COVID-19 - Morocco Master Thread

[Tim Cullis]

As far as Moroccans returning for summer holidays are concerned, a minister with responsibility for Moroccans living abroad reported 13 days ago that fleet arrangements are ready for Operation Maharba (which normally runs early June through to early September) but no decision reached due to concern about the epidemiological situation.

In normal years most of the transit traffic is via Spain however the relationship with Spain has been edgy for the last 15 months and in recent weeks has deteriorated even more. The minister implied there could instead be an exceptional transit operation per last year in which 45,000 Moroccans were allowed access via ferries from France and Italy, rather than the normal three million via Spain. But the infection rates in France are 21 times that of Morocco, so who knows what will happen.

_____________________

On the vaccination front, Morocco plans to vaccinate 30 million people—80% of the Moroccan population, yet despite "only" having given first doses to 8 million people, in the coming days the campaign is about to start vaccinating anyone over 40 years of age. This is an indication of Morocco's population age-profile—unlike northern European countries Morocco has a large percentage of younger citizens. Younger people are less susceptible to serious illness and death arising from the virus and despite the number of daily new cases having almost doubled since the trough after Eid (from 154 to 299), the daily death rate has continued to fall and is now at a low of 3, a figure that hasn't been seen since last July.

Multiple news sources report that another 2 million Sinopharm doses arrived in Morocco on 23 May which coupled with other recent shipments should enable the campaign to remain in high gear for some time.

[hav]

Thanks for all the updates Tim. Much appreciated.

[TheWarden]

Worth considering that the NOTAM current for Morocco says no flights before the 10th June.

There has been more discussions this week about the next steps

As we've seen across Europe, the vaccination rate of a population is not so important to opening up travel as the status of the travellers. Morocco has been discussing accepting EU Vaccine Passports things.

[barrier911]

My ferry for the 10th of June between Marseille and Tanger Med has just been cancelled.

[TheWarden]

Morocco's SoE extended until 10th July 2021

https://www.medias24.com/2021/06/03/...7f_p4BW0Me5D60

[priffe]

C-r-a-z-y the outbreak was essentially over before new years.
The actions taken are more hurtful than the virus by many many times.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/morocco/

[TheWarden]

Not really, the SoE is not the same as the restrictions, its simply the legal mechanism to allow curfews, travel restrictions etc.

As we've seen over the last few weeks, the restrictions internally have been relaxed.

Obviously the lack of ferries is an issue for vehicle based travellers getting in or out (if your not on one of the 54 countries banned from entry)

[Tim Cullis]

The arrival of fresh supplies of vaccine has enabled the rate of vaccinations to be accelerated, with now nearly 9 million first doses administered and over 5.5m second doses. But this is a long way from 'herd immunity'.

There's been a 100% increase in new case numbers in the last couple of weeks, and whilst Morocco is doing fairly well on death rates, there's a dangerous world out there, with some European countries experiencing 17 times the case rate/million as Morocco.

I can't see the government has much choice but to continue to suspend tourism.

[badou24]

I am thinking it will be well into 2020 before any travel to Moroc.
anybody thinking the same ?

[PanEuropean]

Originally Posted by badou24

I am thinking it will be well into 2020 before any travel to Moroc.

If you meant "well into 2022" (I suspect a typo in your post above), yes, I agree with you.

The country has to balance the pain of lost tourism revenue against the pain of possible uncontrolled infection, overwhelming of the health care system, and resulting civil unrest. I'm sure the Moroccan government is not happy about the lost tourism revenue, but I'm equally sure they are grateful they don't have the problems that India has.

The threats posed by this pandemic are rapidly receding in countries that have very high vaccination rates (using highly effective vaccines), but countries who have low vaccination rates and who are using less effective vaccines are still at great risk.

Michael

[TheWarden]

Travel to Morocco is still possible if your not from one of the 54 banned countries and you fly in

[Tim Cullis]

Originally Posted by TheWarden

Travel to Morocco is still possible

True, an American friend flew Royal Air Maroc from JFK to Casablanca a few days ago.

Other Americans are reporting they are being made very welcome but there's a degree of desperation from shopkeepers and cafe owners—they are the only flowers and there are so many bees.

[priffe]

Originally Posted by PanEuropean

If you meant "well into 2022" (I suspect a typo in your post above), yes, I agree with you.

The country has to balance the pain of lost tourism revenue against the pain of possible uncontrolled infection, overwhelming of the health care system, and resulting civil unrest. I'm sure the Moroccan government is not happy about the lost tourism revenue, but I'm equally sure they are grateful they don't have the problems that India has.

The threats posed by this pandemic are rapidly receding in countries that have very high vaccination rates (using highly effective vaccines), but countries who have low vaccination rates and who are using less effective vaccines are still at great risk.

Michael

Look at the curve, there never was any risk of "possible uncontrolled infection".
Even before vaccines
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/morocco/

The pandemic is rapidly receding in EU because the season is over, same as last year. Then even without vaccines.
India's death rate with covid is at 246/million (incidentally same as Morocco's), a fraction of the UK.
India has real problems of much greater magnitude to deal with.
Some of them ascerbated by actions taken against the virus.
When will the madness stop.

[Castlehe]

I strongly assume Morocco will open after July 10th, when summer holidays are starting in Europe. By then the level of vaccination will be very high and risk eill be low.

[PanEuropean]

Originally Posted by priffe

Look at the curve, there never was any risk of "possible uncontrolled infection".

Hi Priffe:

Sorry, I didn't word that as well as I could have.

I didn't mean to suggest "uncontrolled infection" in the sense that half the population would catch COVID and we would be in another 15th century Black Plague.

My concern - which I think is what is causing the Moroccan government to be cautious - is that the quantity of people who need hospitalization will exceed the available hospital resources.

This is what happened in Canada, and to a certain extent, what is still happening in Canada. In the best of times, hospitals only run with about a 15% vacancy rate, so it doesn't take much of a surge in sickness of any kind to push them over the edge. Then what happens is that other people who are "less sick" (people with cancer, people who need hip replacements, people who need heart surgery) can't get in-hospital treatment because there is no space for them.

I think that is the primary reason why governments in all the developed countries, and most mid-tier countries, have imposed lockdowns & restrictions. In the third world - the real "bottom end" countries in sub-Saharan Africa - there have been few lockdowns or controls imposed, and no massive rates of infection. But, in those countries, the residents have little or no expectation that health care will be available if they get sick for any reason.

Michael