There is an interesting perspective to question about how long a pandemic will run if you look to the 1889–1890 pandemic called "Asiatic flu" or "Russian flu".

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In 2020, Danish researchers Lone Simonsen and Anders Gorm Pedersen noted that the clinical manifestations of the 1889 pandemic—runny nose, headache, high fever, severe chest inflammation, speeding up old respiratory diseases, and primarily killing elderly people—resembled COVID-19, a disease caused by a coronavirus, more than flu. They calculated that the human coronavirus OC43 had split from bovine coronavirus about 130 years before, approximately coinciding with the pandemic in 1889–1890. The calculation was based on genetic comparisons between bovine coronavirus and different strains of OC43. While their research had not been formally published as of November 2020, a team from the University of Leuven in Belgium performed a similar analysis of OC43, identifying a crossover date in the late 1800s.<<

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E...31890_pandemic


>>However, there is not a scientific consensus that the 1889–1890 outbreak was caused by a coronavirus, with one analysis of the literature suggesting that the evidence for this cause is "weak" and "conjectural<<

Quote from: What we can learn from the dynamics of the 1889 ‘Russian flu’ pandemic for the future trajectory of COVID-19 by Harald Brüssow

Source: https://sfamjournals.onlinelibrary.w...751-7915.13916

What is certain is public knowledge of past major outbreaks is quite sketchy. Those interested in WWI might have heard of Spanish flu, I only came across Russian flu a few weeks ago.

Another that was news to me was the typhus outbreaks in London in the 1860s that killed 40,000 at a time when London had a population of 3 million.

In our neighbourhood is an abandoned graveyard that is being left to nature. It looks rather like a Hammer House of Horror film set with gravestones leaning over at angles under the gloomy trees. I noticed three gravestones of the same design in a line, touching each other and was intrigued as I had seen this in Commonwealth War Graveyards when several soldiers had died in a shellburst and it was impossible to identify which bodyparts belonged to whom.


Three children from the same family who died of typhus in March 1862

Interesting comment from

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https://youtu.be/B2qSrcq-Jz0

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C...misinformation

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Wow so few? Much better record than BBC

So few what? I'm confused.

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Grant Johnson
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Follow link

so few - deaths? Campbell's count is discredited there!

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Grant Johnson
Seek, and ye shall find.
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Inspiring, Informing and Connecting travellers since 1997!
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The question on death is a controversial one. It boils down to "what to count as covid related deaths?" For example when early 2020 the sh!t happened in NYC the excess death was x3 times of official covid-19 death rate. Not all of them were dying from covid-19, some from lack of health care, missed surgeries, anxiety, spike in suicide, etc. But many were dying at home without ever seeing doctor or getting tested. And car accident rate was down because people lost jobs and had nowhere to go.

The other aspect is when actually the pandemic started and how many people had died from it prior to 2020 without ever being diagnosed? Were there any distortions in the way death were counted early on? And if someone to die from leukemia tomorrow but got covid and died today, how to count it?

It is known statistical fact that during famine most of the people who do die have health issues and the death rate in following years sharply declines.. So if you look at annual deaths you would get one picture, but if you look at 5 year average picture will be not the same.

My guess it will take a few more years before we see true picture; more time is needed to perform statistical analysis. And even then it will be argued.

As for John voicing this heretic point of view he is a publicist and educator, his profession is to read scientific articles and explain them in layman terms. You don't have to agree but plz don't kill the messanger if you don't like message. Peace.

You (and anyone else that's interested) might like to listen to the BBC's statistics programme's take on this. Here's the link:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0013r9w

It's the first seven or eight minutes.

He earned a Bachelor of Science in biology, a Master of Science in health science and a Ph.D. in nursing education.

And this kind of education is the reason why you have to look critical to what he says and how he argues. Because he understands more of medicine than the average person and because he has the capability to explain complicated issues in a simple way to these people.

But all these benefits together aren`t a proof that he is absolutely right in what he thinks and understands and in what he says and explains to his viewers.

It`s him who suffered more than once by interdisciplinary science knowledge gaps which ended in false conclusions. And by this way the messenger sadly kills his credibility.

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Well for one he was less wrong than Dr Fauci and we still dealing with his opinions.

You need to take into consideration that it is developing body of knowledge; contradictory sometimes. This is a side effect of scientific method.

And yes if you expect to hear gospel every time he opens mouth John Campbell isn't the right source. Doesn't change the fact that omicron wiped out Delta and we are in endemic stage.

First its much too early to state and there is no scientific evidence given up today for the proof of a start into an endemic stage!

Secondly you are totally wrong with your statement that omicron has wipeout delta.
https://covariants.org/per-country

After Omicron, some scientists foresee ‘a period of quiet’
https://www.science.org/content/arti...e-period-quiet



What kind of consequences do you think has a stage of endemic? It`s absolutely not a solution which will bring back your prepandemic life in a short period of time.

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00155-x



Science hasn`t allready understood fully how the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 works. So how can we control and manage an edemic stage without this?

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: still up in the air
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...4067362102794X

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cyclopathic didn't explain his comment but I took it to mean that Dr Campbell has an excellent record on accuracy compared to the BBC who use unqualified (medically) reporters to prepare medical news stories. Even though my daughter had 20 years in BBC newsgathering I cringe sometimes at how wrong they get stuff.

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I remember watching Dr Campbell's video of 20 January (above) in which the 17,000 Covid-only deaths figure was mentioned and I understood totally what he was saying. I was very interested in the 17,000 without comorbidities figure as this might give an indication why fatalities have been much lower in Morocco than the UK—could this partly be because Moroccans are less overweight and without diabetes?

I didn't think that in any way he was trying to minimise the overall number of fatalities due to deaths with comorbidities. In fact what he says right at the beginning of the video is that it is often thought that the most accurate way to look at deaths is the 127,704 excess deaths above the five-year average, and if you think of that, it would also include deaths through lack of medical treatment for other serious illnesses, as well as suicides.

But the count IS accurate—it was released by the UK's Office for National Statistics in response to a freedom of information request. The problem is that a small minority might have misunderstood what Dr Campbell was trying to put over and the person to blame for the widespread press coverage was MP David Davis who picked up on "pretty interesting" and misunderstood this to mean that 2+2=64.

I also went back and watched Dr Campbell's video about Ivermectin and then tried to find out more information on the subject. It seems the jury may still be out. Five days ago the University of Oxford confirmed it was still running clinical studies on Ivermectin as part of its PRINCIPLE trials however wouldn't comment further until they are ready to report.

The scientific world has moved at a previously unimaginable speed to fight the pandemic with eyebrow-raising shortcuts and their efforts have undoubtedly saved millions of lives, not just through vaccines but also through complementary medicines and treatments. In normal times, scientific papers are only seriously considered when they have gone through formal peer-review and then published in a scientific journal, but in this fast-moving anti-Covid fight, academic preprints have been widely distributed so as to spread knowledge of possible findings as quickly as possible. Dr Campbell's videos have mentioned many of these with appropriate warnings that they haven't been peer reviewed.

Above all, we have to thank the Internet for providing the basis for the fast knowledge interchange without which we would probably still be without vaccines and medicines. I've linked an article I wrote over 20 years ago quoting heavily from Dr Vanavar Bush's 1945 paper for Atlantic Monthly that highlighted the problems scientists faced with data sharing in World War II.

Attached Files

as we may think (article).pdf (82.0 KB, 97 views)

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)

I wrote the extract below on a Moroccan forum at the end of December, addressing the fact that new case statistics in Morocco were unlikely to be reliable with the onset of Omicron.
Two weeks ago I wrote here,
Although the UK government statistics are that new case numbers are down to 82,000 and still declining, the evidence from Zoe is that new UK case numbers are in fact rising with over 200,000 per day and over 2.4 million people currently infected. Zoe's Professor Tim Spector was on TV yesterday saying that the 'R' number is still over 1. Omicron BA.2 is said to be even more transmissible than BA.1 so this may remain at over 1 for some time.



I believe the disparity between government figures falling and Zoe figures rising is because new cases are now only getting reported to the government if they are serious enough to need intervention. In the last few weeks, eight people in my immediate nine-person extended family of two daughters, husbands and children have contracted Covid and tested positive on LFTs. Only one was reported to the government.

However, UK ventilation figures are encouraging. In early November there were over 1,000 (presumably Delta) patients in mechanical ventilation beds in the UK. By early January despite dramatically rising case numbers, this number had fallen to 900. It has since steadily subsided and now stands at 478.

The seven-day rolling average of UK deaths peaked on 16 January at 290 and has since fallen back slightly to 275. Whilst all fatalities are regrettable, this should be compared to January 2021 peak of 1,248 at a time when infection rates were probably less than half of today which implies that Omicron combined with vaccines (though a disproportionate number of those dying are unvaccinated) results in a death rate of less than ten per cent of the Alpha wave.

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)