Stephen Kinnock MP for Aberavon (location of the TATA Steel Mills, killed off by the EU) is an archetypal Europhile MP, the type who will thrive here should we remain.

I was going to write a short piece on how the entire Kinnock family has deeply enriched themselves from having the snouts in the EU trough but it even made me just walk away in despair. There is just too much of it, you could write a book. Simply google "kinnock family eu earnings".

It's just got to stop.

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At the moment Germany appears to have massive power in the EU and the balancing forces should be France and the UK. But France currently tends to act in tandem with Germany.

The EU as a block of 28 countries counts as the world's second largest economy by GDP, but Germany (4th), the UK (5th) and France (6th) make up more than half of the total.

The remaining 25 countries are relatively minor economies with Spain next largest at 14th (less than half the GDP of France), then Netherlands at 17th, Sweden at 23rd. Even Poland is bigger than Belgium.

Should the UK exit, Germany's percentage of the rump EU GDP rises from today's 20% to 25% further increasing the perception of power. Only France is an economic challenge (if challenge is a viable word with Holland running the economy). With argumentative Britain out of the room, Germany will have even more freedom to meld the EU in the direction it wants.

Could a rump EU hold together? Would other countries (Netherlands?) be tempted to follow the UK's lead?

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)

In diplomatic historical terms what you quite rightly point in this paragraph is an historical anomaly. Historically, the UK always managed to incite a balance of power between the Germanic and the Francs. Even, the UK has never been shy on putting its weight behind the weakest of the two with the objective of restoring the balance of power in the continent whenever circumstances warranted such action.

It's not as if France is willingly on the side of Germany. France simply doesn't have an alternative right now and Hollande is way too blind to see any other way. Between the rock of Germany and the hard place of ideology, Hollande, like Captain Renault, simply blows with the wind. And the prevailing wind right now happens to come from Berlin. This concubinary relation won't last forever but it's where we are now. What does this mean to the UK? It means that the balance of power in the continent is now much harder to achieve than in the past. But, then again, Brexit may quite well be the straw breaking the camel's back and things revert back to their ancestral course.


It might quite well be the real and undeniable end for the EU.


Is there still an EU other than on paper?

The Netherlands? From all countries why did you mention them? Given their affinity with Germany I'd see them as the least probable country to try an exit from the EU. In any event, in case of a Brexit, I see most likely a continued erosion of the EU albeit at a faster pace than what has been happening until now followed by an outright implosion rather than other individual countries following the UK to the exit. But if I had to speculate on this last scenario I'd say that Denmark was the strongest candidate for an exit. The Danexit.

Because of the 'tegen' (against) majorities in both the 2005 and the 2016 referendums.

Denmark would have been my second choice, especially as they never embraced the euro.

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)

There is a stronger anti-EU feeling in the Netherlands that elsewhere. My bet for following the UK out would be Denmark who truely do want freedom from German rule on principle and Finland who also have a massive neighbour, but one that is best dealt with in the Swiss manner of not winding them up yet looking vicious enough not to bother with.

This isn't 1916 or 1816 though, the next Bismark will be working at the EU commerce comission sub-comittee on green house gas hot air not building an army. Refusing to adopt the new standard of cucumber curvature and having your quota of bacon imports cut isn't something to really have nightmares about (unless you have to read the paperwork and there is a test at the end)

Imagine how popular Frau Merkel will be if the EU has to ban Lego AND Scotch as part of the break up.

Andy

It's been well noted & documented that the UK's EU referendum is being closely monitored, and the result even more so.

IMO & unfortunately we'll highly likely to remain in & the EU dictatorship will implode even further, whilst other nations may or may not have their own EU referendum.

It's disappointing to see lack of ambition and unprofessional scaremongering on a daily basis here in the UK.

It is reported that Greece has an entry in the 2016 Eurovision song contest: Utopian Land.
(Incidentally Romania is thrown out of the song contest this year for non payment of the due fees to the relevant European authority).


Considering the tentative agreement that the UK PM developed with the EU a few months ago, it seems that the country would continue to remain on the periphery of the European project when this referendum is lost by the Brexit camp; neither fully in nor fully out – the worst of both worlds, marginalised while mainland Europe continues to integrate to develop the utopia.
This will not be satisfactory to the modern day political classes, even in the medium term and definitely not in the long term and it won't satisfy those politicians who speak up for an integrated union of the current European nations.


Once the Brexit supporters have lost the referendum, it will be necessary to move toward ever closer union in order to seal the referendum result and finish once and for all the argument about the direction in which both the UK and the EU are going.
This is also necessary to nail the concept that a nation can actually leave the EU. To the politicians it would be unthinkable to have the prospect of yet another referendum, 10-20-30 years (say) into the future.


To achieve this it will be necessary to complete certain actions, step by step, convincing the population via a number of means, such as establishing UK governments of national unity, drawn from and staffed by those who are committed “Europeans” while ostracising those who have argued otherwise (politics in the UK are changing greatly at present in any case):-
*The Euro to become the national currency of the UK.
*Following currency union, common rules on taxation across the new Empire.
*Integration of UK national laws with European law.
*Resolution of the unwritten constitution of the UK, so that it becomes fully integrated with a commonly developed mainland-of-Europe written constitution; this will require that the UK Royal family steps down from their current role in the UK establishment, along with any other residual monarchies in places such as the Netherlands.
*Concurrently, the Church of England would become dis-established and a proportion of premises in the UK should be given over to the new incoming and growing religions, such as Islam and the Catholic immigrants from mainland Europe; this would solve any issues concerning the upkeep of the fabric of those ancient buildings.
*A common foreign policy for Europe can be developed concurrently which will lead to the establishment of standing armed forces with an oath of allegiance to the European authorities and a common flag will be but a detail. Such an oath will be based upon secular principles which will have to be the new across-Europe “religion”.
*Naturally, everyone will be part of the Shengen agreement, national parliaments will act much as the current UK local authorities and lower level authorities can amalgamate as necessary or be dissolved if they prove to be redundant; for instance via the use of single elected mayors dealing with each of the regions.
European federal police, taxation, drug enforcement and similar cross-Europe authorities will be established as a matter of course.
*Current national overseas territories will come under new methods of providing them with foreign and defence policy, this applying to all of those territories currently covered by the UK, France, the Netherlands etc: the purpose of this will be to give the new United States of Europe (USE) access to overseas real estate as a means of establishing itself on the world stage, especially relevant to the new European navy and air force. The USE will be well placed to take on a supra-national role in the world.
*It may be possible for individual regions of the new Europe to participate in international sport (as GB perhaps in the case of this island), at least for some time, but there will also be an aim for the new country of the USE to be the primary “unit” for such as the Olympics.


There is no specific logic to the current location of the centre of this new empire being in Belgium, and it may be that a new capital will be built, perhaps on the banks of the Rhine, or the Danube for instance; somewhere more central certainly and a brand new build, a la Canberra or Brasilia.


Immigration will be a non-issue: the oft-used argument that the best levels of pay and perks have to be paid in order to attract the very best of available international talent will trickle down to all levels of social strata and economic activity.
Europe will have the very best of the nurses, dentists, soldiers, fruit pickers, street cleaners, day labourers and all other manner of trades and professions to continue commercial activity and economic growth.


That about covers it; the rest is just detail.
What's not to like?

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Dave

^
All the more reason to vote to Leave the EU

Wayne

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The Balkans
https://new.horizonsunlimited.com/poi_entity/8417

How "Project Fear" is funded:

Christine Lagarde is making yet another doom-mongering ‘major intervention’ at 10am, with that €400 million fraud trial still looming over her. The IMF chief will again warn against Brexit during a meeting with Osborne at the Treasury, a geo-political courtesy return favour to the Chancellor, who campaigned hard for her to get the job. Like pretty much every group Remain have wheeled out, the IMF has received funding from the European Commission. Pro-Remain groups which have made referendum interventions have received €160 million from the Commission in the last nine years:


courtesy Guido Fawkes

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I thought Brexit was "Project Fear". Fear of greater federalism, fear of losing our cultural identity, fear of worsening immigration, fear of being drawn into the Euro, fear of having European laws thrust upon us, fear of losing the Royal family, fear of EU dictatorship ...

Just saying.

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Paul "Every county of England, every country of Europe and every (part of every inhabited) continent of the Earth" 94% done! What's left? Central America, East, Central and West Africa, Australia & New Zealand

I think it's going to be close but have the feeling that whilst the depth of opinion is stronger with Brexit, there's more in favour of Remain. A poll on another site. Small representative size, admittedly.

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Paul "Every county of England, every country of Europe and every (part of every inhabited) continent of the Earth" 94% done! What's left? Central America, East, Central and West Africa, Australia & New Zealand

"Death, War, meet Brexit"

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Dave

Tory MEP cracks up live on air...




"It's not fair. We've cheated, lied, bullied and faked, just as Dave told us to do, and we're still being asked these bloody awkward questions and people still want to leave. This isn't the way Dave said it would be and I'm not playing any more!"

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https://youtu.be/MGeDX-6DINM


clipped from "BREXIT THE MOVIE" full version of which can be viewed here
https://youtu.be/UTMxfAkxfQ0

or on VIMEO



PS - how can I put up youtube clips oh here - the tags don't work

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Watched the full version, made my blood boil at some points....all the more reason to vote Leave

Wayne

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The Balkans
https://new.horizonsunlimited.com/poi_entity/8417