Genuine little keyboard warrior aren't you. Go on, post us another pie chart up, we are interested, honest.


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Well said, this thread has way too many trolls in it.

Well, I'd say you can rather fool people into believing that because they don't understand that you were actually proving something completely different.

But that's why checks and balances are so important in science (like everywhere). When we publish something, it'll have to go through a peer-review process, ie. a paper will be reviewed by a group of selected referees. Whilst for e.g. empirical papers that cannot imply an actual check of the estimations, it implies a plausibility check. But once a paper is published, it is open to scientific debate. And believe me, there's a lot of it. Often it involves actual replications of the empirical estimation to verify or falsify results. And often, wrong results are actually getting detected and dismissed that way. A famous example was Reinhart/ Rogoff (2010), a paper arguing for an unsustainability threshold of the debt-to-GDP ratio of an economy, which was dismissed as it couldn't be replicated. Long story short: Economics isn't a perfect science and we can't predict everything and sometimes we're wrong (so are engineers, medical scientists and physicists BTW) but at least in academia there are rigorous quality checks. The problem is only that those making political or business decisions are too often ignoring the academic debate, because it is slow and often doesn't deliver directly applicable results. That this fundamental research is yet useful, unfortunately not too many people appreciate.


They actually are fairly consistent, but obviously vary across the different samples used. The message stays the same: Young, urban, left-wing and more highly educated people are more likely to vote remain. That's not really too surprising, given that the out campaign is mainly driven by an anti-establishment sentiment. But I will have to add that the poll of polls might be a bit outdated: it's from last year. But generally the main result didn't change too much. That is: There tends to be a marginal lead for the in campaign, but it is likely to be within statistical errors. So it probably won't tell us much.

On a more general point on survey data, as empiricists tend to say: "Never trust survey data". It tends to be very biased as subtle changes in wording can have big impacts and also suffers from bias as what people say tends to differ from what they vote for. One can correct for some of the biases but there are obviously limits: If my data is a bit rubbish, I won't get great results. That's why I think there's a point in the criticism of these polls, and particularly the polls being over-quoted. I accept they are the only measure of public opinion we have, but I don't see how having another marginal poll published every other day should enhance anything.

Apologies for another lengthy post and remember

Goodnight!

Well put Paul, and believe me I am calm.
I hit the ignore button after my last comment! Silence is bliss!


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I think there are some interesting factors in many of the polls. For example, Remain routinely generates a bigger lead in telephone polls compared to internet polls, where their lead is marginal at best. It would be interesting to understand what is driving that.

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Paul "Every county of England, every country of Europe and every (part of every inhabited) continent of the Earth" 94% done! What's left? Central America, East, Central and West Africa, Australia & New Zealand

I agree. I was surprised by that as well. One would probably expect the opposite as, one could argue, an online poll would likely yield more radical results. But then perhaps it has something to do with the average age of the sample groups? I don't know. But also, I'm not a pollster, so this isn't exactly my area of expertise.

There are definitely some interesting insights the polls give. But perhaps the way they are handled rather than that they exist is a problem. It is the best measure of public opinion we have, but it is still often not a good one. Mainly because public opinion is extremely difficult to measure. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't have the polls, but rather that we should use them very carefully and I'm not too sure if that happens. One example: Many governments in Europe were clearly (and rightfully) alarmed by a surge in extremism so they reacted by adopting some of it. The result: They lost yet more votes. They just followed public opinion instead of shaping it and trying to explain why we do things the way we do and standing up to what they believe in. Polls are definitely useful for research, but in politics I think it's too often distracting politicians from what they should do.

YouGov’s Portrait of America polling

YouGov's "Portrait of America polling reveals some uncomfortable truths for Remainiacs:-

As well as rejecting EU-type arrangements for their own nation, and choosing Margaret Thatcher as their favourite international leader of recent decades, 59% of Americans also rejected President Obama’s suggestion that the UK should go to the “back of the queue” in trade talks if it voted to leave the EU.





...also follow the link and you see that less than a third of American's would support EU-type arrangements for the USA.

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and 30% of republicans voted to bomb a mythological city

Thus proving that 30% are idiots

Another $, another day:-
today it is the price of your Easyjet holiday which will sky-rocket according to our esteemed leader who has been delivering this message to the coralled Easyjet employees - the same company which leapt in with a letter to all employees with the usual blah, blah, blah.

While travelling in France recently I saw the piles of tyres and stocks of timber stacked at key "rond point" during street demonstrations.
Not something that is reported here though:-
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/05...nche-of-facts/
I also experienced the start of the queues at the fuel stations in the vicinity of Rouen, last Saturday.
At the time I thought it was just the rush to the pumps before Sunday closures.

Footnote: there are some very good contributions in the comments to that blog; far better than the junk perpetrated by the professional writers in the MSM for instance.

The same blogger tears into the stuff about pollsters (we all recall how well they did last year during the UK general election and how contrite those pollsters became after such monumental cockups made in their chosen trade).
https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/05...isinformation/

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Dave

Maybe they are on Salisbury plain in preparation for the vote next month?

Anyway, I can't imagine anyone would want to put their life on the line for that blue flag; no bodies repatriated to the UK were ever draped in the flag of NATO.
It does make quite a good aiming point though.

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Dave

Uncertain investors withdraw billions from Europe
Some US investors are looking at the Europe and thinking its a basket case
A lot of investors have cut exposure to Europe during the year. There are political concerns, political risks in Spain and Portugal and weakening data.
Investors are leaving because they are tired of low growth
Poor economic figures that suggest a eurozone recession is a possibility on top of rising brexit fears

Extracts taken from The Times

More reason to leave

Wayne

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The Balkans
https://new.horizonsunlimited.com/poi_entity/8417

...except for here in the UK where today where it was shown that Britain attracted record levels of foreign direct investment last year, research shows.

More than a thousand FDI projects landed in the Britain last year, according to EY’s annual attractiveness survey.


This is the largest number of projects secured since records began two decades ago. The survey showed that the UK was the leading recipient of FDI in 2015, with a fifth of all European projects heading to Britain last year, putting it ahead of Germany, France and Spain.


ha ha - project fear hasn't worked on the people with the money - again Dodgy Dave has been caught in a lie.

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One thing is certain.. both sides are spouting utter bollocks. No one knows what will happen either way. And no one will until it does or doesn't happen.

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Did some trips.
Rode some bikes.
Fix them for a living.
Can't say anymore.

Time to polish your tin foil hats

It's an interesting perspective and I empathise with their sentiment. Thing is though, unless the American people are going to get a post-Brexit referendum on their relationship with the UK, the poll is pretty irrelevant so not that uncomfortable reading for those intending to vote Remain.

Although I doubt that the US-UK relationship will be particularly high on anyone's agenda in November, what's more valid is what Trump or Clinton or Sanders (or Elizabeth Warren) think.

I'm not up on their opinion, assuming they've expressed one.

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Paul "Every county of England, every country of Europe and every (part of every inhabited) continent of the Earth" 94% done! What's left? Central America, East, Central and West Africa, Australia & New Zealand