You do not loose your deposit if you do not return as long as you prove a final import with all import duties covered for the vehicle to the issuing authority.
The deposit used to be 100% but some countries (Egypt!) are famous to give you trouble by simply not accepting the carnet so you might have to put down an even higher deposit to cover for those countries, temporarily import the vehicle into these countries or avoid them.
Very little choice in SA looking at new bikes (officially imported):
The Suzuki DR 200 will probably be your best bet. Second hand looks better. There are good numbers of XT, XL and KLR250 of all vintages around and they are often reasonably priced.
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