Do you mean dead from bandit attacks, or dead caused by natural facts ?
I would say that from the first cause, 5 out of 500 travelers have the [mathematical possibility] of a violent death. [there is a formula for that].
The second cause could be something like 4/5 out of 1000.
The theory of probabilities has some complex variants, but you question is very intresting, but to find out what the real numbers are.., this will be a hard job, we first have pin-point -one year- and for a defined area, and than start our investigation.
The Sahara is quite abstract and Saharian secrets must have a very abstract level.
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