where the President first said that Aids doesn't exist and the vice president said taking a shower after having sex with an infected person will prevent you front contracting Aids.

Europe better watch out because with the massive influx or foreign worker and immagrants there is going to be a marked increase in HIV infections (has already). Considering the high number of STD cases amongst teens in the UK it's going to have a devastating effect.

Arguing about fractions of percentages is irrelevant. The fact is that aids is a highly effective killer that has already had significant effects on the Southern African and Asian populations and economies. Everyone has been talking about it for decades but have only recently started taking it seriousyl but there is still a long way to go.

http://www.iolhivaids.co.za/index.ph...596&fSetId=612

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HIV/AIDS is decimating souhern africa and to suggest otherwise is dumb.

What are you getting at here Wheelie?

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cancel your trip, Wheelie, and go and live for a year in an east african village, preferably within eye sight of the local health centre.

I don't think you'd be posting such crap after that experience.

Hey, hey, easy now... don't shoot the messenger.

I am only refering to a newspaper article refering to reports that says that all numbers are not nearly as bad as some numbers repported by the UN and WHO, which even the UN and WHO has had to agree to having been too high. This is not the same as saying that things are still not horrendously bad, which the obviously are just not as super insanly bad as first thought, which I find is good, which was my only point. Nor is this any post trying to say that everything is nice and peacy and in anything close to good order. I'm sorry if my post was percieved to have any such connotations, which was never my intention. As my post was not a direct citation, I understand that one could easily mistake the words of others for my words, such as "vastly overrated"... clumsy of me...

Also, I'm sure that you are right, that visiting an east african health centre would not be such an assuring experience. But, if the repports that this newspaper is refferring to holds any truth what so ever, there should be some comfort, that atleast in some areas, that things are not as bad as first thought, and that in other areas still, things are getting better, however marginal.

I did not write any of these repprots, and I can't warrant which ones hold the truth (many serious sciencetists and organisations do seem to support many of its findings). But, when accredited repports come along that show us a light in the end of the tunnel, I find that remarcably wonderful news, news which I very much welcome and hope to be true. I don't think this is posting crap.

At an end note, I am aware that this is a touchy subject, but there is still no need to get personal. Sound arguments, factual information, statistics, referenes to other sources, accreditations, or other comments which may either onverge or diverge from the original post are very welcome, and fruitful. But not bashing the attempts of others at contributing information, thought or insight, intended to be a positive contrubtion to the forum. I'm simply passing on info here...

My reccomendation, follow the suit of Bossies. Great post!

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unless one forces the entire population to undergo a hiv test, the data collection and obtained results will be incomplete and wrong. Geography and cultural habits matter a lot, to name just two of many factors.



As I understand it, this is a forum and one is allowed to give his/her opinion on the postings of others, and vice versa. Reading the provocative title and the content of your post, I believe you have absolutely no idea of the impact of this disease, nor of the way the governements are (not) coping with it.
Sometimes it's usefull to call the things by their name.

Hi Wheelie:

Although the article you cited may make some good points (data collection in Africa is unreliable, and data published in the past may not be accurate), I think the general picture is pretty much unchanged - HIV infection is endemic in Africa, and probably will be for the rest of our lifetimes.

I have worked in Africa for 20 years now, as a pilot for various humanitarian organizations. I'm not a health care specialist, just an aircraft pilot, but very frequently I serve the health care people, meaning, the plane I fly is full of medical evacuations. It's not hard to tell when people are seriously ill, nor is it hard to spot the symptoms of the opportunistic diseases that often accompany the end stages of HIV infection.

I have also noticed that in many cases when I have returned to a country that I worked in for a long time (more than a year) after being away for 5 or 10 years, the majority of the local employees I knew when I was there before have died. It is possible that they died from other causes - Lord only knows that there are no shortage of diseases on that continent - but considering their demographic (typically between 20 and 35), my guess is that they probably died from the consequences of HIV infection.

I don't think that visitors to the continent have to be overly concerned about HIV, provided that they keep their clothes on. The risk of health problems from other causes - unclean water, insect bites, and so forth - is far greater than the risk that HIV presents to a visitor who is not sexually active.

Michael

Well my friend did you know this? This report has been overrated not only in the provinces that you say but the same has been done globally and there are people who are now admitting their mistake that more than 50 percent of the global cases have been inflated. Now what do you think made this vital mistake in such a vital data? I am clueless and so are the ones who conducted the studies.

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I do not think ulcer is a serious complication now

Well yes I am sure that The West will want to try it's damndest to pursuade the world that there are not that many people dying of Aids. This will then substantiate the decisions to divert aid money elsewhere, or not at all. Especially now that they have bigger personal issue to battle i.e pollution, GW, CC etc. then again small or troubled govenments (eg Zimbabwe) will also deny the existence of the problem to make an attempt at making their country more attractive for foreign investment.

What benefit is then in inflating the figure? None. The aid money is a drop in the ocean compared to foreign trade investment and wil make foreign investors hesitant to invest in an "infested" country where the labout force is dying off.

Go to these places and see for yourself how many are dying...then come tell us that the figures are overstated. General concensus amongst medical professions who actaully work in infected areas is that most official figures (Govenrment and provate studies) are generally UNDERstated.

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My friend, Education is the key to provention to Aids Certain groups are not getting the message and risk the exposure rate of aids. if you have a health nurse..consult her on some methods like keeping your privates covered and using a condom if you have sex...std are not fun when you have to suffer the consequences

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