I'm kicking myself that I kept putting off a trip to ride across central Asia and Russia.

Most Eastern overland routes require travelling through Russia. And those that don't are also closed to travelling Brits on bikes (Iran, China etc)

What's the chance of any kind of civility between the U.K and Russia in the next ten years ?

When this is our current situation. It's all so gloomy.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-06-30/

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Did some trips.
Rode some bikes.
Fix them for a living.
Can't say anymore.

10 years is a long time. In the next 5 years I would say to possibility is very low, since Putin will still be alive.

In the next 10 years I give it a 60% chance. I think we will see a change in leadership in Russia, then the country will be very unstable, and the westerners will be allowed to enter.

Just a pure guess...

Five years sounds like a long time to me. And then it will be a land of chaos.

Not good

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Did some trips.
Rode some bikes.
Fix them for a living.
Can't say anymore.

We're all wired neurologically to favor catastrophizing in response to almost anything--see "Chicken Little," among others. That's because avoidance of threats (the classic saber-toothed tiger or poisonous berries) was more important in evolutionary terms than attraction to stuff that looked or felt nice (a pretty sunset or comfortable motorbike seat).

As far as I can tell, the world is not coming to an end, and probably much will be different ten years from now. Within my short lifespan, China has opened and then temporarily closed again, as have other places you could name, while vast areas once off-limits have become accessible and remain so--Mozambique, say, or Angola, the former Yugoslavia (depending on where your timeline starts), most of SE Asia. On the other hand, most of us probably missed out on the years during which the trans-Sahara routes through Algeria, Nigeria and Mali were practical, and I doubt they're coming back anytime soon. A few may have done the full overland route through Afghanistan et al during the seventies, but anyone who missed that chance may never get a second chance. I--or you--could go on and on.

In ten years we might look back at a brief interlude during which we could travel freely in Russia, or we might see the reverse--a period of upheaval which interrupted a long stretch of great freedoms for those of us favored by accidents of birth. That's you and I, in case it's not clear.

I'd guess travel through Russia will again be possible within your ten year window, though whether it gets easier or more difficult than it was a couple of years back is an open question. I'm pretty certain alternatives will open (and close) periodically, even for people with US and UK passports. And none of us had any realistic hope of going everywhere and doing everything regardless of geopolitics and surprise pandemics.

The above represents a bit of my current attempt to come to grips with the approaching end of my ability to travel rough and adventurously--age-related, mainly. If you think you're catching a faint whiff of defensive self-justification....well....you're right.

Mark

Nice summary. And as you said - the list, possibilities and possible scenarios could be extended indefinitely.

@*Touring Ted* If you want to visit central Asia it will probably become accessible again later this year. I've heard news that Turkmenistan allegedly will start allowing transit again and maybe Azerbaijan will open up again in September as announced.

As for Russia - it seems that you could still visit now, if you wanted? I met a USA passport holder who entered Russia from Georgia just last week and if I interprete his Instagram correctly he's having a good time riding to Vladivostok right now.

Cheers,
Benjamin

Are Brits specifically banned from entering Russia?

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.

I postponed few times my dream travel to Magadan and Mongolia and now I have it i strongly believe though travel through Russia will be possible soon. Some sources state Putin is dead or very sick so many can change if that's true.

For now I will try to travel to ?Stans countries.

The only real answer is "it depends". There are people travelling Russia at the moment (not many, but some...) and they report no trouble with locals or borders. I am tempted to point out that people are people, and you make your own friends and enemies wherever you go. Want an example? Iran, the country our government loves to hate, where you as a traveller can receive the warmest welcome in the world.

My personal view is Putin's war will be over, or nearly so, by the end of this year. There is growing weariness in the west to pour billions into a campaign to hurt Russia, and still see Russia making advances. I don't believe he wants the whole country, just Donbass and Crimea, as they have always said. Militarily speaking, that's achievable. As the campaign stretches on we will be into autumn, gas prices will skyrocket and there will be the real risk of Russia cutting off supplies altogether. Of course the politicians will still be warm but they may feel the wrath of the ordinary people, freezing in their houses and with no electricity to light their workplaces.

I am pencilling in "Silk and Siberia" for next year, across Siberia to Magadan and back via the Silk Road. We'll see.

On the other hand NATO, America's tame dog, may decide to escalate matters catastrophically, and then I don't think many of us will be travelling anywhere much.

BTW when USA invaded Iraq, Afghanistan and many other countries somehow nobody banned American companies, goods and you could travel freely...
Nobody also put restrictions on American citizens.

Look at the timing from the fall of the Berlin wall, through the Yeltsin years up to Putin getting nostalgic for his KGB years and you can well imagine a situation in 5 years wherever everyone is welcome but you might not want to go. I was sent to Leningrad/St. Peterburg in the 90's and if you had dollars the welcome was enthusiastic, especially from gangsters and their employees.

There is no more drive from the big economies in the world to do the right thing and end the corruption-authoritarianism cycle Russia has been in since 1914 than there was in 1990, so I think the timing will be similar.

If you want another example look at Afghanistan, when it's in a 19th Century phase it's open if not for the feint hearted, when they decide it was nicer in the 12th Century its not. They cycle there is what, 10-15 years?

Andy

One good news is Bałorus removes visa requirements for Poland so I have one step closer to Mongolia Now is Russia turn.

If you think not being able to ride your motorcycle in Russia is 'gloomy', just imagine what it's like for Ukrainians.

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Bruce Clarke - 2020 Yamaha XV250

I don't think there is any doubt in anyone's mind how awful the situation is for Ukrainians. Or indeed anyone who faces the sharp side of any conflict.

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Did some trips.
Rode some bikes.
Fix them for a living.
Can't say anymore.

Apologies if my comment was harsh....

About five years ago, one of my coworkers and I were complaining at length about some annoying changes in our workplace. After a long pause, he then said flippantly, "Oh well, it could be a lot worse - at least we're not in a war zone!"

I've caught myself thinking it a lot lately; whenever something doesn't go to my liking, I stop and remind myself that my life could be far, far worse than it is. I have it pretty easy compared to most of the people in this world.

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Bruce Clarke - 2020 Yamaha XV250

Isn`t it generally a luxury problem to complain about not beeing able to travel through a certain country?

When I read this the thread, I remembered this website:

https://www.passportindex.org/?

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