I would also broadly agree with this response.

Additionally, the Libyans are unlikely to tolerate what Keenan sees as the driving force behind AQiM - creating a foothold for the Americans to send in their advisers.

The Egyptians, in turn, seem to be generally interested in having the Americans on their western, not southern border. Hence, they are happy tolerating low key smuggling activities, as long as these do not follow any political agenda.

The three incidents over the last few years (all reported as criminally rather than politically motivated) have now produced two, undermanned and undereqipped, small army outposts on the border with Sudan. They can't control the movement of people across the border along the stretch of 350km between Al Uwainat and the army base at Bir Tarfawi, but they can help monitoring the ins and outs of various groups and alert Cairo to any new developements.

It appears to me that as long as the bad guys carry arms for Gazaand drugs and people for Europe, there's noting to worry the Egyptians. But if they start plying their business in the name of jihad, the Egyptians will have to pounce down on them, and the thriving export-import business will suffer.

And finally, perhaps the most important factor, is logistics. It is more difficult in the Western Desert than elsewhere, with very few dissatisfied or unruly local groups around to help organising fuel and water depots.

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Roman (UK)