It's far too early to say. Unfortunately, the occupying forces never had the diplomatic skills to engage a more lenient cadre of the Taliban (a term applied imprecisely to a variety of insurgents). They had to be painted as 'bad guys', with the America-led forces and weak Kabul government the 'good guys' for the media and morons back home. So the Taliban have been kept as 'bad guys' and have attracted a lot of very undesirable elements, jihadists from across the region (Syria, Iraq, Chechnya etc) who obviously have absolutely no interest in a stable, peaceful Afghanistan. Even if the Taliban leadership, who currently seem to be exercising restraint and have a nod of approval from countries such as Russia, China, Turkey, wanted to rid Afghanistan of such people, it would be a huge task.

There are some good signs though, the Taliban entered Kabul with seemingly little fighting, very different from the early to mid 1990s when (after another power vacuum triggered by the Soviet withdrawal and ending of American support of the Mujaheddin) the city was virtually destroyed by civil war. Seeing the rapid advance of the Taliban, it's very obvious that they enjoy widespread popular support. Especially surprising was how easily they took the north, traditionally bitter enemies of the Taliban. The Northern Alliance seems to have pretty much evaporated.

On the flip side though, this is a very complex geopolitical problem; although the Americans have made their characteristic mess of the country, it can't be blamed on them entirely; The Taliban receive a lot of support from Pakistan, who want to keep Afghanistan in their sphere of influence, and keep Indian influence out. Afghanistan's largest neighbour, China, is also keen to open the country up to Chinese infrastructure (trade routes) and investment.

The Wakhan area of Badakhshan, the part of Afghanistan you would be looking at from Tajikistan, was traditionally isolated from the civil war and Taliban control, so to see that taken by the Taliban is big news. They now hold more of the country than they ever have done. Another worry is Bamiyan, populated by Shia Hazaras. In the 1990s the Taliban committed various atrocities against them and it remains to be seen whether they will fall back into this. As far as I can tell, Bamiyan is about the last part of the country not under Taliban control, though as they are isolated high in the mountains surrounded by Taliban territory, I doubt they can hold out for long. My heart goes out to them.

Back before Bush steamed into Afghanistan, the Taliban brought a good measure of peace to the war-torn country as a whole (though they did not control the entire area). Of course, they came against a background of bitter civil war and committed numerous atrocities, as well as introducing a very hardline interpretation of Sharia law. But peace is in my opinion is the most basic expectation from a government. Westerners just cannot see that Afghanistan is a deeply traditional country and can't get past the medieval take on things like women's rights. As Churchill said, 'a bad peace is better than a good war'. It was possible to visit the country, though tourists weren't exactly flocking in.

So I think it could go either way; the Taliban run a fairly peaceful state with a degree of law and order through very hardline Islamic values that make Western liberals whine. If you are willing to follow these, a visit could be quite safe. The Afghan people are proud, chivalrous and deeply hospitable and no government will change this.

It could also go rather badly, with the 'Taliban' splitting into factions, with certain areas clear no-go zones due to the presence of some very unpleasant ISIS types who have no aim in life other than fighting.

Afghanistan has always been rather lawless, even in the heyday of the 1970s when long-haired, stoned Hippies crossed Afghanistan by bus and car ('driving ordinary Afghans into the hands of the Marxists' according to Chatwin). It will always be a destination for the adventurous, but it is a truly wonderful country to visit. Almost certainly, next year will too soon to make a call on this, unless you want to be the one testing the waters. Let's see if you can even make it to Tajikistan though.

Just for information, I drove across Afghanistan from Pakistan to Iran in about 2 months in 2009 / 10 and it was the most memorable journey I have made. I've tried to stay abreast of what is happening there, kept in touch with friends I made there (sadly all emigrated now) and also have a friend who until right now has been running regular package tours there. I long to go back and explore the parts which were too unsafe on my last visit; to travel the southern road through Zaranj, Lashkar Gah, Kandahar and Ghazni, and more of the central highlands. I'm patiently waiting.

EO

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.