that can provide some real life information on the current situation and how people feel it might turn into? The news in Australia is saying that it could excalate out of the eastern provinces and spread over the entire country.

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Tacos Tyring Travels.com

I´ve been in Bolivia (La Paz) since Friday 12/09, and my brother for about 1 month, and he is now in Sucre. This is my 3rd time in Bolivia, with the previous about 6 weeks in June/July, and my bro about 3 weeks in July, and we´ve both been pretty much everywhere. Great country for moto riding! Normally they allow motorcycles to past roadblocks, but my brother tried to get from Cochabamba to Santa Cruz but couldn´t.

Bolivia has always had an above average chance of civil war, since there is a considerable economic and cultural difference between people in the altiplano/western highlands, and the eastern/northern lowland. I think this quote and the following breakdown of demographics make a good summary Bolivia's Historic Moment: CPJ Special Report :
"The conflict reflects growing ethnic and class tensions in Bolivian society. Based in the country’s western highlands, the predominantly Quechua- and Aymara-speaking indigenous population is largely impoverished and rural, but with Morales’ election in 2005 they have become politically ascendant. Economic power is concentrated in the lowland city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra , which is dominated by a European-descended, Spanish-speaking elite."

Bolivia: - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Bolivia's ethnic distribution is estimated to be 30% Quechua-speaking and 25% Aymara-speaking Amerindians. The largest of the approximately three-dozen native groups are the Quechuas (2.5 million), Aymaras (2 million), then Chiquitano (180,000), and Guaraní (125,000). So the full Amerindian population is at 55% and the remaining 30% is Mestizo (mixed Amerindian and European) and around 15% are Whites."

Most would agee that conflict will easily spread throughout the lowlands, which encompasses the 5 of 9 Districts who all voted to be autonomous from the National government following Morales proposed constitutional changes, since the changes are much to their disadvantage. The main goals as i see them are for a larger share of profits from mining companies, the majority of which are natural gas companies, to benefit the poorer western highlands. And the second is for land redistrubition from landowners of large properties to be spread more as smaller properties benefiting/owned by the Amerindian minority. I have not found a good article on the proposed land redistrubition, but according to landowners i have spokent to it will enable the government to buy land at USD$10 per hectare. Which is cheap even at Bolivian real estate values, and IMO implies that it is only possible with military force. Or military force comibned with a momentum of the poor farm worker majority to take land from the land owning minority. And the only country i can think of that did anything similar in recent times is Zimbabwe, and we all know how quick Uncle Bob f%cked a good country. There is expectations that conflict could easily spread to Cochabamba and Sucre considering in the past there has been protests/conflicts against political or economic power loss to the highlands. A friend of 6yrs in Sucre said that most of the city wanted to wait until after they celebrate the Virigin´s Anniversary before they started any protests, and possible destruction of government buildings and maybe killing each other. War-activities scheduled on the cultural agenda?!

But i think you´re and most people´s question is more would there be conflicts or even civil war in the highlands?

I have been asking people in La Paz their opinon on this, and most say not. But if you ask any of the Mestizos, or especially those in the White category, then many of them are nervous and think possibly so. For example, i have a blonde hair friend that lives in the wealthy part of the city, Zona Sur, and they are already considering that they will move permanently to Chile. And she knows that many families, or at least the woman and children, from Santa Cruz have flown to Miami until things calm down. Their fear in La Paz is that people from the slum city of neighbouring El Alto would love an excuse to damage property or even attack people from the wealthy areas of La Paz, as they percieve the wealthier (and usually of Euro descent) people as those who have taken their land or money. Whatever side of the argument you are on that one, spite or benefiting the ecomony, you have to remember that the standard of education isn´t exactly high in Bolivia, especially for the poor. IMO, Evo Morales has the educational standard of a 10yo, and he´s the president! But of course with extreme poverty there is always more reason to fight to a more extreme extent.

So it all depends on how events unfold, or more how they are percieved to unfold. Usually this depends upon the media, but Morales makes the media out to be liars, so would his supporters listen to the media or Morales?

I think civil war or racial based conflicts would extend to the western highlnds if there was an event where Mestizo/white Bolivians did, or were percieved to have, killed many Amerindians, then there could be a revolt by the Amerindians in the highlands against anyone with pale skin etc. And since the Mestizos/whites are generaly the wealthier factory/land owners even in the highlands, there is an extra motivation for trying to bring that person down. Like wanting to kill your boss, which i´m sure is not a feeling confined only to Bolivia!

I´ve probably written enough of a reply with opinions included. I can add that there are protests to support Morales most days in La Paz, but it doesn´t seem to change anyones mood since there this country is surely the protest capital of the world. I stayed 3 weeks in Sucre and every single day there was at least one protest or celebration marching through the streets, and it was difficult to tell which it was, unless you read the signs or they style of dancing!

I´ll stay in Bolivia until i´ve sold my bike, so i can let you know things seem to be panning out from here. (I´ll be in La Paz, Cochabamba or Sucre. Santa Cruz if road blocks finish)

Bolivia is the poorest country in the Americas, but fortunatly one of the wealthiest in natural resources. Let´s hope they can improve their standard of living without a civil war...

Simon,

Good to see you amde it to Bolivia. Hope you can get to St Cruz to sell the bike, but great unrest is probably not the best time for people to be making large purchases....

Cheers,

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http://www.aroundtheblockmotoadventures.com/
'We build the bike (in Peru) for your Epic Ride of South America.'

Dear Simon D: I desagree: - Is not Haiti the poorest ? But I agree: "one of the wealthiest in natural resources"

Santiago