I wonder if the forthcoming Yam T7 might be that machine.
Lovely 270° engine compared to the CB-X (at least in an MT-07 I tried).
As suggested, all they have to do is keep the weight low.

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Morocco Overland 4 (2025) • Trans Morocco Trail

I wish you are right about that but I expect the T7 to be relatively heavy (too heavy) and thus not the best option for overlanding/RTW trips.

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In the end everything will be fine. If its not fine its not the end....

I agree, as good as the T7 motor should be, it looks like the new bike is going to be quite heavy. Probably 180 to 190 kg. range. Looks to be based on the Super Tenere and may have many of the road going features as well.
(all add weight and complexity)

But it could easily best bikes like the Honda Africa Twin, GS1200 and some
big KTM's. So, should be a good mid sized ADV bike but for true technical riding, may be too heavy to manage easily.

In terms of competing with the 500X, the Honda wins on price as the Yam T7 is expected to be quite expensive. (around $10K USD) But with a 21" front wheel and bespoke off road geometry, the T7 should do well off road, even if it is a a bit porky.

after huge disappointment from Honda Africa Twin I wouldn't count much on spectacular machine from Yamaha as well.

If it can come in at < 190kg wet (same as a fuelled up Dakar 450 racer, albeit carrying 37 litres) I'll be impressed.
I didn't see any relation with the ST tank at all. And like an ST, the Tracer caters for road touring crowd.
T7 - at least in the current concept form - looks much more like a proper big trail bike in the XR mold.

I don't think the new AT has been a disappointment to Honda - it's sure better than the original one. Ask these guys.

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Morocco Overland 4 (2025) • Trans Morocco Trail

No doubt the Africa Twin is proving to be a great success for Honda. It's good for a big trail bike IMO, rides smaller, feels lighter than the competition (BMW, KTM, Aprillia, Yamaha Super Ten) for it's 500 lb. wet weight.
But it's still big, tall and heavy. Perfect for many, not for all.

But as noted, many riders will stick 85% to tarmac, so the T7 will have to be fast, smooth and comfortable on road to compete with the big bikes or even the middle weight BMW 800 or 800 Tiger.

No one wants to do RTW on a full Dakar bike, so concessions to comfort (hence my reference to Super Tenere earlier)will be made.

A full suite of electronic gadget add ons will boost price (ABS, TC, Elec. Suspension) but also make it more competitive with BMW GS and the like ... but for a lot less money. (new GS's now come in around
$23K USD, KTM not far behind )

If Yamaha can manage to have the T7 ride smaller/lighter than it's weight, that will help. For any sort of dirt road or track, should be OK, even loaded up. But get into deep sand, mud, serious rock gardens ... could be a problem. on the beast.

The 190 kg. weight I quoted is probably optimistic. But if not too serious off road is planned, then should be fine loaded up, even two up, if Yamaha lay it out correctly and get the geometry right and centralize the mass properly.

The weight on modern bikes comes from the use of BIGGER forks, BIGGER swing arm, stronger frame, spoked wheels. The engine is a tall wet sump lump, so oil pan hangs down quite far. Yam could go dry sump, but probably too late for that now ... tooling is done as the engine comes from previous model.

I think KTM leveled up already with Japanese bikes in regards of reliability so I'd rather get 30kg lighter 790cc Duke Adventure from Austria this time.

Nice bike ... but is a 790 actually in production? The one shown above is a a V twin. I've heard KTM are building a P-Twin for their new engine and lighter weight ADV bikes. Any valid links about what's coming from KTM?

If they build a 790 Duke single ... that would be interesting ... big Vibes?

Next up would be cost. What's that 790 going to cost? I'm guessing over $12K USD, vs. under $10K USD (estimate) for the T7 Yamaha.

IMO, KTM still have a LONG WAY to go to match long term reliability of Japanese bikes.

it's the same concept bike as yamaha T7 is, will be available next year.

KTM's secret 790 Adventure spied | MCN