Speaking for Norway... It seems like two years of travel restrictions has made every 50+ something (who got their licence in their early twenties, and who has not ridden since) - run out and buy the most powerful bike they can afford - only to be scraped off the road within the hour after having received the keys. And there is a record number of new licence holders as well. The news has a lock on it, with new stories allmost every day. First responders I have spoken to tells me it is an abnormal ammount of accidents and that their impression is that there has been a growth in number of inexperienced riders being the main cause for the increase in accidents. Then again, the numbers have increased for cars as well.

I've seen more idiodic riding this season than probably the last ten years combined... and a bunch of senseless accidents (the last one only two days ago - when a noob female rider was choppered to the hospital after having slid underneath the guard rail after a classic left turn miss).

What's your impression where you are at (excluding places like Vietnam where things possibly can't become more crazy)?

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Good question. I just did a quick google to see if I could find any recent stats in British Columbia but I could not. I did find that there are an average of about 50 deaths per year in BC.

Just a personal observation, but I see about the same number of riders now as in previous years, and I haven't noticed any change in ridership recently. As far as I can observe there hasn't been a significant change in accidents. I could easily be wrong!

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Bruce Clarke - 2020 Yamaha XV250

I'm sceptical to the narrative that Norwegian motorcycle accident numbers are "skyrocketing". The numbers are fairly small (around 20 killed per year), and as such it is hard to statistically understand the reason if any, or to draw conclusions from a year-to-year variation.

There are some long term trends, and they are showing the opposite. Here are the number of people killed on motorcycles, the two colours are men and women respectively.



This June has been particularly bad, with 7 killed. The question is whether this is an anomaly (and as such is of no further consequence) or if it is a trend. We can look at the numbers for June from 2012 onwards:



So, even if this June is the highest for the period, it is not "skyrocketing". Rather, it seems that it is within the expected variation for the numbers.

However, it is extremely important to look at how people die, even if we don't accept that the numbers are increasing. Generally, motorcycling (in Norway) is around 6.7 times more likely to lead to a fatality per person-kilometer driven than cars. Those numbers aren't as available as we break down on demographic variables, which makes further analysis more difficult.

However, it is clear that middle-age plus people are more likely to die while riding motorcycles than younger people. I am unsure if this is because they are worse riders, or because they're simply riding more. It seems to me that most people I meet on two wheels are past family raising age, and as such it would make sense if they were also more likely to have fatal accidents.

I looked at the number of killed motorcyclists by age, and how the development from the period 2000-2010 compared to 2011-2021:



This shows significant decrease for the demographics below 45, and significant increase for those above. I have been unable to find good numbers on the development in the demographics for riders, but all evidence I have is that the trend is that older riders ride longer trips on heavier bikes. That would go a long way to explain why the 30-year old going off the road on his litre bike is replaced by the 50 year old on his GS in the statistics.

Through conversations with the researchers in this area, I've learned that the most deadly accident type is running out of road in left hand turns on country roads. Speed is not seen as the main contributing factor, and it seems that the main problem is people freezing up somewhere in the curve. Missing a right hand turn just gets you into the wrong lane, which is fine unless there's traffic coming the other way, while left hand turns just have the barrier and trees.

This problem can only be mitigated through training, and in my opinion, more training is the only relevant response to the trend of more older riders being on the road, and therefore at risk of death or serious injuries. Understanding that a motorcycle can handle way sharper turns than most of us are prepared to go into can give the confidence to look through the turn and push harder on the handlebars, rather than panicking and hitting the breaks.

So whenever I read about motorcycling accidents, I try to figure out what kind of accident it was, to understand if they are contributing to the trend. In June, one accident was a guy apparently falling off his bike (which continued for 900 meters down the road), one kid losing control while doing a wheelie in traffic, hitting a car in his own lane and getting pushed into the opposing lane where he had an unfortunate run-in with another car, and one guy losing control of his bike on a straight. Those are the three that I've managed to find the reason for among the seven in June, and none of those are the kind of accident that, on average, kills most of us. So, I'm not that worried.

We can assume that there are 200,000 active motorcyclists in Norway, and 20 deaths means around 10 per 100,000. That's a lower risk than the risk of being killed by a gun in all but 9 states in the US, and 1/15 of the chance of being killed by cancer.

Summary: I'm not that worried, but I'm also not being stupid on the road.

Put in a wider context, the number of road fatalities in the UK averages out at just under 4/day across the year. In contrast the death rate from covid over the last year has averaged about 100/day. Guess where the government is targeting its spending and ever more restrictions on freedom.

Don't see any rise of motorcycle accidents and that's strange though because I do see big increase of people stupidity all over world. That easily translates to riding skills and wisdom.

As for the restriction, what restrictions? didn't see any for motorcyclists.
International travel maybe but local riding? didn't see any restriction,
nor that I would comply anyway. Been riding as usual, more off-road maybe.

There's a lot less reckless motorbike riding here since the price of petrol went up!

Same number and size of bikes, same quality of riding (while wearing safety flip-flops, lol), just less people *racing* around

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Hmm, can't say in the UK I've noticed either any more motorcycle accidents myself, or read anything about more of them happening. Far be it for me to suggest it's a journalist with a bee in his / her bonnet, but often these things come to public notice because someone is campaigning about a issue that's important to them personally.

The number of deaths on UK roads is statistically insignificant. If it was an industrial process you would stop monitoring it.

The problem is a road safety lobby that is now an army that needs to keep the war going or face being sent home to be peasants again. The politicians love a nice safe enemy like the speeding motorist instead of having to tell the fat people to eat fewer pies or whatever. There is also a political movement that hates the lack of control personal vehicles represented. There is no point having 100% tax rates and universal incomes so they have control when the proles can just drive away. Forget internal passports and army check points, the modern dictator just stops your bicycle charging where it isn't authorised to.

Andy

The numbers are lower because there's been a concerted effort over multiple decades to lower them. And with more effort they'll get lower still. This isn't a bad thing.

Making roads safer and driving slower doesn't curtail freedoms, if anything it increases them - because people can be more free to use roads how they like outside of cars. Being safe to go about on foot, bike, play football in the street, etc, is freedom.

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If I had to guess I'd have said the lower numbers are down to more crash resistant features in cars and Max Power / Space Cadet bike riders getting older and slower. Stuff like bed blocking speed limits and cameras everywhere have probably some part to play but not as much as the politicians would have you believe.

I do spend a lot of time out on foot (running) on streets / roads and the number of *sshole drivers / warp factor 10 riders doesn't seem to have gone down that much - particularly at weekends. Everyone knows where the fixed cameras are and bikes in particular are as happy as ever to overtake around blind bends and cruise at twice the speed limit. The M3 BMW driver who 'exceeded his ability' when trying an 'outa my way, peasant' overtake just down the road from here and put his car not only through a garden wall but through the living room wall of the house behind it was saved by BMW's forethought in making their cars resistant to brick avalanches. A few car generations back he wouldn't have been so lucky.

I would like to think, that most people who use this site are " adventure " riders. and ride there bikes at a safe speed, having said that some of the bigger
type bikes ( no names ) seam to be ridden far to fast ! ............ and as for sports bikes .... well we have all seen some of the danger (some ) of them cause ! I seldom ride the weekends for that reason !
Just my observations after 35+ years in the saddle

Nope, you can't get lower than zero. They are flogging a dead horse. All the millions spent now only make the roads less efficient and CONsultants, lobbyists and other people with non-productive employment richer.

If you believe the propaganda, at what point will you actually accept the war is over? Will you still count heart attacks on busses as road deaths and lower the speed limit to zero? How about pedestrians who walk under ladders and get hit by falling masonry?

Andy

I have noticed a definite increase in aggressive (or maybe I mean forceful and more selfish) driving since the UK came out of the last lockdown. Higher speeds on backroads and less anticipation of hazards (for example not slowing down at visibility restricted pinch points) Tin tops and bikes both, it's as if people have forgotten how to drive, or have overconfidence in their own and their machine's abilities to get them out of trouble.

A friend in W Scotland also tells me the number of bikes sliding under cars is definitely increasing, but who is to blame is unclear.

Post-covid recklessness?

@Ridingviking - first off, great stats! Also, I agree with most of the things you say.

There was a news broadcast just a few days ago focusing on the increase in motorycle accidents i Norway so far this season. The largest motorcycle organisation in Norway commented, as well as riding educators and people with great experience who had been in accidents - they were all in unison when they said that populistic efforts such as more police presence, speed traps, etc, etc, would not help. They all pointed towards more training, and in particular on the more common accident types. They also wanted more tracks for motorcyclists to practice on.

In the capital Oslo for instance, there is only one track, and it is not open to the public. Go one town west, and there is another track (Slependen, Bærum) - a really poor one, which is also not open to the public, and only limited availability with a school. Another two towns west (Drammen), there is a decent track open to the public outside business hours (but not a great one). None of the tracks open up for anything but the bare essentials - because they are so small. There are very few parking lots (if any) where one can practice. As a consequence, schools spend very limited amount of time on track. Riders who want to refresh their skills on their own, well they are out of luck.

Now, in Norway where seasons are short and the weather is poor, and the median used ten yer old motorcycle on the market has traveled an average of 2.000 kms/year only (if I remember correctly). With this being the median, a lot of bikes travel a lot less. It should therefor be no surprise that there are a lot of inexperienced riders out there to begin with. Now, add to that a person in their mid life crisis, who wasn't that experienced when he last time rode some 20+ years ago - now has the money to buy the biggest most powerful bike out there, and then have the time to go out on a long trip with no means to practice even if they wanted to (unless they go way out of their way). Add to that a lack of vacationing options due to covid, and tons and tons of these midlife inexperienced dudes rushing out to dust off their rusty old bike or buy a monster of a bike to go on a great adventure... Also, as far as I know, there has been a surge in number of people getting their license during covid. There should be no surprise if the number of accidents go way up this season. It should be no surprise either if government hits us with some new stupid populistic solutions - like bigger fines, more police, etc.

50% of all accidents involve alcohol (USA, not Norway). 50% of all accidents is the rider riding off the road (with a vast majority being left hand turns). 50% of crashes with cars involve an oncoming car at an intersection turns left to cross the motorcyclist's lane. Other common accidents are bikers going down in an emergency braking situation trying to avoid rear ending or t-boning a car, or being rear ended from themselves braking too fast (yet many fail to adapt distance/space, speed, acceleration and breaking to the situation - I see this every day). Very few collisions are actually due to head on collisions. Also ABS reduces number of accidents by 1/3 to 1/4 (depending on which studies you look at). The majority of injuries are to feet and hands, in that order - yet boots is the most skimped on equipment by riders. Evidently a lot can be achieved through formal training, informal practice and public awareness.

I wish that there were far more amd far better tracks available. I also wish more effort was put into motivating riders to use them - i.e. to practice their emergency breaking, emergency obstacle avoidance and fast turns, and all the other stuff they had to go through on their exam so many yars ago. I also wish insurance companies incentivise customers to undertake formal training with some regularity. The last accident I saw I am utterly certain was a cause of the rider freezing up in a left hand turn after having entered it wrong - and at a low speed even. I bet that same Norwegian rider would have zero problems handling a car in that very same turn - on black ice on a pitch black night in dead of winter. Practice, practice, practice!!!

I make an effort to start every season with some training (formal and/or informal) - even if I have ridden more or less uninterrupted since I was in my teens (including many snow seasons), and started out as a child, and having ridden 100s of thousands of kilometers (now 48 yrs old). Every year I see some middle aged dude swing by the circuit on his big 1200 cc something, something - to "refresh" his skills. His time spendt there is usually extremely short (ten minutes tops) - as his "expert level" is put to shame by some 15 year old girl, 4 hours in, working on getting her 125cc licence. Last year I spendt maybe 20-30 hours on that track, training someone who was to get their licence (the typical is 4-8 hours for a new licence holder). During all the dosens of times I have been there over the years, I have rarely seen licensed riders go to refresh their skills - even though the number of really poor riders that have held a licence for a very long time vastly outnumber the ones that are working on getting their licence. I have seen several riders on that track, who has held their licence for many years - that are outright dangerous and who ought to have spendt hours and not minutes on that track before leaving - but instead makes only a handful of erratic and uncontrolled passes before gunning it out of there with full "might".

I am perplexed that also the insurance industry doesn't do more. Riders who has not had a bike insured for a very long time and at the same time cannot provide any evidence of having maintained skills (i.e. having had a training course, rented a bike or had access to a bike in one's household, or the likes) - should they be able to retain their entire insurance bonus simply because they have owned a car throughout this period? Also, if you just got your licence, but you have owned a car for many years - should your starting bonus on the bike be the same as with you car?

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The largest contributor is road design, funnily enough - junction approach angles, rumble strips, barriers that deflect vehicles, etc.

Safety of cars has improved a huge amount, but most effort is put into collision avoidance now (ADAS and, again, road design) because there's limits to how much damage a car can take without injuring it's contents, regardless of how it's designed.

Except it's not zero. There's room for improvement. And keeping it low requires effort too - education and training, construction standards, etc etc.

In other news, road systems have got far more efficient and average travelling speeds have gone up - the roads of the '80s couldn't have coped with the quantity of traffic there is today.

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