I think it's got 30-50 years before it's phased out and replaced with all electric motors in vehicles.

If the planet is going to survive, it's what has to happen really.

I also think petrol will be a luxury and 5x the relative price of today.

It will be a sad day. Imagine how all the Steam era folk felt when they went obsolete overnight.

__________________
Did some trips.
Rode some bikes.
Fix them for a living.
Can't say anymore.

30-50 years? I'll settle for that Ted!

Interesting program on the radio the other day about how when cars / trucks etc took over in the 1920's / 30's, horses went from being beasts of burden flogged from morning till night by men only interested in how much work (and therefore money) they could get out of them to hobby animals, the vast majority of which were (and are) owned by women.

I somehow doubt there'll be gender shift in the ownership of old petrol powered vehicles when electric vehicles become the new norm but I suppose there will always be a nostalgic rump of enthusiasts willing to manufacture their own fuel from potato peelings or something. Once electric vehicles improve to the point where they're at least as practical as current ones with charging technology / infrastructure / economics etc sorted out I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the commercial sale of petrol eventually stopped on health and safety grounds.

It's likely to be a while though before I can envisage seeing electrically powered trucks hauling 40 tons of chicken guts or something at 80mph on the interstate non stop from coast to coast across the US.

Interestingly I just returned from a trip to Vietnam where the Bike is king as far as transport goes. But very noticeable was the many electric scooters for sale and in use, particularly by school kids of a certain age ( 14, 15? ) job to tell - all the adults look 16 ( what we doing wrong?)

It's quite clear they are years ahead of the UK adopting battery powered scooters, granted the "safety" & "regs" are no doubt more relaxed than UK & EU. I would estimate 75% of the kids with scooters had battery power and to be honest looked a lot safer on the road than the kids with the oversized bicycles! Pollution was vastly reduced too with 50 or so battery scooters rushing out of the schools at lunch time, compared to that of the 2 dozen or so petrol ones stopped at traffic lights.

My guess is it won't be long before "The demise of the internal combustion engine" is followed by "The demise of the electric motor" by some new power plant, currently being developed in a garden shed somewhere.....

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Regards Tim

Learning my craft for the big stuff, it won't be long now and it's not that far anyway

Fixed that for you g6snl

Perhaps "generations" are not the correct time frame for what comes next. Perhaps decades might be more appropriate, but the concept is sound at least in my mind. The creative, whether they be leprechauns high on meth, or others invent what is needed and wanted. Those who do not are relegated to the past or the future.

The sixties pixies, invented huge "we" social programs and huge "we" wars and huge "we" stop the wars. And then it changed and became "me" it was all about the "me" and in turn the yuppies individualized everything from communication to sex. (Think about that one) Anyway, the forthcoming advent of the public "we" transportation systems is the product the future "we."

The transformation to automated "we" transport will not dispel the allure of - as one French rider put it to me in a private message, so very accurately, "it is that last pop of my Norton's engine when I shut her down that keeps me scavenging parts and spending my fortune to keep her running." Viva La Norton.

I know he, the Frenchman, will never succumb to electric, and I would bet those of the "me" might just outnumber those of the "we" and probably have a lot more money. I will leave you to your own conclusion - xfiltrate

MHO, backofbeyond nailed it when he introduced the price of oil/gas factor - related to the demise of gas burning engines...one of the most difficult challenges for the automobile industry is calculating the future price of oil. As long as gas prices remain affordable, there will be a delay of total electric and hybrids will be having more of a market share. But when manufacturers determine that the market wants electric because the price of oil is too high, there will be made available electric engines. And, the public will buy electric.

Meanwhile the hydrogen engine - with a 300 mile range and 3- 5 minute refuel will be introduced. Who knows if the infrastructure to support hydrogen engines will be put in place? I do not.

As for automated cars, "guardian angel" systems that allow a driver to drive, but warn and take over to avoid accidents will begin appearing en mass around 2020 and totally automated cars, with operators choice of self driving or not, will be introduced for general public consumption around 2025.

Guardian angel systems for motorcycles are beyond my imagination and I would enjoy hearing from anyone in the industry who knows anything about the development of automated motorcycles. Perhaps 3 wheel motorcycles will be automated???

Somehow I foresee a positive correlation between alternative engines and automation. I am not sure why, but as the people begin to trust alternative engines, MHO they will also begin to trust automated vehicles. The gas engine represents the old established culture just as driving might represent another old established culture.

I remember in 1964, after graduating high school in Ankara, Turkey I entered a university in the States...and was completely lost when my peers began speaking about the number of barrels their carburetors had and went on and on about the silver discs called hub caps or wheel covers on their cars. It was all insane to me - What a waste of time....I sincerely believed the social conversations were being carried out in some code I did not understand and more important issues were really being discussed.... how could grown men - well almost grown men - spend so many hours discussing carburetors, and when that was settled begin all over again on the merits of wheel covers.

That was the old established culture I speak of. In Turkey we did not drive and had a chauffeur - provided for my Father, needless to say I had not yet learned how to drive so was not of the old established culture, and I saw cars as means of transportation only.

My interest in motorcycles began when I began to need personal freedom and that having a motorcycle was much like owning a horse in another old established culture.

Comments welcome.
xfiltrate

[QUOTE=xfiltrate;548686]

As for automated cars, "guardian angel" systems that allow a driver to drive, but warn and take over to avoid accidents will begin appearing en mass around 2020 and totally automated cars, with operators choice of self driving or not, will be introduced for general public consumption around 2025.

[QUOTE]

EU legislation mandated lane departure warning and collision mitigation on all new vehicles over 7.5 tonnes built after September 2016. Given the vehicle will brake automatically to minimise the effect of any collision I would suggest we are there now.

Andy