On (1) I agree, Afghanistan is never going to be a great place for women by western standards. I too have lived in a Central Asian Muslim country, one where women were very much equal to men, and I agree the status of women in Afghanistan has less to do with Islam than with the prevailing tribal culture. That's not something you can change in 20 years, but then women's rights was never the reason for the invasion. In reality we have done them a disservice in this area by changing the expectations of many people, only for them to be dashed as the old guard return and with them, the old ways. But that is not something you and I can do anything about.

On (2) I believe it's unlikely the Taliban will want to be "sponsors of international terrorism" again. There's an inclination in the west to view all fundamentalist Islamic sects as the same, but the reality is the Taliban, al Qaeda and Da'esh hate each other. Even the Taliban themselves are an loose alliance of tribes. The leadership will be mainly concerned about cementing their alliance and their authority across the country than about acting as any sort of focus for other groups. They know this has only bought them pain in the past and frankly I would expect them to actively discourage it.

How "progressive" the current leadership turn out to be is questionable of course, but I wouldn't entirely write them off. They appear keen to court international approval and legitimacy (the lessons of the past, if nothing else they are not stupid) though of course they will always tend go an extreme interpretation of Sharia, and the actions of hotheaded young fighters in the outskirts, some of whom will only ever have known war, may be another matter. International players like Pakistan and China will no doubt attempt to exert their influence but most likely this will take the form of soft power - money and reconstruction in exchange for resources.

So yes, a chaotic situation for some time yet I agree, but perhaps there could be some glimmers of hope and stability (a bad peace being better than a good war and all that). Though the covid situation remains unclear. In February 2020, when I decided to postpone my trip for 2 years, I figured it wouldn't "all be over by Christmas" though the slow delivery of vaccines is making me wonder whether restrictions will be lifted by next year either. Perhaps it'll take that long for the political situation to settle down as well.