In an attempt to lighten the mood....

This too shall pass...

Let's not get too stressed about this COVID mess - chances are that before the end of winter, things will improve.

Michael

Mutation: A mutation refers to a single change in a virus’s genome (genetic code). Mutations happen frequently, but only sometimes change the characteristics of the virus.

Variant: A variant is a viral genome (genetic code) that may contain one or more mutations. In some cases, a group of variants with similar genetic changes, such as a lineage or group of lineages, may be designated by public health organizations as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or a Variant of Interest (VOI) due to shared attributes and characteristics that may require public health action.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...fications.html

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Reported new daily Covid cases in the UK were around 120,000 today and it is suggested that 1.4 million people in the UK currently have Covid. Yet despite the high numbers, the overall death rate has remained at the 112 persons per day level of October 2021 when the infection rate was less than one-third that of today.

Even the most blinkered statistician can't ignore the disparity and after several weeks of denying the validity of the reports coming out of South Africa regarding the reduced dangers associated with the Omicron variant, the UK Health Security Agency has issued an analysis that states Omicron patients are up to 70% less likely to need hospital care compared with previous variants.

Other reports point out that whilst antibody levels are low with those whose vaccinations were several months ago (lowering protection against infection), B Cell and T Cell response remains good (which helps prevent serious illness). The Omicron variant is better at infecting the upper respiratory tract but has a less powerful effect on the lungs—as some will realise, it's far better to have bronchitis than pneumonia.

Only a proportion of PCR tests are analysed for Omicron (90,906) but using SGTF S-gene dropout as an indicator suggests 193,783 cases—still a wild understatement. But of these 193,783 cases, only 300 have been admitted to hospital and 24 have since died. According to medical staff, the vast, vast majority of admitted patients are unvaccinated.

I've been studying the London statistics and it seems new daily cases are close to peaking. The rolling average deaths in London for the last eleven days have been 12 per day which is less than the rate in early November when cases were one-fifth those of today. Just under 2,100 patients are in London hospitals, mostly unvaccinated, compared with 7,900 at last January's peak.

Elsewhere in the UK cases are still increasing and one of the fears is that a milder virus could still put pressure on hospitals because it spreads so fast. The UKHSA says its early findings are "encouraging" but the variant could still lead to large numbers of people in hospital. The Agency also says there is also uncertainty about what will happen when Omicron reaches older age groups because most of those catching it and going into hospital so far have been under the age of 40.

So it's way too early to give Boris a pat of the back for not imposing a lockdown (hell will freeze over first for many people ), and in any case this virus has a habit of twisting around and coming up with new surprises. Where does this leave restrictions? The devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have each introduced more restrictions than England's eight regions (which weirdly are all larger than any of the devolved 'nations').

Staff shortages have reached 30% in some London hospitals and if cases peak and then start to fallback in the next two weeks the NHS will be saved from meltdown, but the UK population may not have garnered sufficient natural community immunity (polite expression for herd immunity) that will protect against Pi, Rho or Sigma—whatever the next 'variant of interest' is called.

Will this ever end?

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)

I see a explosion in tourism coming I dont know when perhaps 2022 it will climb but no where near 2019 People are waiting for the time is right Ferry flights for new operators of the DHC 6 will continue and I am in the the slot waiting for this to happen I love living abroad working where I am needed but I cannot imagine living in Canada right now and getting the Flu and trying to get on with life its over saturated in our country with negitive

I am curious about your remark above about "ferry flights of the DHC-6".

Are you referring to the DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft? If so, you might be amused to know that I am the person who did the redesign and modernization of the DHC-6 when the Series 400 was put back into production. I was responsible for all aspects of flight compartment modernization, including selection and programming of the Honeywell Apex Avionics.

I also am the author of both the Series 300 and Series 400 AFMs, as well as the Honeywell avionics handbook for the Series 400, and the FlightSafety training manuals for the Series 300.

Michael

Me, sitting on the steps of the first Series 400 Twin Otter

Good question! If you listen to the answer of politicians and scientists they will tell you that Covid will be endemic in the end.

But I think the virus doesn`t care what these people think or assume and afaik endemic means a reproduction factor = 1. Therefore we have to note the game factor of variant and mutant which is playing a role too. Also endemic doesn`t mean harmless at the end. What we know and see in some african countries where malaria is endemic since years and still causes many deaths each year.

So the final question is how and when will it end?
Sadly a question which nobody can answer right now...




Anyway,
I wish you all a good, satisfying and peaceful time in these days equal if you celebrate x-mas or not. I wish you all health and I still hope that maybe you and me will run into another when we coincidentally meet sometimes somewhere on the nice planet.

Yo Michael
Looks like you may have missed a bit Merry Xmas!

Interesting bit of analysis Tim, though I think it bodes well to continue to be cautious.

Firstly because the virus is replicating in an exponential manner, so even if it is genuinely less virulent the exponential growth in numbers of cases will easily outstrip the % reduction benefit of seriousness, and the total number of serious cases will increase to the point that hospitals could be swamped.

Secondly because a narrative that Omicron is less virulent suits the UK government, which has consistently tried to ignore the virus and carry on with business as usual, being driven by "the economy" and a desire to achieve "herd immunity" regardless of cost (resulting in the past in both high death rates and more economic damage). So forgive me if I take their pronouncements, based on a relatively small number of cases (compared to the millions analysed for earlier VOC) and issued just before the sensitive Christmas spending rush, with a pinch of salt.

Thirdly, there is no evolutionary pressure on the Coronavirus to become less virulent. Something like MERS or Ebola which kill 70-80% of victims would benefit from becoming less lethal, since anything that kills its host population creates an evolutionary dead end. The SARS CoV-19 virus however only kills on average 1% of those it infects, so there is no need for it to become less virulent. Its strongest weapon is its infectiousness, and the R0 of the Omicron variant seems to be 4 or 5 which is incredibly infectious. While I am no virologist it seems to me that a virus that enter cells so easily is likely to increase viral loads in victims and become more, not less, virulent. I'm happy to be proved wrong on this.

And finally fourthly, the host population has to be considered when comparing virulence with earlier variants. There are a lot more vaccinated folk about now (in the UK anyway - though there are many poor countries with barely a few % done) and it is likely those who are catching Omicron now are either younger unvaccinated folk or older fully-jabbed-up ones, both of which are less likely to experience severe symptoms.

Maybe there's light at the end of tunnel but I think it'll be at least another year before we know if it's an oncoming train or not.

Meaning you could do some ferry flying of new or rebuilt machines for tourist operators I was in Yellowknife doing support Maintenance for Vikings 50th anniversary for the Twin Otter C-GVKI I changed the Main and Nose to Intermediates then the crews took her all over the Arctic and all the way to CFB Alert with Tim Hortons coffee and donuts that were flown from Yellowknife to Resolute Bay by a Summit Air charter a Dornier 228 Wow expensive coffee and donuts The viking team put on a good show and I am happy that they went back to the DeHaviland name

No thank you.

I delivered the first 40 new Series 400 aircraft constructed, flying them from the factory on Vancouver Island to operators on all 6 continents, as well as a few operators who weren't even located on continents (Maldives, Seychelles).

I retired in 2013, and have not flown an aircraft since then. I just occasionally ride my motorcycle.

Michael

You have sharp eyes.

When we put the aircraft back into production in 2008 (production had ceased in 1988), we replaced many non-structural parts that had previously been made of aluminum with identically shaped parts made out of composites.

That little wing root to fuselage fairing was one of the parts that was modernized. The photo was taken during a break in flight testing - engineering staff had removed the original aluminum part and were in the process of fitting the new composite part.

Michael

Like the flu jab, this will probably be something we need to continue to mass vaccinate against.... with the various strains cropping up year after year.... perhaps in time a single isolating element from all strains can be attacked and win the war...... however that is indeed years away....

Its not all bad though.... ( i'm a staff nurse and have worked in a couple of covid settings.... ) I managed to save up and get a Triumph Tiger Rally Pro this year!

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2025 Planning.....

Hello everyone,


I found Dr. John Campbells Youtube Channel very informative. Looks like Omikron could be a "good thing". Only 20% of the people with Omikron in hospital in the UK were admitted for compications with the virus. The number of people in hospital is rising slowly compared to an exponential rise of people tested positive. Probably way more people are infected.
And the good thing is, that Omikron is replacing Delta!



Here in Germany the numbers arre going down, but i can't believe that. Like Omikron did not arrive yet. it seems to me like we are not good in testing, because why shouldn't we have a wave of Omikron when our neigbors have them?



With a bit of luck, we are seeing it now changing it from an pandemic to endemic with Omikron. Fingers crossed.


Cheers
Martin

Yes, omicron seems to be displacing delta... but will recovering from omicron give people immunity to future variants? Some experts think so, but we really won't know for months to come.

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Bruce Clarke - 2020 Yamaha XV250