The statistics over the last few months have been that about 1 in ten of all new cases end up in hospital, and about one in three of those die. A sobering fact.

I wanted to see whether it was possible to measure the effect of the vaccine, so I took the 7-day rolling averages (smoothed) data for new cases, hospital admissions and deaths and plotted them. This didn't help much as the figures were so disparate, so I divided all the case figures by 21 and all the admissions by 2.5. In this way the start position of cases and admissions at the beginning of February was roughly level with the 1,150 deaths per day.

What you can see from the chart is that the blue cases line has reduced nicely due to a mix of lockdown and vaccinations, but the orange admissions line has reduced even more, and the grey deaths line more again. By measuring the difference between the blue (258) and grey (74) lines at the 25 March one might propose that the vaccine is currently saving 184 lives per day, or to put it another way, over 70% of deaths are being prevented.

It takes 2-3 weeks for the vaccine to become really effective and the effect of the vaccine on death rates will increase dramatically over the next couple of months as increasing numbers of the population are vaccinated.

I will admit this chart is REALLY crude as what I should have done is to factor in the typically ten day gap between reported new cases and admissions, and then the typically twenty days to death. But it was enough to satisfy my curiosity about the effectiveness of the vaccine.

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"For sheer delight there is nothing like altitude; it gives one the thrill of adventure
and enlarges the world in which you live," Irving Mather (1892-1966)