This is a general response to the question of whether it is safe in Mauri at the moment. At the start I've assumed that AQ-M did the hit on the Spanish. If that has been confirmed already, then I've missed it. The short answer is that for the moment I wouldn't go but the chances of being taken are low. I wouldn't go because the enjoyment factor would be a limited. I like to enjoy the desert.

What AQ-M have shown now is that they can take prisoners from tar roads near capital cities (Spanish in Mauri, Canadian diplomats near Niamey, Niger) and from the street in front of hotels. They are confident, bold and appear to plan well. If you're in their sights, there is not much you can do to escape. Driving in a convoy won't necessarily help. Driving during the day won't necessarily help. On the other hand, if they haven't made a plan to kidnap you or someone passing through at that time, your chances of free passage are excellent. The Spanish convoy was hugely conspicuos. It would take one lad with a phone to report the passing of the convoy at km X in order to make the hit 10km down the road. Easily done. And once AQ-M and hostages are all in the same car, there is not much that can be done.

There was a case a few years ago of German tourists in Mali who bumped into AQ-M in the desert. The Germans were held overnight and then released the next day so that they could not raise the alarm overnight. In this case it seems AQ-M had not planned to take anyone. They were either not set up to do so and/or their command structure is hierarchical and the troops can't make spontaneous and opportunistic moves. If true, that makes the chances of not being taken very, very much higher. Its only if you're in their sights at the time.

Am I right in thinking AQ-M has 4 people now (3 Spanish + one French)? The last session involved slightly more (2 Canadian + Edwin Dyer + another German?+ the Austrians). I think this is a spread betting technique. First it is a manageable number (I doubt they'd go for 32 again) to maintain in the desert and second, there are economies of scale. You can line them all up at once to phone families to argue for ransom. Doing one or two at a time would not be as efficient. So what does this mean? To me, near the start of the winter season, it suggests we could see more action. Perhaps 2 more. But probably not in Mauri.

If caught, its essentially a long, long wait and a lot of uncertainty. At the moment there is not much anyone can do, even if one's position is known.
It is plausible that the premature announcement that the Spanish had been found was simply that. The Mauri army knew where they were but could do nothing besides allow AQ-M free passage (that in order to keep the prisoners alive). That, I understand, is the basis for the passage of the Austrians who were taken from Tunisia to N Mali via Libya/Algeria. Its the same off Somalia. A destroyer can stand-off from a 30 foot yacht filled with pirates + hostages and do absolutely nothing.

There are some interesting, open questions. Why no kidnappings in Algeria or Libya? Is Gadaffi an important link for the ransom payments and, in response, have AQ-M made a deal to stay clear? In Algeria, perhaps it is the guides, who sign their live's and the lives of of their families away to look after their clients. But why exactly do AQ-M care about the guide and the guide's family? I don't understand that part.