When will it get back to normal?
Obviously at the time of writing, the novel coronavirus has put a stopper on virtually all travel, people are stuck in countries, others are struggling through enforced quarantine every border they cross, and the situation has changed a lot since people asked on this board "should I still start my trip?" and others said "just go, it'll be fine".
The question is, when do we reasonably expect things to get back to something closer to normal - when should we plan to start the next big trip?
My own opinion, and I'm sure others will differ (this is just for discussion, not giving advice) is I don't expect to see any semblance of normality return before 2022. I know some are saying it'll all be over by Christmas (where have I heard that before?) but this is why I think it'll take a lot longer, and why even 2021 may not be a good travelling year: - The threat of the virus will still be out there, particularly in more remote areas, long after some semblance of herd immunity has been achieved in cities
- Containing the spread does not develop immunity and places that have contained it will still be vulnerable to subsequent flare-ups
- Only widespread availability of an effective vaccine will neutralise the threat, and news suggests that's 12-18 months away
- Global distribution of the vaccine will take several months, and may not reach poorer areas at all
- There may be a risk that travellers from afar may not be welcomed as guests but rather shunned as potential plague bringers, particularly in unvaccinated areas
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