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Photo by Lois Pryce, schoolkids in Algeria

25 years of HU Events


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Photo of Lois Pryce, UK
and schoolkids in Algeria



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Old 18 Jan 2022
Tim Cullis's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
Case numbers in the UK do seem to have peaked, though caution again is advised as "infections" is partly a function of how many tests are done.
The fairly recent widespread rollout of free LFTs and the cessation of confirmatory PCRs tests definitely confuses the situation, which is why Zoe and REACT are probably better indicators. I've been regularly reporting to Tim Spector's Zoe Study since mid 2020 along with another 4.5 million contributors reporting vaccinations, tests, symptoms and general health.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
You also have the situation where the virus is now encountering a population who have either been vaccinated or have recovered from a prior dose.
For sure, but there's still also a huge number of totally unvaccinated zombies out there, especially in London where 22% have declined all vaccinations and only 54% have had booster doses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
Despite the apparent passing of the peak of infections the full effect in the UK is yet to be felt since hospitalisations and deaths are both lagging indicators, and both still rising.
Totally agree, and whilst we may be past the peak there will probably be another 1.8 million cases reported by the government in the next 30 days.

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Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
How it goes from here depends largely on whether the virus mutates again in a significant way to evade the vaccines. Clearly in the short term it is essential to tailor the vaccines to target Omicron and improve the current half life which stands at around 10 weeks. Without that we are looking at a further deadly wave in spring as acquired immunity drops.
Current thinking is that there will be another wave, probably late spring. Whilst hugely transmissible, it wasn't a case of Omicron evading the vaccines, more one of antibody protection (our first line of defence) dropping, which allowed infection. But the second line defence of memory B and T cells kicked in with vaccinated and boosted patients, preventing serious illness. It also helped that Omicron affects the upper respiratory tracts rather than the lungs, hence less need for invasive intubation ventilation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
Longer term I wonder if we will ever enter an endemic phase and live with it as we do with seasonal flu.
I'm fairly hopeful—that's what happened with Spanish flu, the remnants of which are still covered in our seasonal flue jabs. I read your article link on the relative dangers of Covid and flu and that was certainly true with Alpha and Delta variants, but I am hopeful that once over, this Omicron wave will be viewed as far less dangerous. And will have given the bonus of a pile of natural immunity to those who have chosen not to accept vaccination.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomkat View Post
One thing is for sure though, it'll always be with us now and the question is not whether we live with it but how. This really needs to be a global approach, because locking borders won't keep it out and lockdowns are socially and economically devastating.
I hope this won't come back and bite me on the bum, but I feel we are approaching the end game. We couldn't have wished for a better variant than Omicron—one that is eminently transmissible and at the same time far less virulent. In the last month both my daughters' families have been infected with Omicron—a bit difficult to avoid with schools and nurseries—but thankfully with minimal discomfort.



Here's how Omicron affects a 2.5 year Spiderman superhero

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